CFZ How much can we realistically expect of NFL rookies?

[Risen Star]

The Micah Parsons Experience has set up this year's rookie class to pale in comparison.

Particularly the 1st round pick, who I think is having a very good summer in his own right, but there's just no comparing the impact.

The team is taking a step back this year and there's nothing this rookie class can do about it.

 

[xwalker]

I’m excited about those guys too. But none of them will have the type of impact Micah Parsons had last year. He was in the top 1% of NFL rookies last year. I don’t see any of this year’s rookies having that kind of impact.

Put it this way- do you expect any Cowboys rookie this year making the pro bowl as Parsons did? There were only 6 rookies last year among the 260 players drafted to make the pro bowl. And that was more rookies than any recent year.

All I’m saying is it is highly unlikely our rookies this year will be what they will in a year or two.

Tyler Smith can have a Travis Frederick type rookie season.

 

[john van brocklin]

It’s been interesting to read so many posts here on our forum this summer that discuss how much our 2022 rookie class will contribute to this year’s team. Some predict several will not only start but will also be immediate big help. Other fans are not so sure.

So that led me to wonder: what can be realistically expected from an NFL rookie in their first season of NFL football?

Typically each year, approximately 260-270 college players are drafted into the NFL. According to NFL stats of the last 10 years, here’s how much rookies contribute to their team:

• Approximately 15-20% of rookies will be starters during the regular season.
• Of those players who start their rookie season, over 90% are 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounders.
• In 2021, 13 NFL teams did not start a single rookie in the first game of the season. That always changes as the season progresses. That does mean about 2/3 of the league will start a rookie immediately.
• Approximately 30-35% of rookies from Day 3 of the draft- that’s rounds 4-7- don’t even make their team’s final 53 man roster, although many make the practice squad.
• Rookie WRs often struggle adjusting to the NFL game. Route running is harder because coverages are more varied and sophisticated than in college. Guys that could depend solely on their athletic skills to catch passes find that’s not enough at this level. Even some of the greats struggled their rookie season.
• Rookie OL have to adjust to pro blocking and pass protection schemes and must learn how to be in close communication sync with their fellow OL or the QB can get blindsided.
• Over 75% of NFL rookies make their first contributions through STs rather than offense or defense.
• Of the 260 players drafted, usually no more than 3-5 make the pro bowl as a rookie. Last year, Micah Parsons was one of six rookies to make the pro bowl. That was a larger number than usual.

So what are some realistic expectations for our rookies?

• I think it’s pretty safe to say Tyler Smith will start- although not yet a lock- at LG. I think he will have lots of growing pains along with some excellent plays and development.
• Early in the season I also expect Jalen Tolbert to either start or see lots of action because of Michael Gallup and James Washington’s absences. Rookie UFA Dennis Houston has been a camp star and I expect him to play some but not a ton.
  
• Sam Williams will probably play about 20-25 snaps a game on defense this year. He will hopefully be able to provide some pressure on occasion.

From what I’ve seen so far, I’m fairly pleased with our rookie class. It’s still too early to call it a success or failure. But it is clear we don’t have a Micah Parsons type talent in this year’s draft.

Bottom line- most rookies take time to meet their potential. Very few are “plug and play”. I will be pleasantly surprised if we have more 2-3 have much of an immediate big impact. That’s pretty much what history shows. Can’t wait to see what happens!

Nice post.
My concern with Tyler is they want him to learn 2 positions.
With all the adjustments , I really think they should let him focus on one position.

 

[Bobhaze]

Tyler Smith can have a Travis Frederick type rookie season.

He certainly could. We will see.

 

[AsthmaField]

Nice post.
My concern with Tyler is they want him to learn 2 positions.
With all the adjustments , I really think they should let him focus on one position.

Since camp started, Smith has 100% played left guard.

 

[xwalker]

Since camp started, Smith has 100% played left guard.

@john van brocklin

Yes, Tyler has only practiced/played LG since camp started.

Note: McGovern played RG in the preseason game.

 

[conner01]

All rookies are nit equal
All positions are not equal
A top 10 pick is not equal to the 30th pick
Not all rookies get a real shot their rookie year
I think we over estimate rookies but what is really important is not really the stats but does the player earn reps and improve as he plays more

 

[conner01]

Since camp started, Smith has 100% played left guard.

To me that’s the best thing
Let him learn the new position first

 

[AsthmaField]

To me that’s the best thing
Let him learn the new position first

Absolutely.

 

[CouchCoach]

Tyler Smith can have a Travis Frederick type rookie season.

Can but not likely as Yosemite came in playing C in the Big 10 and was on a run first team at WIS. He was used to facing talent that Smith struggled against with the better teams. It should take more time for Smith.

 

[KJJ]

You can expect a lot more from rookies these days because of minicamps/OTAs and preseason is pretty much dedicated to rookies and young players. Veterans are protected and you’re trying to find out what you have in rookies. Plus you want to get the most out of them while they’re under their rookie contracts. Rookies get thrown into the fire a lot earlier than they used to.

