CFZ How much can we realistically expect of NFL rookies?

[Diehardblues]

Depends on their talent level and opportunity. We saw what a Parsons contributed last year or like Dak and Zeke did in 2016.

 

[Hoofbite]

Depends on where they are drafted. If you draft a guy in the top half of round 1 he better be starting unless he's a QB that's designated to ride the bench for a season. Also positional. If you draft a kicker in almost any round, he better be starting because there are no redshirt years for kickers. Well, minus David Buehler (or whatever his name was) who had to be one of the worst ideological picks of all time.

 

[McKDaddy]

Getting a guy like that, late in the draft, at such an important position is like gold for an NFL team. Gold.

your entire post was well stated (as usual). hitting on guys like this make it that much more frustrating that the Cowboys have thrown so many premium picks away on reclamation projects or just plain forced picks. make solid picks with your high picks and your team will remain solid. hit on some later picks to go along with them and you become a really good team.

 

[Bobhaze]

I'd venture to say that our defense is most likely to set the tone for this team in 2022. The offense will struggle early in the season, as young players will be challenged to live up to their potential until at least mid-season or so. It'll be interesting to see if Dak is able to adjust in a timely fashion to the younger receivers that he'll be charged to find success with. Hopefully, we'll eventually see things shake out for the better. Patience will surely be required.

I emphasized your last sentence because with almost all rookies, (unless they’re Micah Parsons) it takes a little time for them to adjust to the NFL game.

 

[charron]

I trust these offensive coaches less than the rookies.

 

[MarcusRock]

If they aren't All-Pros out the gate like Parsons, they're busts!

 

[McKDaddy]

Rookies are a lot like mirages. Generally, not exactly what you thought you saw. If they get off to a fast start or string together a stretch of good play, we "perceive" them to be more productive than they really are. So, better to temper our expectations. There are exceptions to the rule though.

 

[Creeper]

I do agree that the expectations for the impact rookies will make is usually too high. In reality very few rookies actually make a big impact on their teams. Some do, but it is rare. I also depends on the position they play. RBs can have a greater impact that DTs, for example. I will say this though, with the college game changing to more of a pro-style rookies today do get on the field much sooner than rookies in the past.

 

[Doomsday101]

I do agree that the expectations for the impact rookies will make is usually too high. In reality very few rookies actually make a big impact on their teams. Some do, but it is rare. I also depends on the position they play. RBs can have a greater impact that DTs, for example. I will say this though, with the college game changing to more of a pro-style rookies today do get on the field much sooner than rookies in the past.

I would say it is reverse more pro teams are playing college style football. In large part because QB are not able to sit and learn 2 to 3 years after getting drafted

 

[blueblood70]

I agree on those guys, but I never thought they were killing it every day like Bland. I hoped for those guys and I still do for Wright. In fact, Wright was the only one who I thought really even had more than about 1 good day.

But Wright never stacked days together like Bland, who is doing it every time he practices… and has been going all the way back to Rookie mini camp.

I see Bland as an entirely different level than Wright last year… or this year for that matter.

I really do see him as the 4th best corner this early.

Here’s to hoping that I’m right.

he did last year lie all those did..sorry you all oare overreacting to a few practices and one PS game.. we can all hope but...

 

[xwalker]

It’s been interesting to read so many posts here on our forum this summer that discuss how much our 2022 rookie class will contribute to this year’s team. Some predict several will not only start but will also be immediate big help. Other fans are not so sure.

So that led me to wonder: what can be realistically expected from an NFL rookie in their first season of NFL football?

Typically each year, approximately 260-270 college players are drafted into the NFL. According to NFL stats of the last 10 years, here’s how much rookies contribute to their team:

• Approximately 15-20% of rookies will be starters during the regular season.
• Of those players who start their rookie season, over 90% are 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounders.
• In 2021, 13 NFL teams did not start a single rookie in the first game of the season. That always changes as the season progresses. That does mean about 2/3 of the league will start a rookie immediately.
• Approximately 30-35% of rookies from Day 3 of the draft- that’s rounds 4-7- don’t even make their team’s final 53 man roster, although many make the practice squad.
• Rookie WRs often struggle adjusting to the NFL game. Route running is harder because coverages are more varied and sophisticated than in college. Guys that could depend solely on their athletic skills to catch passes find that’s not enough at this level. Even some of the greats struggled their rookie season.
• Rookie OL have to adjust to pro blocking and pass protection schemes and must learn how to be in close communication sync with their fellow OL or the QB can get blindsided.
• Over 75% of NFL rookies make their first contributions through STs rather than offense or defense.
• Of the 260 players drafted, usually no more than 3-5 make the pro bowl as a rookie. Last year, Micah Parsons was one of six rookies to make the pro bowl. That was a larger number than usual.

