I don't like where Miami stands this year. When they went on that win streak at the end of the year, 4 of the 6 opponents were the Jets, Bills, Raiders, and Titans who went a combined 18-46. They then beat the Chargers, which was impressive. But every team usually gets upset once during the season and the Chargers still only managed a 9-7 record. They did beat the Pats, but that was the last game of the season and the Pats were not going to improve their position in the playoffs whether they won or not.
But the bigger problem I see with Miami is their defense is very old. In fact, it's the 4th oldest in the NFL. A few years ago there was a statistical study on injuries in the NFL and the main conclusion is that defensive players are twice as likely to get injured as offensive players. That's a big reason why most teams are much younger on defense than they are on offense.
Plus, while a team like the Browns are a bit older on defense, part of that is due to Ted Washington's age and he's a guy that will be a starter in name only. The Fins have guys like Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor, Keith Traylor, Kevin Carter, and Vonnie Holliday that are legit starters and they have almost no depth behind them.
Then considering that they have a new O-Coordinator and there's a good chance that Culpepper may not be ready or may be rusty by the first week of the season, I don't see them overtaking the Patriots just yet.
Ricb...........