Gosselin strikes again, grades

[RainMan]

There's no secret that Goose is the best at working his sources to predict the draft. There's also no secret that his grading system is skewed and rarely "makes sense." It is what it is -- whether he gives us an A++++ or a F.

 

[T-RO]

He gave the Broncos an "A" that's all I needed to read. The Tebow love-fest is nauseating....guy throws like a girl.

Some of you take things way too personally.

The Broncos had FIVE picks in the top 87 selections, so why is it a surprise they got an A?

And Tebow is a fine selection. Denver will try him at quarterback...and if he doesn't show promise...then you've got an elite H-back.

 

[RainMan]

I hear you buddy, I agree 100%.


To give up all those picks to get Tebow is just mind boggling. There was not a single player in the draft worth all of those picks, not even Suh. Just plain stupid move by McDaniels and Gosslin has a hard on for him all of a sudden.

I don't think it's that Goose likes or dislikes Tebow. If you look at his rankings, Tebow was a horrible selection at that point.

But as Adam has outlined many times before, Goose has a system to his grades. I'm not even sure he's all that subjective in his grading (hence the grade not reflecting whether he "likes" the player taken). If I'm not mistaken, it heavily favors having a ton of picks, especially in the high-to-mid rounds.

 

[RainMan]

Some of you take things way too personally.

The Broncos had FIVE picks in the top 87 selections, so why is it a surprise they got an A?

And Tebow is a fine selection. Denver will try him at quarterback...and if he doesn't show promise...then you've got an elite H-back.

I agree people take this too seriously. I think the issue, though, is that Goose's grades can essentially boil down to what you said -- the quantity of high picks.

Doesn't matter if you draft five third-round talents or five first-round talents with those five picks in the top 87 selections, because you'll get an A no matter what for the sheer volume of picks.

Seems like a flawed system. Had we traded next year's first, second and third round picks to net an extra first and third this year, and subsequently taken a kicker in the punter with the picks, we very well could have gotten a B+ or an A -- just for having so many picks. Who we picked and what we gave up, be damned.

 

[Beast_from_East]

I agree people take this too seriously. I think the issue, though, is that Goose's grades can essentially boil down to what you said -- the quantity of high picks.

Doesn't matter if you draft five third-round talents or five first-round talents with those five picks in the top 87 selections, because you'll get an A no matter what for the sheer volume of picks.

Seems like a flawed system. Had we traded next year's first, second and third round picks to net an extra first and third this year, and subsequently taken a kicker in the punter with the picks, we very well could have gotten a B+ or an A -- just for having so many picks. Who we picked and what we gave up, be damned.

Yea, that is a total dumb arse system when who you draft really doesnt affect the grade.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

DB you really have an obsession w/ Gosselin

 

[AdamJT13]

True measure of all drafts are 3 years down the road. He grades them based on his opinions and what he believes to be our needs and how we addressed them.

For the umpteenth time, all Gosselin does is average out his rating for the players you drafted. Here is what he wrote last year about his grading system --

I assign point values to each of the 500 players on my board. I had 10 blue-chippers on my 2008 board. They were worth 17 points apiece. The next tier of players received 16 points apiece and so on down. I had about 200 players at the bottom of my board who I considered free agents, and they were worth one point apiece.

Assigning values to each player simplifies my grading process. After a draft, I add up the point values of the players selected by each team and then divide by the number of its draft picks.

Historically, teams that average 12 points or better per pick get an A. Eleven points or better get the B's and teams that average in the 8s, 9s and 10s get C's. I have such a wide range for the C grade because the overwhelming number of drafts in the history of the NFL have been just that – average. Teams that average in the 7s and 6s get the D's and anything 5 or below merits an F on my grade card. ​

Of course, it's obvious that teams with higher picks usually will get higher grades.

The Chiefs had the highest average draft pick number this year (that's "highest" as in high in the draft, which means a lower number) -- 72.83. And guess what? They had the highest grade, the only A-plus. The Commanders had the lowest average draft pick number -- 160.0. They tied for the lowest grade, one of only two D's.


Here are the teams, listed by their average draft pick number, with Gosselin's grade --

[B]Team[color=white].........[/color]Avg. Pick	Grade[/B]
Chiefs		72.83	A+
Jets		85.25	C
Browns		100.50	B
Falcons		112.57	C
Ravens		113.00	B
Giants		114.86	B
Broncos		115.11	A
Lions		115.67	B
Saints		118.50	A
49ers		119.13	B
Bengals		119.67	C
Buccaneers	121.89	C
Texans		122.70	C
Seahawks	124.11	A
Chargers	125.00	C
Raiders		125.44	B
Cardinals	125.71	C
Jaguars		127.17	D
Packers		128.00	C
Dolphins	129.00	B
Bills		129.33	B
Cowboys		135.67	C
Steelers	137.40	C
Rams		139.00	C
Eagles		139.15	C
Patriots	141.25	A
Titans		143.11	C
Bears		144.80	C
Vikings		145.38	C
Colts		150.38	C
Panthers	159.00	C
Commanders	160.00	D

The 10 teams with the highest average draft picks had a 3.1 GPA. The teams with the 11th through 20th average slot had a 2.3 GPA. And the teams with the 21st through 32nd slots had a 2.17 GPA.

