I agree with OP.
The teams have pretty much played to their level so far.
Last week, there really weren't many that gave the Lions, Dolphins or Raiders much of a chance, in the Raiders case because of their QB going down. The Giants and Packers were considered a toss up for the most part, but both teams pretty much played how we expected. The Giants D fell apart at the end.
This week, the Falcons pretty much did what they have most all of the year. And Seattle quite simply is not the team they have been. Their OL was weak and the defense just wasn't the same without Thomas. So far the Pats and Texans are more of the same. Mediocre Texan offense against average Pats D. Good Pats offense and against good Texans D. Pats up 11 and probably will add to their lead.
If the teams perform like they have all year tomorrow, I think Dallas will be too much for the Packers. I don't think their defense can stop our offense consistently without major mistakes. I do think our defense can make some stops against their offense. THe only way we lose is if we give them the game. Pitt and KC are probably the most evenly matched. That one is a tossup in my mind.