So what are some realistic expectations for our rookies?

• I think it’s pretty safe to say Tyler Smith will start- although not yet a lock- at LG. I think he will have lots of growing pains along with some excellent plays and development.
• Early in the season I also expect Jalen Tolbert to either start or see lots of action because of Michael Gallup and James Washington’s absences. Rookie UFA Dennis Houston has been a camp star and I expect him to play some but not a ton.
  
• Sam Williams will probably play about 20-25 snaps a game on defense this year. He will hopefully be able to provide some pressure on occasion.

From what I’ve seen so far, I’m fairly pleased with our rookie class. It’s still too early to call it a success or failure. But it is clear we don’t have a Micah Parsons type talent in this year’s draft.

Bottom line- most rookies take time to meet their potential. Very few are “plug and play”. I will be pleasantly surprised if we have more 2-3 have much of an immediate big impact. That’s pretty much what history shows. Can’t wait to see what happens!

Micah Parsons...

 

[Bobhaze]

Micah Parsons...

For sure…but surely we can agree he’s a major outlier. A generational talent you don’t acquire every year.

We don’t have a Parsons-like talent among these rookies. There’s definitely talent there among this year’s rookie class- just not Parsons level talent.

 

[Creeper]

I would say it is reverse more pro teams are playing college style football. In large part because QB are not able to sit and learn 2 to 3 years after getting drafted

Valid point. But I do think it is a combination of both. College football used to be running the football 80 times on offense. Now, QBs are coming out of college much more prepared for pro-style passing games. At the same time, NFL coaches are more likely to adapt their offenses to the skillsets of their players and in doing so will adopt some college style plays and schemes. However you look at it, the convergence makes college players more ready for the pro game.

But to the point of the thread, it still takes college players some time to catch up to pro-football where everyone is bigger, stronger, faster, and just better than the competition they saw in college.

 

[Doomsday101]

Valid point. But I do think it is a combination of both. College football used to be running the football 80 times on offense. Now, QBs are coming out of college much more prepared for pro-style passing games. At the same time, NFL coaches are more likely to adapt their offenses to the skillsets of their players and in doing so will adopt some college style plays and schemes. However you look at it, the convergence makes college players more ready for the pro game.

But to the point of the thread, it still takes college players some time to catch up to pro-football where everyone is bigger, stronger, faster, and just better than the competition they saw in college.

I agree, they day of the wishbone are gone, college is now a heavy passing game. Where I tend to disagree is I think now you have pro teams adjusting to the college ranks in large part because of FA. NFL has to get production from the QB and it is much easier to adjust the plays they run as opposed to adjusting the player to the NFL.

I do agree that it still takes time to get these kids up to speed at this level I just think the learning curve is much less than the NFL of the past.

 

[75boyz]

Depends on both the overall team circumstance and the individual's God given talent.

In the case of Dak and Zeke they both came into the absolute best scenario they could have regarding team circumstance and the dominant oline they would both be playing behind. One could say they both peaked their rookie year. I'm one that agrees with this. It was rare how in their rookie year both players were legit OROY candidates and one winning it. Their combined impact and success was based on the dominant offensive line that helped the team win 13 games their rookie year.

Then you have the type of rookies whose individual play just jumps off the screen and possibly even reveals a generational type talent. You can tell you're witnessing something special/elite/possible HOF caliber performance as you watch them play.

This occurred with both Zach and Micah.

All others category covers mostly all the rest of the transitional, learning curve type rooks whose impact could improve over time to HOF status(or bust) but just did not arrive on the scene appearing to be either extreme.

That's my summary of rookie expectations, specifically as applied to recent Cowboys.

jmo

 

[xwalker]

For sure…but surely we can agree he’s a major outlier. A generational talent you don’t acquire every year.

