Here Is What This All Boils Down To

[waving monkey]

I've read articles on this site for the last few years and I've been paying extra close attention in the last few weeks and I'm starting to see consistent trends emerge with the comments here.

• Have to draft Willis! Have you seen his SPARQ?!?
• Don't take CB early, there are SO many in this draft.
• Imagine our secondary with a monster like Obi!

I've never posted before but these lines of thought caused me to write this out today. I'm afraid most of these are missing the point of the draft which is to upgrade your team. The basic principle is that if you have a player at position A that is a 70/100 player and you have a player at position B that is a 95/100 player and the draft provides an option of a 98 at both positions, your biggest improvement to your team is to take the player that improves you 28 points instead of 3. Yes, I know this isn't Madden and it's not quite that cut and dry but the point remains the same.

We need to look at how each prospect would slot into our current depth chart to see where we can get the most value from this draft.

Our depth chart right now: (which is a little tricky with guys like Crawford and Irving moving from 3T to LDE and Lawrence not having an official home and RDE or LDE)

• RDE: Mayowa, Tapper, Moore? Maybe Lawrence? We have numbers here but low talent/unproven.
• 1T: Thornton and Paea - will battle in TC for starting role
• 3T: Collins and Crawford - will battle in TC for starting role
• LDE: Lawrence and Irving - Ideally Lawrence can be our RDE and Irving can start here but we have little depth at LDE after these two outside of pushing Crawford back outside which isn't his ideal position.

After all this for the sake of ease, let's narrow the starting 4 down to this.

• RDE: Mayowa
• 1T: Thornton
• 3T: Collins
• LDE: Lawrence
  
  http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/4/14/15307906/here-is-what-this-all-boils-down-to

 

[Risen Star]

Now change that to...

Tapper
Thornton
Collins
Willis


....and ask yourself how teams will manufacture any yards against that kind of front?

 

[Risen Star]

Or even better....

Tapper
Tomlinson
Collins
Willis

Doomsday.

 

[AsthmaField]

I'm sort of coming around to Willis a little bit ... but do not want Obi at all. He's a combine monster, not a football playing monster

 

[TheFinisher]

I'm sort of coming around to Willis a little bit ... but do not want Obi at all. He's a combine monster, not a football playing monster

Ehh, Obi gets a lot of hate because with his measurables people expect him to be a top 15 player on tape.

He's more of a day 2 guy on tape and needs to trust his instincts more, but he definitely shows impressive range and coverage ability at that size. Some teams even evaluated him as a CB. He's a matchup guy against the new age TEs/big WRs

 

[TheDuke]

Or even better....

Tapper
Tomlinson
Collins
Willis

Doomsday.

That's what I'm talking about right there.

 

[tyke1doe]

If we take Obi Day 2, fine. Just not Day 1.

 

[AsthmaField]

Ehh, Obi gets a lot of hate because with his measurables people expect him to be a top 15 player on tape.

He's more of a day 2 guy on tape and needs to trust his instincts more, but he definitely shows impressive range and coverage ability at that size. Some teams even evaluated him as a CB. He's a matchup guy against the new age TEs/big WRs

Gotcha... I still don't think he's a very good football player. I don't think that because he ran fast either. I think that because of how he plays football

 

[TheFinisher]

Gotcha... I still don't think he's a very good football player. I don't think that because he ran fast either. I think that because of how he plays football

What about him makes you say he's not a good football player?

Because his tape is just as good as Byron Jones was

 

[AsthmaField]

What about him makes you say he's not a good football player?

Because his tape is just as good as Byron Jones was

I disagree. Obi's reactions are slooooow. His initial recognition of what the offense is trying to do to him is poor. He takes loads of false steps and just doesn't appear to have football instincts for crap.

I saw none of that with Jones TBH.

 

[Alexander]

Now change that to...

Tapper
Thornton
Collins
Willis


....and ask yourself how teams will manufacture any yards against that kind of front?

That is frightening.

I think some teams would just forfeit than deal with that murderer's row.

 

[Alexander]

What about him makes you say he's not a good football player?

Because his tape is just as good as Byron Jones was

He is not a complete scrub.

The issue is people are raising him up to the sky and ascribing traits to him that simply do not show up when you watch him beyond highlights.

If he was just a normal safety, like say Josh Jones or Marcus Maye, nobody would care.

But he is definitely getting overinflated because of work out numbers.

 

[Alexander]

I'm sort of coming around to Willis a little bit ... but do not want Obi at all. He's a combine monster, not a football playing monster

Willis is not a player I can warm up to.

I have a set value for a guy like him.

To me, he is another LDE only. I don't want that before the 3rd.

 

[RS12]

Imagine our secondary with a monster like Obi!

Dont want to. More like, imagine a FS playing without instincts.

 

[gmoney112]

The chances are pretty good that BPA is going to be an edge player or DB.

Just take the better player for the team.

It's not complicated.

 

[Alexander]

The chances are pretty good that BPA is going to be an edge player or DB.

Just take the better player for the team.

It's not complicated.

It is if you really don't know what is best for the team and you are looking at it from the wrong perspective.

I really hope they took a critical look at this team, with particular concentration on the playoff loss, before making up their minds on a course of attack.

It is one thing to react to offseason FA losses. It is another to forget why one of your better teams over the last 20 years failed. That loss was because we could not compete defensively, because of no pass rush. Same thing happened in 2014 against the same team.

 

[gmoney112]

It is if you really don't know what is best for the team and you are looking at it from the wrong perspective.

I really hope they took a critical look at this team, with particular concentration on the playoff loss, before making up their minds on a course of attack.

