Ground & Pound

[Sydla]

Dallas 3rd down conversion in 2014 was in the top 3 in 2015 we were 26th in 3rd down conversions. It is not so much overall TOP since that stat can be misleading as teams milk the clock late in the games.

Simple question. If the 2014 defense had an offense that was converting 3rd downs like mad and the 2015 defense had an offense that continually spit the bit, then explain why the 2015 defense only faced roughly 1 play more a game than the 2014 defense?

 

[DallasEast]

no one will worry if zeke gets 1800 yards because his ypc is incredible.
murray's 1800 yards is the result of ~400 carries.
thought everyone was concerned with burning murray out in 2014.

we want zeke to last at least 5 years.
there are times when everyone knows you will be running like when you are running out the clock.
those carries can be taken by cheaper backs like morris, who is not a pass threat.

Interesting. So how many rushing attempts do you believe Elliott would pile up for 1,800 yards in a rookie season?

 

[Doomsday101]

If you look at TOP and/or defensive snaps per game, they both do not have a large difference.

Where are you seeing a notable difference in how long or how many snaps the defense is playing?

Again stats are not some tale all how things play out

Simple question. If the 2014 defense had an offense that was converting 3rd downs like mad and the 2015 defense had an offense that continually spit the bit, then explain why the 2015 defense only faced roughly 1 play more a game than the 2014 defense?

In many cases late in games you get garbage yards where the opposing defense is giving up small chunks of yards and not allowing you to attack down the field. There are a lot of meaningless plays late in games when the game in no longer in doubt. Even TOP coming out of 2 min warning, you have a lead the opposing team has no TO left you can take a knee and milk off 2 min. Those 2 min had no bearing on the game since it was over with anyway yet those stats are added to the entirety of the game.

To me that is the difference between those who live by stats and those who actually played the game.

 

[waldoputty]

Interesting. So how many rushing attempts do you believe Elliott would pile up for 1,800 yards in a rookie season?

If we really believe (1) Zeke is faster, makes better decisions than Murray and fumble less (2) we have one more pro-bowl type OL than 2014, then I would say he could get say 1 more yard per carry.
I know that sounds like a lot, but no one else has this OL to run behind.
People were saying things like the best OL ever...
If I remember correctly, I think Murray was getting better YPC until later in the season when he worn down?
If so, Zeke's YPC may even be better.

Murray needed about 400 carries to get 1800 yards so the math would be ~320 carries using the 1 yard guess.
BTW I think that is too many carries.
I would like to see about 15 carries per game and let Morris and DMC do some of the work especially in his rookie season.

 

[Sydla]

In many cases late in games you get garbage yards where the opposing defense is giving up small chunks of yards and not allowing you to attack down the field. There are a lot of meaningless plays late in games when the game in no longer in doubt. Even TOP coming out of 2 min warning, you have a lead the opposing team has no TO left you can take a knee and milk off 2 min. Those 2 min had no bearing on the game since it was over with anyway yet those stats are added to the entirety of the game.

To me that is the difference between those who live by stats and those who actually played the game.

You realize this hurts your argument right?

And again, you didn't answer the question. How is it that the 2014 team converted 3rd downs at such a high rate compared to the 2015 team and yet the 2014 and 2015 teams played roughly the same amount of defensive snaps. This isn't advanced stats here. It's simple addition.

Which defense do you believe faced more snaps in the 4th quarter of games - the 2014 defense or the 2015 defense? Which defense do you think faced more 2nd half snaps?

 

[Doomsday101]

You realize this hurts your argument right?

And again, you didn't answer the question. How is it that the 2014 team converted 3rd downs at such a high rate compared to the 2015 team and yet the 2014 and 2015 teams played roughly the same amount of defensive snaps. This isn't advanced stats here. It's simple addition.

Which defense do you believe faced more snaps in the 4th quarter of games - the 2014 defense or the 2015 defense? Which defense do you think faced more 2nd half snaps?

You want to play with the numbers fine all I can say is there are many games where late in the contest the outcome has been determined and those stats tend to be what many call garbage stats. You want to live by them fine with me. As I said there are those who know the game based on stats and those who have played the game and understand what I am talking about.

 

[Sydla]

You want to play with the numbers fine all I can say is there are many games where late in the contest the outcome has been determined and those stats tend to be what many call garbage stats. You want to live by them fine with me. As I said there are those who know the game based on stats and those who have played the game and understand what I am talking about.

LOL.

Play with numbers? I don't think you even know what that means. You act like these are advanced stats with elaborate equations. They are not. It's simple addition and like most fans who believe something that turns out to be false, they fall back on the, "Well I played the game, so I know more" angle. It's hilarious.

Further, you citing late game situations where teams knee on the ball would actually make your argument EVEN WEAKER than strengthen it. The 2014 Cowboys team was the team that was kneeling on the ball and artificially inflating their TOP numbers. Meaning that in reality, the defense was probably on the field longer if you take out those last 2 minutes. The 2015 team was the team that was getting kneeled on as we were losing a lot of games late. Therefore, the time the defense was on the field in 2015 was likely artificially inflated by the fact they were standing around 2 minutes of games a the other team was kneeling.

So I will ask again. You brought up 3rd down conversion rates for 2014 and 2015. Why is that despite having a much better 3rd down conversion rate in 2014 versus 2015, the Cowboys defense was on the field the same amount of time both years (and let's now take into account your 2 minute theory which actually hurts you rather than helps you)?

 

[DallasEast]

Murray needed about 400 carries to get 1800 yards so the math would be ~320 carries using the 1 yard guess.
BTW I think that is too many carries.
I would like to see about 15 carries per game and let Morris and DMC do some of the work especially in his rookie season.

So, a little over 5.6 yards per carry. That's doable. Elliott's contemporary, Adrian Peterson, has equalled or topped 5.6 twice in his career. He ran for a 6.0 average in his 2,000 yard 6th season based on a few more carries (348) and 5.6 ypc in his rookie season for 1,300 yards on 238 carries. In a way, we'll see how the young buck measures up to a great back like Peterson IF he has an outstanding rookie season or a very good rookie season.

 

[waldoputty]

So, a little over 5.6 yards per carry. That's doable. Elliott's contemporary, Adrian Peterson, has equalled or topped 5.6 twice in his career. He ran for a 6.0 average in his 2,000 yard 6th season based on a few more carries (348) and 5.6 ypc in his rookie season for 1,300 yards on 238 carries. In a way, we'll see how the young buck measures up to a great back like Peterson IF he has an outstanding rookie season or a very good rookie season.

I dont think he is quite AP, but AP does not have our OL.
He will probably get a few games where the D is worn down and he gets to pad his average.
Though at that point, Morris or DMC may be playing.

 

[Bleu Star]

And if people are worried about Elliott running for 1800 yards and being overworked because you can't let a TB play that much, then you just gave credibility to the argument made by those who said you don't take a TB at 4.

Our new bell cow.. you know.. that dude called Zeke the Freak... will make you smile. I can't wait to see those pearly whites.