Going for it on every extra point

Galian Beast

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Consider the value of our offensive line (and a top caliber running back :muttley:)

Imagine going for it on every down.

First let's imagine a scenario in which we converted 100% of the time.

Last year ceteris paribus we score an additional 53 points on offense alone (not including any special teams or defensive touchdowns extra points because I'm lazy).

That puts us first in the league with 520 points compared to the previous first place team Green Bay with 486.

What's more vital I think is the pressure that puts on other teams to go for it and the advantage you gain if you can stop it even 25% of the time.

Now let's assume we make it 75% percent of the time and stop it 25% of the time (we're assuming they're going for it every time to keep up)... That still gives you a huge point differential all things considered.

It's a more aggressive style of football that I would like to see. I'd much rather see the team go for it when we're on the opponents 35-40. It takes 7 field goals to equal 3 touchdowns (with 1 point conversions). It would take 5 field goals to equal two touchdowns (one 1 point conversion and one 2 point conversion).

Do you know how many drives that is? If it is 4th and manageable the team should always go for it. And on 3rd down the primary goal should be to play it like you have 4 downs anyways.


If our defense is good enough and our offensive line is good enough, we should trust them and be aggressive on offense.
 
On average teams convert 49% of the time. Our line is great but it is not 75% of the time great, no offense is.

Not sure where you got that from but it would have been a small sample size. If you also compare it to other 4th down stands you see the average for good teams jumps a lot higher.
 
Consider the value of our offensive line (and a top caliber running back :muttley:)

Imagine going for it on every down.

First let's imagine a scenario in which we converted 100% of the time.

Last year ceteris paribus we score an additional 53 points on offense alone (not including any special teams or defensive touchdowns extra points because I'm lazy).

That puts us first in the league with 520 points compared to the previous first place team Green Bay with 486.

What's more vital I think is the pressure that puts on other teams to go for it and the advantage you gain if you can stop it even 25% of the time.

Now let's assume we make it 75% percent of the time and stop it 25% of the time (we're assuming they're going for it every time to keep up)... That still gives you a huge point differential all things considered.

It's a more aggressive style of football that I would like to see. I'd much rather see the team go for it when we're on the opponents 35-40. It takes 7 field goals to equal 3 touchdowns (with 1 point conversions). It would take 5 field goals to equal two touchdowns (one 1 point conversion and one 2 point conversion).

Do you know how many drives that is? If it is 4th and manageable the team should always go for it. And on 3rd down the primary goal should be to play it like you have 4 downs anyways.


If our defense is good enough and our offensive line is good enough, we should trust them and be aggressive on offense.

I dislike these simplistic generalizations on a concept. It's always about situations. If it's 4th and 8 on your own 22- you going to go for it because of a simplistic philosophy?
Goofy stuff. And you better prove your DL is up to the task to be put in difficult situations before you go with such a rash course of action.
Silly.

Edit: My wrong: I thought we were talking about 4th downs. Ha ha! That's what I get for downing a few and small-eyeing the thread.

Pray forgive.
 
Do you have to make 3 threads a day? This has been discussed ad nauseam, and 75% is laughable.
 
It's definitely an interesting thought, but it shouldn't go past that. A thought.

It just doesn't work.

Situationally, going for it is the right call, and I can even see Garrett broadening the situations that it is appropriate due to our OL, but just "going for it" every time is just bad strategy.

Imagine the pressure you're putting your defense under.
 
It's definitely an interesting thought, but it shouldn't go past that. A thought.

It just doesn't work.

Situationally, going for it is the right call, and I can even see Garrett broadening the situations that it is appropriate due to our OL, but just "going for it" every time is just bad strategy.

Imagine the pressure you're putting your defense under.

If you can convert 75% of your 4th downs and extra points, it's a no brainer. But that's like saying you can complete 90% of your passes.
 
Conversion rates for 2 pointers is near 50% league wide while 2 pointers are an uncommon play call. Field goal percentages from the new range are around 91% iirc. On numbers alone, it pays to go for two, if we ignore the currently relatively small sample size for 2 pt conversions. Although Bailey is as close to automatic as anyone in the league right now, I think that overall, the percentages (particularly taking the DC line and Dez/Witten's abilities into account) favor going for 2 - especially in outdoor stadiums.
 
If you can convert 75% of your 4th downs and extra points, it's a no brainer. But that's like saying you can complete 90% of your passes.

I'd be interested in seeing what team in what year in NFL history had the highest 4th down conversion percentage with a relatively large sample size.
 
Conversion rates for 2 pointers is near 50% league wide while 2 pointers are an uncommon play call. Field goal percentages from the new range are around 91% iirc. On numbers alone, it pays to go for two, if we ignore the currently relatively small sample size for 2 pt conversions. Although Bailey is as close to automatic as anyone in the league right now, I think that overall, the percentages (particularly taking the DC line and Dez/Witten's abilities into account) favor going for 2 - especially in outdoor stadiums.

47.5
 
I'd be interested in seeing what team in what year in NFL history had the highest 4th down conversion percentage with a relatively large sample size.

I would bet my 2 houses that it is not within 8% of 75%. Obviously, there isn't a large sample size because the risk isn't worth the reward.
 
I would bet my 2 houses that it is not within 8% of 75%. Obviously, there isn't a large sample size because the risk isn't worth the reward.

It'd definitely be an interesting statistic to see. I'd imagine a pre-1950's team has had a high percentage.
 
I would bet my 2 houses that it is not within 8% of 75%. Obviously, there isn't a large sample size because the risk isn't worth the reward.

So sure? If you read Easterbrook's column on ESPN during the NFL season, he has provided plenty of evidence in the last few years that the risk is in fact worth the reward. The fact that coaches often coach not to lose and to manage public perception rather than to win has more effect on the lack of attempts rather than the actual merit of doing so. If you punt and the defense fails to stop, it is on the players. If you go for it and fail, it's on the coach. This is a problem of public perception rather than reality.
 

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