I say tag Dak and get our future QB in the draft

[Aviano90]

He is the qb of the cowboys right? This is a cowboys forum right? Why so surprised? There will be many, many more.

It would be nice if there were a pinned “official Dak contract thread” to discuss this situation. It would clean the board up and we wouldn’t have multiple threads discussing the same issue.

 

[csirl]

Considering the cost to move up, I'm a no to that. High bust rate for 1st round QB's. You start giving up 1st round picks to get a QB you seriously gamble on your teams future. Last 10 years:

Murray
Jones
Haskins
Mayfield
Darnold
Allen
Trubisky
Mahomes
Watson
Goff
Wentz
Lynch
Winston
Mariota
Bortles
Manziel
Manuel
Luck
Griffin III
Tannehill
Weeden
Newton
Locker
Gabbert
Ponder
Bradford
Tebow

This list says that the hit rate is very high. The last 11 QBs drafted in the first round are starters. 100%.

Interesting that the hit rate went from a high percentage of busts to 100% starters after Paxton Lynch was drafted. I think that scouts down graded the importance of "athletic skills/build" versus pure QB skills after that draft. Lynch was the last straw for a failed assessment formula.

 

[Pola_pe_a]

Considering the cost to move up, I'm a no to that. High bust rate for 1st round QB's. You start giving up 1st round picks to get a QB you seriously gamble on your teams future. Last 10 years:

Murray
Jones
Haskins
Mayfield
Darnold
Allen
Trubisky-
Mahomes
Watson

Goff
Wentz
Lynch- bust
Winston- I’m calling him a bust
Mariota- bust
Bortles- bust
Manziel- bust
Manuel- bust
Luck
Griffin III- bust
Tannehill
Weeden- bust
Newton
Locker- bust
Gabbert- bust
Ponder- bust
Bradford- could call him a bust
Tebow- bust

This is a perfect illustration of the crap shoot drafting a QB is. I’m ignoring the first few because they really need another year to judge. But starting with the ‘16 draft class there were 18 1st rd QBs taken. 11 of the 18 are straights busts. 2 more I would call a bust (Bradford / Winston), so 13/18 didn’t live up to expectations. Tannehill is OK, Newtown was good but breaking down and Luck is out of the league. Not a great success rate.

Saying get another QB is easy, getting the right QB is hard. The Cowboys scored with Dak, letting him walk to take another shot at drafting a QB seems like an unwise risk.

 

[HungryLion]

I’m not against the idea. I do think saying that “if they do their homework they WILL be in better shape in two years”

every team does their homework every year, and QB busts get drafted high all the time.

 

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

Huh

LLLOOOLLL

 

[Risen Star]

Don't waste your time talking about this. Prescott will remain your QB for many more years because this front office sucks.

 

[HungryLion]

This list says that the hit rate is very high. The last 11 QBs drafted in the first round are starters. 100%.

Interesting that the hit rate went from a high percentage of busts to 100% starters after Paxton Lynch was drafted. I think that scouts down graded the importance of "athletic skills/build" versus pure QB skills after that draft. Lynch was the last straw for a failed assessment formula.

Starting for a year or two is a piss poor way to rate a “hit”. That’s why the % is so high.

Unless you think Rosen has been a hit so far. Or a #3 pick for Trubisky has been good so far.

Then add in that the jury is still out on Murray, Haskins, Jones, Darnold, Mayfield and Allen, and how good they will be relative to how high a pick their teams spent on them.

We don’t know if any of those QB’s are hits yet. Starting and playing poorly or only being an average QB as a top 10 pick isn’t a “hit”.


Also nice of you to stop at Lynch and not mention the treasure trove of failures that happened in the few years preceding him being picked.

You know the QB’s who have been around for a while and can actually be evaluated properly, as opposed to the QB’s who have been in the league for only a couple years, and just declaring them a “hit” because they start, without knowing if they actually will become a good starting QB in the league.

 

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

Just because Mahomes is a freak athlete doesn't mean it would be easy to replace Dak in the draft with just any QB. You might also consider spending some draft capital on the defensive side of the ball.

After Mitch T. made us look foolish that should be a no brainer.

 

[HungryLion]

Considering the cost to move up, I'm a no to that. High bust rate for 1st round QB's. You start giving up 1st round picks to get a QB you seriously gamble on your teams future. Last 10 years:

Murray
Jones
Haskins
Mayfield
Darnold
Allen
Trubisky
Mahomes
Watson
Goff
Wentz
Lynch
Winston
Mariota
Bortles
Manziel
Manuel
Luck
Griffin III
Tannehill
Weeden
Newton
Locker
Gabbert
Ponder
Bradford
Tebow

It amazes me that some people can look at this list. And then believe it would be easy to draft a QB better than Dak and not be willing to admit that the odds are 50% at best.

 

[gjkoeppen]

I say tag Dak and look for his replacement in the draft. If any of the QB's drop then trade up. Two years from now (if they do their homework on the QB they draft), they will be in much better shape for years to come. Putting all your eggs in one basket (with DAK) can greatly harm the future of this team.

I believe future Super Bowl winners are going to be teams with QB's on their rookie contract. You can not build a winning team when you're putting the bulk of your salary cap into one person.

You act like every team can find a Mahomes type QB in every draft. Then you say if need be trade up. Other than QB and WR the biggest need on the Cowboys is defense. You say to be able to build but using multiple draft picks on QB therefore no starting help on defense the BIG need. Please let the professionals take care of the roster.
.

 

[MarcusRock]

It amazes me that some people can look at this list. And then believe it would be easy to draft a QB better than Dak and not be willing to admit that the odds are 50% at best.