 

[CouchCoach]

You can expect a lot more from rookies these days because of minicamps/OTAs and preseason is pretty much dedicated to rookies and young players. Veterans are protected and you’re trying to find out what you have in rookies. Plus you want to get the most out of them while they’re under their rookie contracts. Rookies get thrown into the fire a lot earlier than they used to.

Yes they do. Because coaches get fired more quickly than they used to, 6-9 every year.

Some of these rookies are playing for lame duck HC's that just don't know it yet.

 

[KJJ]

Yes they do. Because coaches get fired more quickly than they used to, 6-9 every year.

Some of these rookies are playing for lame duck HC's that just don't know it yet.

It has more to do with the kind of money players are demanding than it does the head coaches. With free agency and the kind of money that’s being passed out you have to find out what these rookies can do under their rookie deals. You want to get the most out of them while they’re cheap. Some are looking for new contracts after their third year. Before free agency you didn’t have to worry about losing players. You could be a lot more patient. You have to make a lot quicker decisions on players these days.

 

[blueblood70]

We’ll see. I don’t think it is an overreaction and I really hope it isn’t.

However, if it is, I’ll have no problem saying so. But I hope I don’t have to. I hope he is what I feel he is.

I can tell you for sure that I, personally, never felt this way about Wright and the others. That doesn’t mean I’m right about Bland, I know.

It’ll be fun watching him this year.

hey and i hope you are right )O

 

[Bobhaze]

Can but not likely as Yosemite came in playing C in the Big 10 and was on a run first team at WIS. He was used to facing talent that Smith struggled against with the better teams. It should take more time for Smith.

This time of year is when most of us fans have the thickest fan glasses on. It makes us see things that may not really be there yet. Hope is a good thing but it’s usually based as much on what we want to be true than actually is true.

I like some of the rookies this year and have some hope for sure. They have tons of potential. But as former UT head coach Darrell Royal used to say- “Potential just means they ain’t done it yet.”

 

[john van brocklin]

Since camp started, Smith has 100% played left guard.

Great news
I kept hearing how they wanted position flex with him at left tackle.
Are you at training camp to know this btw?

 

[AsthmaField]

Great news
I kept hearing how they wanted position flex with him at left tackle.
Are you at training camp to know this btw?

It was reported that McCarthy said Smith would stay at LG all through camp. He said that he probably shouldn’t have moved him around in OTA’s. There was at least one thread here talking about it.

But no, I’m not at camp.

 

[john van brocklin]

It was reported that McCarthy said Smith would stay at LG all through camp. He said that he probably shouldn’t have moved him around in OTA’s. There was at least one thread here talking about it.

But no, I’m not at camp.

Thanks, there is so much info floating around on this board it's hard to keep it straight and know what's accurate.
But I trust you as one of the more reliable sources

 

[beware_d-ware]

I am not expecting much from this rookie class. Maybe in 1 or 2 years we will see dividends.

• Smith will play every snap he is healthy at guard. No question he will be a bad hombre in run blocking, but I am not expecting big things in pass pro.

• Sam Williams will probably play 200 to 300 snaps. I am not expecting more than replacement level speed rushing, a la Benson Mayowa. DEs usually take at least a year to develop.

• Jalen Tolbert, well I felt more confident about him before last week's game. I thought he looked pro ready coming out of school, but at this point he might fall behind Noah Brown for snaps. We'll see how the rest of the preseason goes.

• Jake Ferguson will get 100-ish snaps in the James Hanna role.

• John Ridgeway will get 100-ish snaps in the Nick Hayden role.

Long term, over the duration of a rookie contract, Smith and Williams are both coin flips. They could either dominate or bust out. But almost every one picked after them, though, has a high chance of at least sticking in the league. We found a of fundamentally-solid gamers with at least baseline athleticism.

Tolbert and Ferguson fit that mold. Clark is a medical coin flip but is a stud if healthy. Ridgeway is a gamer who only needs to be as good as Carlos Watkins to stick. Bland might be a keeper.

To me, this draft kind of feels like 2017. We were doing a lot of projection on Taco's 1 big year, but Chido, Lewis, and Woods were all just really sound football players with a high floor. Five years later, Taco is gone, but our 3 DBs are all still starting in the league.

 

[RonWashington]

I felt that after the draft the Cowboys did very well for themselves and certain players were shown the door that needed it . Cedric Wilson is really the only regret . Along that front I am excited that Tolbert will be given every chance to succeed along with some WR’s not drafted who are having good camps.

Certainly Ferguson will show as a capable complement to Schultz and an upgrade at depth .

Tyler Smith brings much needed aggressive play to the OL and as it turns out I think Will McClay will be vindicated by what many saw as a “ surprise “ pick round one .

On D Sam Williams will slow a lot as a very capable rotation edge to fit in with Lawrence and Armstrong giving Dallas constant fresh legs to get after the QB and DaRon Bland so far looks like a steal as a 5th round pick . He is forcing his way into the picture ad a nickel and possibly even more as this camp unfolds.