It is one thing to react to offseason FA losses. It is another to forget why one of your better teams over the last 20 years failed. That loss was because we could not compete defensively, because of no pass rush. Same thing happened in 2014 against the same team.

The thing is, pass defense isn't *only* pass rush. We need to do as much for the pass rush as is logically possible, but the majority of the snaps an NFL team will have 5 DB's on the field. That's one reason why NE pursues #1 CB's and takes a DB high in the draft nearly every year.

In the GB game, obviously the pass rush was bad (i'm actually withholding a little judgment because the crap GB got away with was egregious, our pass rush should have been good enough. period), but in a game that close you could also say one more stop by a DB and we win it as well.

Depending on who's there in the 1st, if there's a similarly graded DE as a DB, then it should absolutely be the DE. But i'm not taking a DE that's graded a tier below a DB. If people want to talk about drafting for need, that's how you miss on talented players.

It's going to be interesting to see how they draft this year. I agree with some post you had before at the talent range in this draft. This draft will separate the wheat from the chaff. I'm hoping the crazy draft last year, and the value we got in Brown/Collins as well as the Zeke/Dak super combo, is symbolic of an improvement in our drafting process.

 

[Alexander]

The thing is, pass defense isn't *only* pass rush. We need to do as much for the pass rush as is logically possible, but the majority of the snaps an NFL team will have 5 DB's on the field. That's one reason why NE pursues #1 CB's and takes a DB high in the draft nearly every year.

They take them every year and look what has happened to them. Bust after bust after bust.

If that were the secret to their success, Cyrus Jones, Jordan Richards, Darryl Roberts, Jemea Thomas, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner, Alfonzo Dennard, Ras-I Dowling etc. would all have been on the team the last few years and making a difference in winning more. Most have been complete washouts and a few were only okay contributors.

DBs are hard to evaluate, and the Patriots, thanks to their pro personnel department and their lack of fear of veterans have overcome draft busts that would bring most teams to their knees. They bought free agents and lucked out on UDFAs.

So using NE as a blueprint really doesn't work.

In the GB game, obviously the pass rush was bad (i'm actually withholding a little judgment because the crap GB got away with was egregious, our pass rush should have been good enough. period), but in a game that close you could also say one more stop by a DB and we win it as well.

Depending on who's there in the 1st, if there's a similarly graded DE as a DB, then it should absolutely be the DE. But i'm not taking a DE that's graded a tier below a DB. If people want to talk about drafting for need, that's how you miss on talented players.

It's going to be interesting to see how they draft this year. I agree with some post you had before at the talent range in this draft. This draft will separate the wheat from the chaff. I'm hoping the crazy draft last year, and the value we got in Brown/Collins as well as the Zeke/Dak super combo, is symbolic of an improvement in our drafting process.

This is a game won in the trenches. I know people like to pretend it doesn't, but it is entirely true.

Fix the DL. Make it a strength. Then you can play around with DBs. You start building from the outside in, you are just waiting to be beaten.

I get me a DE and more help at DT and I go to war.

We cannot ignore the secondary this year simply because we are in a position where the bodies on the roster dictate we take them.

But all in all, the primary focus should be to start on the line. A secondary centric draft would be a huge mistake.

 

[OUCowboy]

I disagree. Obi's reactions are slooooow. His initial recognition of what the offense is trying to do to him is poor. He takes loads of false steps and just doesn't appear to have football instincts for crap.

I saw none of that with Jones TBH.

I have to agree with your assessment of Obi. The film I have seen of his games did not leave me impressed at all. He may be able to run fast and all that, but he always seemed to be late to the ball.

 

[gmoney112]

They take them every year and look what has happened to them. Bust after bust after bust.

If that were the secret to their success, Cyrus Jones, Jordan Richards, Darryl Roberts, Jemea Thomas, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner, Alfonzo Dennard, Ras-I Dowling etc. would all have been on the team the last few years and making a difference in winning more. Most have been complete washouts and a few were only okay contributors.

DBs are hard to evaluate, and the Patriots, thanks to their pro personnel department and their lack of fear of veterans have overcome draft busts that would bring most teams to their knees. They bought free agents and lucked out on UDFAs.

So using NE as a blueprint really doesn't work.



This is a game won in the trenches. I know people like to pretend it doesn't, but it is entirely true.

Fix the DL. Make it a strength. Then you can play around with DBs. You start building from the outside in, you are just waiting to be beaten.

I get me a DE and more help at DT and I go to war.

We cannot ignore the secondary this year simply because we are in a position where the bodies on the roster dictate we take them.

But all in all, the primary focus should be to start on the line. A secondary centric draft would be a huge mistake.

It's not "secondary centric", it's defensive talent centric. There's a difference.

The Patriots have a model for their defense and it mostly centers around pass coverage, that's why they have a good defense just about every year. They're notoriously cheap, and they know secondary are expensive positions. They like to get a #1 guy, and then they fill out most of the guys with high picks, guys with actual talent they can get on the cheap.

Their pass defense is almost a direct reflection of their coverage. The pass rush mainly comes from deception in their hybrid scheme.

Yeah, the game is mostly won in the trenches, but in this league you have to have guys that can cover/force turnovers. It's trending towards a spread em out WR, quick step drop and release league. I wouldn't be surprised if this last year had the quickest "time before release" in history. Maybe it's a fad, maybe it isn't. But, in the NFC, if you don't have guys that can cover quick release, high percentage throws, you're going to get smoked.

I know people like to pretend the pass rush is the sole, determining factor in how well you defend the pass, but it's entirely false. The base defense has turned into a nickel alignment. There's a reason. That's also why NYG brought in a handful of DB's instead of just relying on their pass rush.

The primary focus should be on the line, yeah. But, ignoring half your defense isn't how you go about it.