Quite honestly, I think it depends more on Dan Quinn than anything. If we have an early exit AND DQ decides he wants to be a HC again, I think Jerry hits the eject button on MM to install DQ.
The 'right coach for Jerry Jones' discussion has made the rounds of CowboysZone about as long and often as the OP's topic. In my opinion, who Jones hires carries the underlying stipulation of the candidate capitulating to Jones' incessant need to micromanage coaches' responsibilities.
Dan Quinn will be high on his hiring list if he has demonstrated that willingness to bend that far for him. It is a key component for Jones feeling he has reached the right working chemistry with a candidate.
This sub-topic takes me back to Jones first 'real' (lol) head coach interview process after Barry Switzer resigned. George Seifert's name was batted around but Seifert never heard from Jones. Then there was Terry Donahue. Jones could not get the salary right (he was especially stingy back in the day) and that so-called negotiation fell apart. Sherman Lewis was a hot prospect at the time and Jones actually interviewed him several times but nothing serious came out of it.
In the end, after an arduous search
Jones settled on Chan Gailey and the rest was history. Well, for two years at least.
Quinn's coaching strength is the ability to build strong relationships between players. His Atlanta locker room is tight. He gained a very strong bond with his players because of it. Exactly how that would factor in with Jones decision is another unanswered question. Jones loves his fatherly bond with players too. It will be a plus if the two mesh in this aspect also.
Of course, Quinn has several years of critiquing how Jones interacts with his head coach and staff. Whether he is willing to stay or is willing to go elsewhere with this in mind is another factor. He will be a hot hiring candidate, that is for sure. Wonder if Pete Carroll is thinking of retiring soon, lol?