With most of the outliers on that chart -- teams that did better or worse than the teams with similar average pick numbers -- it's usually easy to figure out a big reason why just by looking at the specific pick numbers. The Jets had the second-highest average pick, but they had only one of the top 60 picks and only two of the top 111. The Falcons were fourth, but they had only one of the top 82 picks. Gosselin explained that the "C" grade has a wide range of average scores, and you probably can bet that those teams would be at the high end of that range. On the other hand, the Patriots had a low average pick, but they also had four picks in the first two rounds.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Everyone always says wait 3 years to grade it but I never see the grades of drafts from 3 years ago

 

[T-RO]

There are numerous -- equally valid -- ways of grading a draft.

Gosselin's approach is very valid...Score the players drafted by points and tally it up.

Other ways to grade a draft:
-How well did you draft given the picks you had (where you were seeded)
-How much value you got when you consider the trades, acquisitions secured with your picks. For instance, if you include McNabb as one of the Commanders picks, since that was how they spent their #2

So different people grade with different criteria.

 

[dbair1967]

For the umpteenth time, all Gosselin does is average out his rating for the players you drafted. Here is what he wrote last year about his grading system --

I assign point values to each of the 500 players on my board. I had 10 blue-chippers on my 2008 board. They were worth 17 points apiece. The next tier of players received 16 points apiece and so on down. I had about 200 players at the bottom of my board who I considered free agents, and they were worth one point apiece.

Assigning values to each player simplifies my grading process. After a draft, I add up the point values of the players selected by each team and then divide by the number of its draft picks.

Historically, teams that average 12 points or better per pick get an A. Eleven points or better get the B's and teams that average in the 8s, 9s and 10s get C's. I have such a wide range for the C grade because the overwhelming number of drafts in the history of the NFL have been just that – average. Teams that average in the 7s and 6s get the D's and anything 5 or below merits an F on my grade card. ​

Of course, it's obvious that teams with higher picks usually will get higher grades.

The Chiefs had the highest average draft pick number this year (that's "highest" as in high in the draft, which means a lower number) -- 72.83. And guess what? They had the highest grade, the only A-plus. The Commanders had the lowest average draft pick number -- 160.0. They tied for the lowest grade, one of only two D's.


Here are the teams, listed by their average draft pick number, with Gosselin's grade --

[B]Team[color=white].........[/color]Avg. Pick	Grade[/B]
Chiefs		72.83	A+
Jets		85.25	C
Browns		100.50	B
Falcons		112.57	C
Ravens		113.00	B
Giants		114.86	B
Broncos		115.11	A
Lions		115.67	B
Saints		118.50	A
49ers		119.13	B
Bengals		119.67	C
Buccaneers	121.89	C
Texans		122.70	C
Seahawks	124.11	A
Chargers	125.00	C
Raiders		125.44	B
Cardinals	125.71	C
Jaguars		127.17	D
Packers		128.00	C
Dolphins	129.00	B
Bills		129.33	B
Cowboys		135.67	C
Steelers	137.40	C
Rams		139.00	C
Eagles		139.15	C
Patriots	141.25	A
Titans		143.11	C
Bears		144.80	C
Vikings		145.38	C
Colts		150.38	C
Panthers	159.00	C
Commanders	160.00	D

The 10 teams with the highest average draft picks had a 3.1 GPA. The teams with the 11th through 20th average slot had a 2.3 GPA. And the teams with the 21st through 32nd slots had a 2.17 GPA.

With most of the outliers on that chart -- teams that did better or worse than the teams with similar average pick numbers -- it's usually easy to figure out a big reason why just by looking at the specific pick numbers. The Jets had the second-highest average pick, but they had only one of the top 60 picks and only two of the top 111. The Falcons were fourth, but they had only one of the top 82 picks. Gosselin explained that the "C" grade has a wide range of average scores, and you probably can bet that those teams would be at the high end of that range. On the other hand, the Patriots had a low average pick, but they also had four picks in the first two rounds.

Adam, thanks for sharing. He sent me something similar to this a few years ago, but didnt really explain it.

Did he send the actual ratings on the players too?