Not only that but they think this FO is adept at finding a guy. Just schooled someone else who forgot that we only got Dak after trying to trade up to get Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook; two guys who don't have an NFL (or XFL) job at the moment. And we're supposed to have faith this is going to work out well if they actually get their target guy? Good luck with that.

 

[csirl]

Starting for a year or two is a piss poor way to rate a “hit”. That’s why the % is so high.

Unless you think Rosen has been a hit so far. Or a #3 pick for Trubisky has been good so far.

Then add in that the jury is still out on Murray, Haskins, Jones, Darnold, Mayfield and Allen, and how good they will be relative to how high a pick their teams spent on them.

We don’t know if any of those QB’s are hits yet. Starting and playing poorly or only being an average QB as a top 10 pick isn’t a “hit”.


Also nice of you to stop at Lynch and not mention the treasure trove of failures that happened in the few years preceding him being picked.

You know the QB’s who have been around for a while and can actually be evaluated properly, as opposed to the QB’s who have been in the league for only a couple years, and just declaring them a “hit” because they start, without knowing if they actually will become a good starting QB in the league.

You're forgetting something really important. Yes, some of the QBs on the list are meh average NFL starters, but they cost only a fraction of what Dak costs.

So, based on the recent past, the worst case scenario is a starter similar to Dak, but at a quarter of the price. The best case scenario is Mahomes.

 

[Carnes]

Since we have so many here that know how to draft and sign free agent qb's, why are none of y'all coaching or running a NFL team. Smdh stop the insanity.

 

[Silly]

It amazes me that some people can look at this list. And then believe it would be easy to draft a QB better than Dak and not be willing to admit that the odds are 50% at best.

I am not sold on Dak. However, I just wanted to add that I think a person's true character shines through at times of adversity. We have all seen Dallas struggle and Dak continued to be a team leader. He could have quit on the team, but he did not. That means a lot.

 

[HungryLion]

You're forgetting something really important. Yes, some of the QBs on the list are meh average NFL starters, but they cost only a fraction of what Dak costs.

So, based on the recent past, the worst case scenario is a starter similar to Dak, but at a quarter of the price. The best case scenario is Mahomes.

no. A QB similar to Dak is not the worst case scenario. A QB much worse than Dak is the worst case scenario. That’s what you apparently don’t understand even though it’s clear as day and QB’s significantly worse than Dak get drafted in the first round all the time.

you also forget to mention that most of this QB’s are selected higher than 17. Most much higher. Which means giving up picks to get one. But you fail to mention that either. I wonder why.

 

[csirl]

no. A QB similar to Dak is not the worst case scenario. A QB much worse than Dak is the worst case scenario. That’s what you apparently don’t understand even though it’s clear as day and QB’s significantly worse than Dak get drafted in the first round all the time.

you also forget to mention that most of this QB’s are selected higher than 17. Most much higher. Which means giving up picks to get one. But you fail to mention that either. I wonder why.

But, post Lynch, there arent any significantly worse than Dak QBs?

Theoretically any one of us could be killed in a freak accident each time we leave our houses, but the fear of e.g. being hit by lightning, doesnt stop us going about our daily lives.

 

[PhillyCowboysFan]

He is the qb of the cowboys right? This is a cowboys forum right? Why so surprised? There will be many, many more.

Who said I was surprised let alone “so surprised”. The point is that the OP hasn’t brought anything new to the table that hasn’t been discussed ad nauseam so why start a whole new thread, just add your opinion to one of the other hundreds of threads.

 

[Philmonroe]

Just because Mahomes is a freak athlete doesn't mean it would be easy to replace Dak in the draft with just any QB. You might also consider spending some draft capital on the defensive side of the ball.

Dak isn’t that good so any ole average qb on this team would do. Now you can’t draft an outright bum but an ok qb will be just as good as Dak in a year or two.

 

[HungryLion]

But, post Lynch, there arent any significantly worse than Dak QBs?

Theoretically any one of us could be killed in a freak accident each time we leave our houses, but the fear of e.g. being hit by lightning, doesnt stop us going about our daily lives.

No. This tells me you aren’t watching those QB’s.

Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Trubisky, Darnold. None of them are playing as well as Dak is right now.

of course they are also still developing. So we don’t know what level of play they will ultimately reach.

but saying that none of the QB’s since Lynch are worse than Dak is either 1. Just a lie or 2. Indicative that you don’t know anything about the other Qb’s
Level of play thus far.


And if you want to use the tired and idiotic “fear” line. Stating that people not wanting to draft a QB due to fear. That argument easily gets turned around. There are others arguing that the cowboys shouldn’t pay Dak out of fear that the cap ramifications will prevent the team from reaching a super bowl.

truth is, either strategy has its risks. So pulling out the “fear” line is stupid.

 

[csirl]

No. This tells me you aren’t watching those QB’s.

Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Trubisky, Darnold. None of them are playing as well as Dak is right now.

of course they are also still developing. So we don’t know what level of play they will ultimately reach.

but saying that none of the QB’s since Lynch are worse than Dak is either 1. Just a lie or 2. Indicative that you don’t know anything about the other Qb’s
Level of play thus far.


And if you want to use the tired and idiotic “fear” line. Stating that people not wanting to draft a QB due to fear. That argument easily gets turned around. There are others arguing that the cowboys shouldn’t pay Dak out of fear that the cap ramifications will prevent the team from reaching a super bowl.

truth is, either strategy has its risks. So pulling out the “fear” line is stupid.

There's no fear of cap ramifications - the fear is a lot more basic i.e. that Dak is not good enough to take this team forward right now.

The reality is that it is more likely that a 1st rounder will become elite than a 27 year old 4 year starter with very obvious flaws. The lower salary for the rookie is an added bonus.

The other thing people seem to forget is that there is a draft every year. The 2020 draft will not be our last 1st round pick. If we swing and miss, there's another pick next year, and the year after etc.