Getting to Know Patrick Peterson

[Manwiththeplan]

who are we rooting for at 1pm? for strength of schedule purposes..i can figure out the w/l teams lol

We're better off hoping the Skins and 49ers win today, if they do, we'll likely end up in the 6th spot. If Detroit wins, we can be 5th.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

They also paid Chris Gamble 6 yr / 50 million. Making him one of the highest paid CBs in the league.

Yea, their owner isn't cheap and really wants to win. If you don't know Jerry Richardson is the only owner in NFL history to be a former player (1 season though). On top of that he caught the GW TD pass in the 1960 NFL championship game. He's a native carolinian and wants that team to win a super bowl, so if he wants a Harbaugh/Luck combo, he'll make it happen.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

less than 1% isnt realistic

SDogo's got this worked out better than I do but the realistic answer is 6th. With a loss against Philly next week and no ties, we can't do worse than 6th.

 

[CanuckCowboysFan]

Not a chance Luck stays in school, especially when he is projected to be the #1 pick. NOT. A. CHANCE.

Well somebody has obviously not been following him. He has stated numerous times that his education is very important to him. He has said he wants his degree before he plays in the NFL. He had a 90% average in high school and is majoring in Architectural Design. With the uncertainty of the future of the NFL I don't blame him.

Not saying is the right decision, but it is what it is. Don't be surprised if he stays. Many people think he will, regardless if he's projected 1st overall.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Well somebody has obviously not been following him. He has stated numerous times that his education is very important to him. He has said he wants his degree before he plays in the NFL. He had a 90% average in high school and is majoring in Architectural Design. With the uncertainty of the future of the NFL I don't blame him.

Not saying is the right decision, but it is what it is. Don't be surprised if he stays. Many people think he will, regardless if he's projected 1st overall.

He's also said that if Harbaugh goes, he's gone and it seems that Harbaugh will end up in Michigan or the NFL.

Also you should never believe what a player says

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

I think SF SOS is at .5046
Ours is .5090


Heres the schedules and records. I didnt add the 2nd Philly game for us or Ari a 2nd time for them. Adding Philly as it stands now, 10-4 jumps our SOS to .5214
Adding Arizona another time to theirs makes them .4935

It might be a wrap on leaping the Niners

SF:
sea,sea 12-14
stl,stl 14-16
ari 5-10
no 10-4
kc 10-5
atl 12-2
phi 10-4
oak 7-8
car 2-13
Den 4-11
TB 8-7
GB 9-6
SD 8-7
Ari-




Wsh,wsh 12-18
Phi 10-4
NYG,NYH 18-10
Chi 11-4
Hou 5-10
Ten 5-10
Min 5-9
Jax 8-7
GB 9-6
Det 5-10
NO 10-4
Indy 9-6
Ari 5-10
Philly-

 

[Manwiththeplan]

We can't leap frog ARZ/SF. No matter what, we'll be behind one of them

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

We can't leap frog ARZ/SF. No matter what, we'll be behind one of them

We could have had the Cards win, and at 5 wins apiece we leapfrog the Niners on SOS, but its unlikely now w/ the updated SOS.

So I believe that game doesnt matter. We will leapfrog the winner of that game and the loser is picking ahead of us.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

We could have had the Cards win, and at 5 wins apiece we leapfrog the Niners on SOS, but its unlikely now w/ the updated SOS.

So I believe that game doesnt matter. We will leapfrog the winner of that game and the loser is picking ahead of us.

I've got theirs at .502 and ours at .511 (using the ESPN playoff standings data). That seems doable (though not too likely). Look how much Denver's SoS dropped after the late games -- from .527 down to .507.

 

[SDogo]

We could have had the Cards win, and at 5 wins apiece we leapfrog the Niners on SOS, but its unlikely now w/ the updated SOS.

So I believe that game doesnt matter. We will leapfrog the winner of that game and the loser is picking ahead of us.

