Going for it on every extra point

[Ashwynn]

I cant wait for the 16-11, 8-3 scores to start rolling in. Going to seem weird at first. But like many things we will get used to them. but man the scores could be all over the place think of the multiples of 8 and the odd 3 thrown in. no more 7,14,21,28's were used to (heck I learnt my multiples of 7 from touchdowns) now 8,16,24,32 with the odd 3 thrown in. Going to start looking like high school basketball game scores.

 

[Hoofbite]

Conversion rates for 2 pointers is near 50% league wide while 2 pointers are an uncommon play call. Field goal percentages from the new range are around 91% iirc. On numbers alone, it pays to go for two, if we ignore the currently relatively small sample size for 2 pt conversions. Although Bailey is as close to automatic as anyone in the league right now, I think that overall, the percentages (particularly taking the DC line and Dez/Witten's abilities into account) favor going for 2 - especially in outdoor stadiums.

In the past 5 years, teams have made 94.1% of FGs attempted with the LOS being the 15 yard line.

 

[Fizziksman]

isn't the

In the past 5 years, teams have made 94.1% of FGs attempted with the LOS being the 15 yard line.

and i think the percentage is 97% when centered. With the added practice i see it going back to around 99%. Hopefully the Giants miss the playoffs because of this new rule so they change it back. Completely unnecessary change.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The decision calculus is easy. League average points on a kick will be .94. That means you have to convert 47% to equal the league average. Bailey probably pushes that envelope to .97 points per possession. Long story short if you can beat 50% conversion rates you should go for unless it's late game situational stuff no matter what. It's straight up points and you will score more points overall.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I cant wait for the 16-11, 8-3 scores to start rolling in. Going to seem weird at first. But like many things we will get used to them. but man the scores could be all over the place think of the multiples of 8 and the odd 3 thrown in. no more 7,14,21,28's were used to (heck I learnt my multiples of 7 from touchdowns) now 8,16,24,32 with the odd 3 thrown in. Going to start looking like high school basketball game scores.

Yeah instead of making the extra point 99 percent of the time teams will only make it 97 percent of the time. Basically everything we know has changed.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

In the past 5 years, teams have made 94.1% of FGs attempted with the LOS being the 15 yard line.

91 percent last 10 years. 94.4 the last 3 years; 96.7 last year.

And that's field goals. With a perfectly placed ball at a kicker's desired position. Who cares.

Also kicking accuracy has increased almost linearly over the last few decades. This isn't a big deal.

Can't wait for fun bad weather decisions though.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

isn't the


and i think the percentage is 97% when centered. With the added practice i see it going back to around 99%. Hopefully the Giants miss the playoffs because of this new rule so they change it back. Completely unnecessary change.

Can you back that comment on centered kicks up with anything? I don't know you and I have seen nothing that indicates that. Did you hear it or read it or what?

If you watch NFL practices the kickers practice 35 yards constantly already. The extra distance is not going to result in the same thing as the lesser distance due to increased difficulty.

I think some kickers are going to be better than others appreciably and it will be part of the game as opposed to the glorified passing of time it is now.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

For example what do you do if your kicker misses two XP in a row? That will likely happen a lot more now amongst the poor kickers. There were several kickers less than 85% in the 30s range and teams will have 40-60 TDs to sample from each. That type of thing easily becomes mental. This rule exposes poor kickers. I approve the increased challenge.

This change makes Bailey valuable so it helps us. Makes that contract they offered him look a bit visionary.

 

[Hoofbite]

The decision calculus is easy. League average points on a kick will be .94. That means you have to convert 47% to equal the league average. Bailey probably pushes that envelope to .97 points per possession. Long story short if you can beat 50% conversion rates you should go for unless it's late game situational stuff no matter what. It's straight up points and you will score more points overall.

If teams could beat 50% conversion rates the placement of the kick is irrelevant and the situation is unchanged from the previous placement of the PAT.

 

[Corso]

Anyone else notice Dallas has been in the top 10 in 4th down conversions since 2010? Never lower than 50%.

Who are you? You're awesome! Keep bringing the goods brother. I may cast my eye upon you...

 

[gmoney112]

Haha, i love it. Especially in inclement weather, it's going to be fun.

With our offense, depending on momentum and point differential, i'd be up for more 2 pt attempts.

Up by 4 whilst just driving down/scoring before half in a game with relatively bad conditions? I'd go for it all day erry day.

The percentages may not have changed "much" league wide, but it's going to add a bit of "strategery" in certain instances.

I'm not a statistician, but i'd imagine against weaker defenses, an offense that is playing incredibly efficiently could see an increase in odds when performing analytics on conversion odds and expected outcome with the new placement.

Nothing would be better than scoring, stopping the Eagles cold, and immediately driving down and scoring again with a 2pt conversion.

It's also comforting to have Bailey (you get a pass for the GB game, for now, Dan). So we're good either way.

 

[GoJacks]

It will be interesting seeing what teams do in the preseason. I'm sure everyone will be going for 2 most of the time.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

If teams could beat 50% conversion rates the placement of the kick is irrelevant and the situation is unchanged from the previous placement of the PAT.

Sure but over 2/3 of kickers were 100% on PAT. That is going to change. Once a coach watches their kicker meiss a time or two people will stop being mindlessly conservative.

 

[Nightman]

Sure but over 2/3 of kickers were 100% on PAT. That is going to change. Once a coach watches their kicker meiss a time or two people will stop being mindlessly conservative.

Every time the League changes a rule the coaches go as conservative as possible. When they added the seven yard penalty to missed FGs the League thought more coaches would go for it on 4th down. Instead more coaches started punting from inside the other team's 35.

Same with the 2 pt conversion. Coaches only go for it when they have to.

When they moved kickoffs back to the 35 I thought teams would go onside more when they got 15 yd penalties. Nope, they just kick the ball through the endzone.

Coaches never want to second guessed. That is their biggest fear, even above losing. If they lose "by the book" at least they have cover.

 

[guag]

I used to think Galian was a garbage poster, but then I realize he's a necessity here; he's really just like the bacteria and bugs that eat fecal matter in the wild and keep the ecosystem healthy.

that sig tho

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Every time the League changes a rule the coaches go as conservative as possible. When they added the seven yard penalty to missed FGs the League thought more coaches would go for it on 4th down. Instead more coaches started punting from inside the other team's 35.

Same with the 2 pt conversion. Coaches only go for it when they have to.

When they moved kickoffs back to the 35 I thought teams would go onside more when they got 15 yd penalties. Nope, they just kick the ball through the endzone.

Coaches never want to second guessed. That is their biggest fear, even above losing. If they lose "by the book" at least they have cover.

Everyone wants to talk about coaches and kickers like they all behave in the same manner. Some coaches don't want to be second guessed but some don't really give a damn. Kelly and Mumbles come immediately to mind. It also gives an avenue for coaches to set themselves apart. I won't deny the group think but it ebbs and wanes from coach to coach.

As I also said, once a kicker misses twice in a row, there is going to be a coach that loses faith in them and goes with the offense. The scrubs of the pre-Bailey era are testament to that. The only other choice is to go for it. There is no punt option.

 

[dogberry]

Can we drop kick an extra point from the two yard line?

 

[darthseinfeld]

Doesnt this belong in the Madden Forum?

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

Believe Steve spurrier tried this theory once...