Here's the Roy Williams Problem

[Gadfly22]

My comment is not specifically regarding Roy Williams, but that percentage will depend heavily on the system and the type of receiver. Chad Ochocinco, for example, has reached 60 percent in only one season (2005). He's usually around 55 percent.

And by the way, Calvin Johnson has caught 50.5 percent, 51.7 percent and 49.3 percent in his three seasons.

Obviously, which is why I hedged on West Coast receivers. And why the QB throwing the ball will count for a tremendous amount also (which Calvin Johnson might attest to, certainly in 2009).

But RW struggles to even get close to 50%, having done it in only in 2 of his 6 seasons (2006 and 2007). And I think that suggests he might not develop into the kind of productive WR that Garrett would like to have in his offense.

 

[Hostile]

Those 7 TDs weren't a result of him doing anything special, outside of the Tampa td the rest couldve been made by any run of the mill receiver.

For the life of me I can't figure out why I should care about TDs being special. I want TDs. I could care less about how special they are. I don't watch TV and say, "oh, that TD was special."

 

[Future]

I'm sure that playing with such terrible QBs in Detroit really brought those numbers down and Tony flat out missed him a BUNCH this season. I can think of 2 TDs off of the top of my head.

 

[Hostile]

6 of which were inside the opponents 10 yard line.

9 yards or less? Roy's a player.

10 or more? He's a dud.

TDs are twice as valuable as FGs plus you can get an extra point.

I honestly don't care about where they are scored from as long as we score. I don't care which player does it as long as we score. I don't care which players get impressive stats as long as we win.

I play fantasy football, but I don't let it cloud my judgment.

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

I think Hutchinson should start because I read where he would have been a top 5 pick in the draft had he kept playing football and not gone to baseball.

Besides, did you see that Jacksonville game? He was awesome.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Do stats tell you this? Because Mike Furry is a bum. And I agree. His passing yards were inflated due to Mike Martz system. But put stats aside. The guy was a good receiving threat in Detroit. I saw him make several one handed catches all down the field. There's talent there. He didn't just pile stats up in Detroit. He made some amazing catches. And btw, I wouldn't consider Jon Kitna the most accurate qb in history. Especially if we want to bring up stats he had more INT's than TD's as a Lion.

If posts on this board don't tell you enough, let me re-irate it. This is a "What have you done for me lately" Cowboys board.

 

[Gadfly22]

I'm sure that playing with such terrible QBs in Detroit really brought those numbers down and Tony flat out missed him a BUNCH this season. I can think of 2 TDs off of the top of my head.

Well, Kitna completed 62.4% of his passes in 2006 and 63.3% in 2007 -- for over 4,000 yards each year. Not sure you want to call his performance "terrible".

And all QBs "miss" on occasion, with lousy QBs missing more and good QBs missing less. And Romo's stats say that he's one of the better QBs in the NFL.

 

[tunahelper]

After trading a 1st and a 3rd to himself in order to be able to get him.

I wonder if Ray Sherman will speak frankly about Roy's performance?

 

[wileedog]

TDs are twice as valuable as FGs plus you can get an extra point.

I honestly don't care about where they are scored from as long as we score. I don't care which player does it as long as we score. I don't care which players get impressive stats as long as we win.

I play fantasy football, but I don't let it cloud my judgment.

I thought it was a pretty good OP. When you are only successful 44% of the time the QB throws you the football you are hurting the offense, not helping it. Yes he scored 7 TDs, but how many more could we have scored were it not for drives that stalled because Roy dropped a pass or read the defense wrong?

Heck IIRC if the defense doesn't bail us out a Roy Williams drop against NO on third down might have cost us the game and the season.

At least more thought went into this than Roy sucks! Trade him for Larry Fitzgerald and a 1st!!

 

[Rampage]

Patrick Crayton scored 7 tds in 2007

 

[Hostile]

I thought it was a pretty good OP. When you are only successful 44% of the time the QB throws you the football you are hurting the offense, not helping it. Yes he scored 7 TDs, but how many more could we have scored were it not for drives that stalled because Roy dropped a pass or read the defense wrong?

Heck IIRC if the defense doesn't bail us out a Roy Williams drop against NO on third down might have cost us the game and the season.

At least more thought went into this than Roy sucks! Trade him for Larry Fitzgerald and a 1st!!

I have simply reached saturation deafness regarding this topic. We have 53 players and 12 coaches plus a scouting department and we're still focused on 1 trade. I just don't care anymore whether it is a good post or not. It is mind numbingly repetitive whining.

 

[Hostile]

Patrick Crayton scored 7 tds in 2007

Beijing is the capital of mainland China.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

In 2009, RW was targeted as receiver 86 times and made 38 receptions -- i.e., he caught 44% of the passes thrown to him.