If the Cardinals win there are actually several scenario's that allow us to win the SOS tie breaker with SF. This game is very important because it's impossible for us to win the SOS tie breaker with Arizona.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

1. Carolina
2. Ari or SF have to be above us
-------
3. If Denver loses to a deflated SD. Not impossible.
4. If Buffalo loses to a totally unmotivated Jets, I think they win
5. If Cincy loses to a totally unmotivated Baltimore, I think they win.

I think we are picking 3 or 4 and getting Patrick Peterson

 

[SDogo]

1. Carolina
2. Ari or SF have to be above us
-------
3. If Denver loses to a deflated SD. Not impossible.
4. If Buffalo loses to a totally unmotivated Jets, I think they win
5. If Cincy loses to a totally unmotivated Baltimore, I think they win.

I think we are picking 3 or 4 and getting Patrick Peterson

We have been eliminated for the 2nd pick and technically while not mathematically eliminated from the 3rd pick it requires a bunch of upsets and two ties. The same goes for the 4th pick.

Like I said, I will have a full update soon. If my damn server ever gets back online because I cant update my site to process the numbers.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

If the Cardinals win there are actually several scenario's that allow us to win the SOS tie breaker with SF. This game is very important because it's impossible for us to win the SOS tie breaker with Arizona.

Good work.

Since you're digging at least a level lower on this than me, would you mind posting the various scenarios later on in the week? I think a lot of people would be interested in it. And I haven't looked in detail at all at where we would draft if we were to beat Philly -- it seems like the range is about 7 or 8 to 13 but that's just a guess. Have you figured this out?

ON EDIT: Never mind. Just saw your latest post.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

I've got theirs at .502 and ours at .511 (using the ESPN playoff standings data). That seems doable (though not too likely). Look how much Denver's SoS dropped after the late games -- from .527 down to .507.

Go w/ yours.

If the Cardinals win there are actually several scenario's that allow us to win the SOS tie breaker with SF. This game is very important because it's impossible for us to win the SOS tie breaker with Arizona.

The teams we played that they didnt: Wsh, NYG, Chi, Houston, Ten, Min, Jax, Det, Indy,


Teams they played that we didnt: Sea, Stl, KC, Atl, Oak, Car, Den, TB, SD

Giants/Skins play eachother.
Bears/Packers - We played the Bears and they didnt, so go Packers
Some of these teams that we played and they didnt are playing teams that we also played and they didnt.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

We have been eliminated for the 2nd pick and technically while not mathematically eliminated from the 3rd pick it requires a bunch of upsets and two ties. The same goes for the 4th pick.

Like I said, I will have a full update soon. If my damn server ever gets back online because I cant update my site to process the numbers.

I'm surprised we can't overtake Cincinnati. According to the ESPN data, theirs is .570 and ours is .511. Would us losing and them winning change the SoS that much? Maybe we're using different data?

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

I'm surprised we can't overtake Cincinnati. According to the ESPN data, theirs is .570 and ours is .511. Would us losing and them winning change the SoS that much?

That doesnt make sense. Link?

 

[fanfromvirginia]

That doesnt make sense. Link?

Here's what I've been using. It has an SoS column, which I've been assuming is both the right metric and accurate but of course I could be wrong:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Here's what I've been using. It has an SoS column, which I've been assuming is both the right metric and accurate but of course I could be wrong:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false

I'm surprised we can't overtake Cincinnati. According to the ESPN data, theirs is .570 and ours is .511.

We lose, they win. The rest of the weeks games would have to unfold in an unusual manner for the SOS to change so dramatically, no?

 

[SDogo]

Here's what I've been using. It has an SoS column, which I've been assuming is both the right metric and accurate but of course I could be wrong:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false

It's pretty darn close.

I always have used the "projected" SOS when determining the draft order. This creates a more accurate projection early in the season. Being that we are entering the last week the difference between that link and mine is only .010%.

Like Buffalo, I'm almost certain is mathematically impossible for the Bengals to overtake us on the SOS tie breaker.

 

[SDogo]

We lose, they win. The rest of the weeks games would have to unfold in an unusual manner for the SOS to change so dramatically, no?

I don't see any scenario that allows them to overtake us on the SOS tie breaker. You are correct.