How large of a role will Dunbar have?

[Galian Beast]

This is an interesting element in my mind.

Can we have Lance Dunbar emulate Darren Sproles' role here in Dallas? And how many touches would he need in order to make him that effective?

If we looked to replicate New Orlean's use of their running backs, they similar to us have 4.

Mark Ingraham
Pierre Thomas
Darren Sproles
Chris Ivory (no longer with the saints)

Mark Ingraham is their main rusher and Pierre Thomas isn't too far behind him. Obviously Ingraham would be DeMarco Murray in this instance, but Thomas could be either Tanner or Randle. Sproles would be Dunbar, and Ivory again would be either Tanner or Randle.

This RBC didn't go to the ground all that many more times than we did. We were 31st in rushing attempts, and the Saints were 29th. We were both a bit better the year before that.

The Saints ran for the same amount of attempts both years. 431 times. Which is about 26 times per game.

Maybe that is the real answer here. That we should expect Murray to carry the rock 20 times per game, especially if we want him to stay healthy. That we should maybe let Murray and Tanner split drives, and let Dunbar be the full time 3rd down running back, and perhaps let Randle be the red zone or goal line running back. He certainly has a nose for the endzone.

 

[ferrispata]

I am with you. I think we need to make sure that Dunbar gets touches every game. He is dynamic and needs to be out there on occasion. He still has to prove himself in regular season and make sure that he holds onto the ball, but I think he needs to get 5-8 touches a game and see where that leads.

 

[jobberone]

We ran 1049 offensive plays last year and 658 were passes and 355 were rushes. Our opponents ran 441 rushing plays BTW. That's roughly running the ball 39% of the time. I'd like to see a better ratio. The Pats had 1191 plays of which 641 were passes. So they ran the ball about 46% of the time. That's just one team but I'd like to be in the mid forties, too.

Say we have 1150 offensive plays this year which would be pretty good. At 45% that's 517 rushes or 32 rushes a game. I'd like to see Dunbar get 8-10 touches a game which is 28% of the touches. Obviously that's my projection and also his touches will be dictated by game situations and opponents each game. That leaves on average 72% to be divided between say 2.3 RBs since you're just going to have 3 rather than 4 RBs some games due to dings and such. That's roughly 10 snaps for those 2.3. Or another way to look would be Murray gets 70% of those snaps followed by 20% for Tanner and 10% for Randle. Murray would then avg 32 rushes per game times 72% times 70% or 16 rushes per game. So 16 to 20 a game for Murray is not out of the question. Assuming he's the go to back that game.

Splits might look like this on average:

Murray 16
Dunbar 8
Tanner 5
Randle 3

I can just as easily think Tanner will get some of Murray's snaps. In fact I see Murray/Tanner/Randle as RB and Dunbar as RB/Scatback.

Those numbers will fluctuate from game to game obviously but I expect over the year to be reasonably close as long as Murray is RB1 and all stay about the same health.

 

[RoyTheHammer]

We ran 1049 offensive plays last year and 658 were passes and 355 were rushes. Our opponents ran 441 rushing plays BTW. That's roughly running the ball 39% of the time. I'd like to see a better ratio. The Pats had 1191 plays of which 641 were passes. So they ran the ball about 46% of the time. That's just one team but I'd like to be in the mid forties, too.

Say we have 1150 offensive plays this year which would be pretty good. At 45% that's 517 rushes or 32 rushes a game. I'd like to see Dunbar get 8-10 touches a game which is 28% of the touches. Obviously that's my projection and also his touches will be dictated by game situations and opponents each game. That leaves on average 72% to be divided between say 2.3 RBs since you're just going to have 3 rather than 4 RBs some games due to dings and such. That's roughly 10 snaps for those 2.3. Or another way to look would be Murray gets 70% of those snaps followed by 20% for Tanner and 10% for Randle. Murray would then avg 32 rushes per game times 72% times 70% or 16 rushes per game. So 16 to 20 a game for Murray is not out of the question. Assuming he's the go to back that game.

Splits might look like this on average:

Murray 16
Dunbar 8
Tanner 5
Randle 3

I can just as easily think Tanner will get some of Murray's snaps. In fact I see Murray/Tanner/Randle as RB and Dunbar as RB/Scatback.

Those numbers will fluctuate from game to game obviously but I expect over the year to be reasonably close as long as Murray is RB1 and all stay about the same health.

You're thinking all 4 RB's will be active on gamedays? I can't see us using all 4 after the preseason ends.

 

[jobberone]

You're thinking all 4 RB's will be active on gamedays? I can't see us using all 4 after the preseason ends.

For some games maybe esp if they ever use Dunbar for returns but generally probably 3 will suit. Depends on the opponent. Often one will be hurt anyway. I'm not even sure we keep 4 RBs although I'm not certain I could cut one of these guys. What I'd try to do as GM is trade Tanner and find another RB on the PS. My only problem with Dunbar and a lesser extent Randle is their ability to pass block. But I would definitely game plan Dunbar into that scatback role. He's explosive. He might even get more touches than I imagine.

 

[RoyTheHammer]

For some games maybe esp if they ever use Dunbar for returns but generally probably 3 will suit. Depends on the opponent. Often one will be hurt anyway. I'm not even sure we keep 4 RBs although I'm not certain I could cut one of these guys. What I'd try to do as GM is trade Tanner and find another RB on the PS. My only problem with Dunbar and a lesser extent Randle is their ability to pass block. But I would definitely game plan Dunbar into that scatback role. He's explosive. He might even get more touches than I imagine.