Now a lot depends on the QB, the throw, the situation, etc. But looking back over his history, RW caught 44% of the passes thrown to him in 2008, 60.5% in 2007 (his best percentage), 54% in 2006, 48% in 2005 and 46% in 2004 (his rookie year).

Ogletree caught 7 of 8 passes in 2009 (87.5%) but that's a really small sample and not a fair comparison.

Austin caught 81 of 124 in 2009 -- 65%.

What's "normal"? I don't think there is a "normal" since a West Coast WR might catch a much higher percentage of shorter, quicker routes. But take Anquan Boldin as a comparable -- a quality receiver, #2 to Fitzgerald, being thrown to by an accurate QB in a non-West Coast offense.

Boldin recorded 84/127 (66%) in 2009, 86/126 (68%) in 2008, 71/99 (71.7%) in 2007, 83/152 (54.6%) in 2006, 102/171 (59.6%) in 2005, 56/104 (53.8%) in 2004 and 101/165 (61%) in 2003.

In short, as a rule of thumb, I think you have to expect a starting WR to catch about 60% of the passes thrown his way -- maybe 65% in a good year.

Roy Williams has hit the 60% mark only once in his career -- barely, in 2007. He generally hovers around 50% and below. So I wouldn't expect a huge turnaround in his dependability in 2010. He's just not that kind of receiver.

If you want someone closer to dependable, start Crayton -- 37/67 (55%) in 2009, 39/70 (55.7%) in 2008, 50/81 (61.7%) in 2007, 36/48 (75%) in 2006, 22/35 (62.8%) in 2005 and 12/15 (80%) in 2004.

all that tells me is that he is not good at getting separation. he is a long strider that needs a lot of time to get down field, he is not overly fast and has problems getting separation in shorter routes and he is not as good as Irvin in using his body to shield defenders. he is an average WR who thinks he is a top 3 WR in the league and doesn't have the mental toughness to accept what he is.

that's one of the main reasons ROmo had to throw away from him to keep the ball away from defenders. Crayton does a really good job of shielding the defender to make the catches.

unfortunatley he is here one more year, 40+ and 600 yards and 9 mill later he is gone.

 

[Rampage]

Beijing is the capital of mainland China.

hey i'm just saying an average wr like Crayton can do just as good as Roy has. don't get mad at me cause you pumped up one of the worst trades Jerry has ever made.

 

[trueblue1687]

I hate even responding to this thread, because you are gonna think one way or another and nothing changes that. With that said, Roy has only played a full 16 games ONCE in his career. That was the year he caught 82 balls for 1300+ yards. If you look at his other seasons and extrapolate his catches per game...you can see he's been good for about 4 or 5 per game throughout his career. He has scored about 7 or 8 times each season. He is what he is. They're just gonna have to accept what he can do and either use him that way or pay him to watch. He's capable of more than we saw, but it's up to Garrett and Romo to do their part too. He is not and never has been a deep threat. He is a slant, YAC receiver. Think of him as the inverse of Witten. Roy catches fewer passes but can run like hell. Witten catches more passes and his legs turn to wood and he falls down or gets clobbered by a 190lb corner.:laugh2:

 

[CF74]

http://i185.***BLOCKED***/albums/x208/samck4/Cowboys/roysunset.jpg

And here I was kicking myself for thinking I was jinxing him with my old sig, I even removed it midseason...:

 

[baj1dallas]

Good point and I agree that you can't expect a sudden shift in his numbers or the way he plays. OTOH if he does manage to catch close to 60%, or at least 55% of the passes thrown at him next season, it should make the team better. I don't think that's unreasonable either. He's never been the "reliable possession type" receiver, but he didn't seem to have the problem with running the wrong route either, at least not as much.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

I disagree. Well not with all but about his stats being inflated. He was a solid receiver in Detroit. I don't know about his pass to drop ratio but that guy made some AMAZING catches as a Lion. I just want him to make plays and he at one point was capable of that. Stats are just that. Stats. Stats don't win games.

Detroit? I don't think that's saying much. I'm ok with one thing about Roy.
Jerry felt he was able to show owens the door.

 

[Kaika]

I disagree. Well not with all but about his stats being inflated. He was a solid receiver in Detroit. I don't know about his pass to drop ratio but that guy made some AMAZING catches as a Lion..

Then whenever he's in let Kitna QB .

 

[Gadfly22]

And just to clarify: I'm not complaining about the trade (I thought it was expensive at the time, but I also liked the idea of adding RW) nor am I in any way implying that RW should be released (because he won't be).

My point is simply that it's unlikely that Wade, Garrett, Jerry or anyone else is going to turn RW into the high-percentage receiver he's never been. But maybe they can find other ways to maximize his production (though I have to think they've already been trying to do that since last year).