We don’t have a Parsons-like talent among these rookies. There’s definitely talent there among this year’s rookie class- just not Parsons level talent.

Generational Talent
Tyler Smith is physically the closest player to Larry Allen that I've seen. He drove a DT 2 yards off the line on a 1 arm help block before kicking out to block some unfortunate LB.

Rare Traits
Sam Williams combo of power/speed might go beyond generational. I can't remember a player coming out of college with 4.4 speed that could Bullrush a 320 pound OT straight back to the QB. It does not guarantee that he'll be a great player but the physical ability is rare.

Ready Now
Ferguson looks like a ready now type of rookie. I don't know his exact upside but he appears ready to become the 2nd TE now.

CB Bland might have been the player of the game if they had that for the preseason. He won't play much unless there is an injury but he appears ready to contribute.

 

[Doomsday101]

Generational Talent
Tyler Smith is physically the closest player to Larry Allen that I've seen. He drove a DT 2 yards off the line on a 1 arm help block before kicking out to block some unfortunate LB.

Rare Traits
Sam Williams combo of power/speed might go beyond generational. I can't remember a player coming out of college with 4.4 speed that could Bullrush a 320 pound OT straight back to the QB. It does not guarantee that he'll be a great player but the physical ability is rare.

Ready Now
Ferguson looks like a ready now type of rookie. I don't know his exact upside but he appears ready to become the 2nd TE now.

CB Bland might have been the player of the game if they had that for the preseason. He won't play much unless there is an injury but he appears ready to contribute.

Bland will get a chance with Lewis nursing a hamstring.

 

[Bobhaze]

Generational Talent
Tyler Smith is physically the closest player to Larry Allen that I've seen. He drove a DT 2 yards off the line on a 1 arm help block before kicking out to block some unfortunate LB.

Rare Traits
Sam Williams combo of power/speed might go beyond generational. I can't remember a player coming out of college with 4.4 speed that could Bullrush a 320 pound OT straight back to the QB. It does not guarantee that he'll be a great player but the physical ability is rare.

Ready Now
Ferguson looks like a ready now type of rookie. I don't know his exact upside but he appears ready to become the 2nd TE now.

CB Bland might have been the player of the game if they had that for the preseason. He won't play much unless there is an injury but he appears ready to contribute.

I’m excited about those guys too. But none of them will have the type of impact Micah Parsons had last year. He was in the top 1% of NFL rookies last year. I don’t see any of this year’s rookies having that kind of impact.

Put it this way- do you expect any Cowboys rookie this year making the pro bowl as Parsons did? There were only 6 rookies last year among the 260 players drafted to make the pro bowl. And that was more rookies than any recent year.

All I’m saying is it is highly unlikely our rookies this year will be what they will in a year or two.

 

[AsthmaField]

he did last year lie all those did..sorry you all oare overreacting to a few practices and one PS game.. we can all hope but...

We’ll see. I don’t think it is an overreaction and I really hope it isn’t.

However, if it is, I’ll have no problem saying so. But I hope I don’t have to. I hope he is what I feel he is.

I can tell you for sure that I, personally, never felt this way about Wright and the others. That doesn’t mean I’m right about Bland, I know.

It’ll be fun watching him this year.

 

[75boyz]

Depends on both the overall team circumstance and the individual's God given talent.

In the case of Dak and Zeke they both came into the absolute best scenario they could have regarding team circumstance and the dominant oline they would both be playing behind. One could say they both peaked their rookie year. I'm one that agrees with this. It was rare how in their rookie year both players were legit OROY candidates and one winning it. Their combined impact and success was based on the dominant offensive line that helped the team win 13 games their rookie year.

Then you have the type of rookies whose individual play just jumps off the screen and possibly even reveals a generational type talent. You can tell you're witnessing something special/elite/possible HOF caliber performance as you watch them play.

This occurred with both Zach and Micah.

All others category covers mostly all the rest of the transitional, learning curve type rooks whose impact could improve over time to HOF status(or bust) but just did not arrive on the scene appearing to be either extreme.

That's my summary of rookie expectations, specifically as applied to recent Cowboys.

jmo

PS. Out of this year's crop, Tyler Smith's strength and power could prove potentially special but his rawness definitely keeps him from the Zach or Micah category.

All the rest of this year's rooks are the standard learning curve transition types who may/may not become future stars or busts.