I would definitely use Murray and Dunbar as the primary backs on gameday. Maybe keep Randle active for goalline and short yardage runs, although i think Murray can handle those himself. I agree i'd try to get something for Tanner at this point.. not because i don't like him, just because its too crowded to get enough touches for everyone right now.

 

[EPL0c0]

This is an interesting element in my mind.

Can we have Lance Dunbar emulate Darren Sproles' role here in Dallas? And how many touches would he need in order to make him that effective?

If we looked to replicate New Orlean's use of their running backs, they similar to us have 4.

Mark Ingraham
Pierre Thomas
Darren Sproles
Chris Ivory (no longer with the saints)

Mark Ingraham is their main rusher and Pierre Thomas isn't too far behind him. Obviously Ingraham would be DeMarco Murray in this instance, but Thomas could be either Tanner or Randle. Sproles would be Dunbar, and Ivory again would be either Tanner or Randle.

This RBC didn't go to the ground all that many more times than we did. We were 31st in rushing attempts, and the Saints were 29th. We were both a bit better the year before that.

The Saints ran for the same amount of attempts both years. 431 times. Which is about 26 times per game.

Maybe that is the real answer here. That we should expect Murray to carry the rock 20 times per game, especially if we want him to stay healthy. That we should maybe let Murray and Tanner split drives, and let Dunbar be the full time 3rd down running back, and perhaps let Randle be the red zone or goal line running back. He certainly has a nose for the endzone.

I hope Dunbar gets plenty of carries. I also hope that there isn't a strict breakdown (60/40, 70/30, etc). I'd like to see plays where they're both in there, one as a runner, one as a receiver. Breaking predictable scenerios is the big thing IMO. It forces teams to prep for 2 (maybe 3) backs instead of gameplanning their D to stop one. And, hopefully Murray's legs will stay a bit more fresh as the season wears on.

 

[Dhragon]

I would definitely use Murray and Dunbar as the primary backs on gameday. Maybe keep Randle active for goalline and short yardage runs, although i think Murray can handle those himself. I agree i'd try to get something for Tanner at this point.. not because i don't like him, just because its too crowded to get enough touches for everyone right now.

Shouldn't get rid of Tanner unless you got a very, very good deal for him. How confident are you any of our RBs will stay healthy through all 16 games? I'd bet more than 1 of them will get dinged up enough to miss multiple games this season where we will need that 4th RB (Tanner) at some point.

Keep Tanner, we'll undoubtfully need a quality backup later on.

 

[xwalker]

You're thinking all 4 RB's will be active on gamedays? I can't see us using all 4 after the preseason ends.

It would be rare, but they might go with 4 RBs active and only 4 WRs. The base set is 2 TEs and Murray/Dunbar could probably line up wide if there were multiple injuries to WRs.

If Beasley is the 5th WR and the other 4 WRs are all healthy, I don't see Beasley getting enough snaps to justify having him active if he can't play Special Teams.

 

[RoyTheHammer]

Shouldn't get rid of Tanner unless you got a very, very good deal for him. How confident are you any of our RBs will stay healthy through all 16 games? I'd bet more than 1 of them will get dinged up enough to miss multiple games this season where we will need that 4th RB (Tanner) at some point.

Keep Tanner, we'll undoubtfully need a quality backup later on.

What kind of a deal are you thinking would be "very very good" for him?

PS.. LOVE the Calvin and Hobbes sig

 

[RoyTheHammer]

It would be rare, but they might go with 4 RBs active and only 4 WRs. The base set is 2 TEs and Murray/Dunbar could probably line up wide if there were multiple injuries to WRs.

If Beasley is the 5th WR and the other 4 WRs are all healthy, I don't see Beasley getting enough snaps to justify having him active if he can't play Special Teams.

I could see that.. although i think they will go 5 active WR's on gameday because of what Beasley can bring to the table on offense.

Tanner and Randle seem like they both could play enough ST's to justify keeping them active though.

 

[big dog cowboy]

And how many touches would he need in order to make him that effective?

At least 5-6. Even if it's to keep RB legs fresher for the playoffs.

 

[CATCH17]

I took him in fantasy because we're supposedly going to use him like Sproles.

 

[Dhragon]

What kind of a deal are you thinking would be "very very good" for him?

PS.. LOVE the Calvin and Hobbes sig

A trade for a competent ( average ) guard would be worth it IMO but doubt that would happen. A fifth round draft pick also would be worth it. Nothing less though. Doubt any team would do that for Tanner though.

 

[erod]

He'll have a huge role.

Early in games, more of a 3rd down guy. Then, as the game gets later and the legs get wearier, you'll see more of him. He's no fun to chase and harder to catch.

 

[JohnsKey19]

Opposing teams will blitz every time he's in on 3rd downs until he proves he can block or the Cowboys find a way to effectively counter this strategy.

 

[EPL0c0]

Opposing teams will blitz every time he's in on 3rd downs until he proves he can block or the Cowboys find a way to effectively counter this strategy.

Predictability has been one of this offense's problems in the past. This is one of the things I do hope they change, like using the RB as a pass catcher, not necessarily just as a screen pass guy. or Direct snap or something just...something different. I'm hopeful.

 

[Jwoo52]

You're thinking all 4 RB's will be active on gamedays? I can't see us using all 4 after the preseason ends.

I could see it, although the big issue is which 2 backs do you keep after Murray? To me it is a tossup.

 

[Bullflop]

Dunbar's activity will probably be governed by the state of his health when he returns to action. If he's 100%, he'll probably be used often and even more. He'll be a terrific complement to Murray if he's healthy upon his return.

 

[KJJ]

Dunbar has looked impressive I could see him having a pretty big role this season. He can be very dangerous with his speed and quickness out in space.