I want to see fewer first-half kneel downs

[Reverend Conehead]

I probably won't get my way. However, it drove me nuts when we would get the ball behind toward the end of the half with a small amount amount of time on the clock and then kneel down. Drove me nuts. It feels to me like giving up. I understand the reasoning behind it. You don't want to get shell shocked by a sudden screw-up that the other team scores on. I get that. But all situations aren't the same. If you get the ball with 5 seconds left in the half on your own 8 yard line and no timeouts, then I can see kneeling down, especially if we're ahead or tied. But I seem to remember better scenarios. If you get the ball on the 20 with 30 seconds left and two or three timeouts, you've got a decent chance to score at least a field goal. Yes, there's risk of something bad going down, but that's true the entire game. Several times I wanted to throw vases at the TV set last season.

The ultimate poor kneel down didn't happen when the Cowboys were playing. It was the Broncos. In the playoffs versus the Ravens. The Broncos had the game won, but screwed up royally in the secondary allowing the Ravens to tie the score. They got the ball back with 32 seconds and 2 timeouts at the end of regulation and KNELT DOWN! I was appalled. They had Peyton Manning, one of the best ever, and here they were going ultra conservative, playing not to lose. All they needed was a field goal and they win, avoiding OT. Instead they go into OT and lose.

In any event, if it's the end of the half (or the end of regulation with the score tied) I don't think it should automatically be a kneel down. I think it should depend on the circumstances. As long as the field position is decent, I want to see the team try to score. I'm well aware there's some risk, but there's no part of the game that's without risk.

 

[Nav22]

Great post. Couldn't agree more.

You only get so many possessions in a football game, so I don't see the logic behind forfeiting one of them when there's still a realistic amount of time to get into FG range.

30 seconds with 1-2 timeouts is an eternity in today's NFL. If you're not backed up inside your own 20, you should absolutely try to move the ball. The odds of getting into FG range are definitely greater than the odds of turning it over and allowing your opponent to score.

It's a classic "safe play" that isn't actually the safe play. There's nothing safe about needlessly forfeiting a potential scoring opportunity because you were irrationally scared of the worst case scenario.

For every "Tashard Choice at Washington" play, there's probably 20 cases of a team getting a late FG just before the half because they were aggressive despite having under 40 seconds to work with.

 

[Picksix]

I agree, but then you have a situation like last year against the Saints, where they did try to score before the half, but failed. NO got the ball back, we t down and got a FG, and everybody was screaming that they should just run out the clock. The last couple of years, our critical time defense has been so bad, that honestly I think Garrett just wanted to protect them. Give him a defense he can trust, he'll be more aggressive in those situations.

 

[Titleist]

I agree, but then you have a situation like last year against the Saints, where they did try to score before the half, but failed. NO got the ball back, we t down and got a FG, and everybody was screaming that they should just run out the clock. The last couple of years, our critical time defense has been so bad, that honestly I think Garrett just wanted to protect them. Give him a defense he can trust, he'll be more aggressive in those situations.

I don't mind the extra kneel downs because it seems like when we get overconfident it backfires like this

 

[Idgit]

I agree, but then you have a situation like last year against the Saints, where they did try to score before the half, but failed. NO got the ball back, we t down and got a FG, and everybody was screaming that they should just run out the clock. The last couple of years, our critical time defense has been so bad, that honestly I think Garrett just wanted to protect them. Give him a defense he can trust, he'll be more aggressive in those situations.

This is exactly right. But, then, I supported trying to score in that Saints game in the first place. It bit us, but I'd rather go down that way than the way we did in NE in 2011, playing it safe and trusting the defense to hold onto a lead.

Of course, our pass protection and our willingness for our WRs to go up for a contested ball on the sidelines factor into those decisions, too.

 

[Sarge]

You have to pick and choose your spots here. It's not as easy as black and white. You coach/play to your strengths and other teams weaknesses - ie: you certainbly don't want to be giving the ball back to a team like the Saints if you can help it.

 

[joseephuss]

Which games did this occur in during the 2012 season? This isn't a case where generalities apply. Each case is unique.

 

[Picksix]

You have to pick and choose your spots here. It's not as easy as black and white. You coach/play to your strengths and other teams weaknesses - ie: you certainbly don't want to be giving the ball back to a team like the Saints if you can help it.

Yes, but as in the example that Idgit brought up about NE, we tried to run and use up some clock, but that didn't work. NE and NO both have explosive, quick-scoring offenses. Tried two different approaches. Both times, the offense and defense failed. To me, this is the more important thing than the aspects of conservative/aggressive, opposing offenses/defenses, etc. If the offense can't execute, and the defense can't execute, it doesn't really matter what approach they take, or who they're playing against.

 

[CATCH17]

We're too mistake prone to trust these guys in those situations.

I actually like just getting to halftime and not digging ourselves a bigger hole than the one we usually created.


Remember Tashard Choice fumbling against Washington in the opener? Barf.

 

[Future]

You can't take chances like that with a crappy OLine and terrible defense.

 

[CATCH17]

You can't take chances like that with a crappy OLine and terrible defense.

Plus a coach that struggles with managing the end of halfs.

 

[Nation]

I did the work below to look this up, and the O.P. couldn't have been more wrong.

Giants: Half ends with Eli kneel-down

Seahawks: With 1st and 10 on their own 29 and 10 seconds on the clock Romo take a knee

Bucs: Cowboys take over on their own 20 with 57 seconds left and run 7 pass plays. Half ends with Romo pass down the deep middle incomplete to Jason Witten.

Bears: Half ends with Cutler kneel-down

Ravens: Cowboys start their possession with 41 seconds left and one timeout on their own 30. Half ends with a rush by Felix Jones.

Panthers: With two timeouts The Cowboys start their drive off at their own 20, with 14 seconds left. Romo takes a knee to end the half.

Giants: With 1st and 10, 13 seconds left, and on their own 24 and two timeouts Romo takes a knee.

Falcons: Half ends with a Falcons field goal

Eagles: The Cowboys take over on their own 38 with 0 timeouts left and 9 seconds on the clock. Romo kneel down ends half.

Browns: Half ends with a Browns rush on 1st & 10.

Commanders: Cowboys take over with 1st & 20 with 5 seconds left in the half on their own 20. Knee down ends the half.

Eagles: Half ends with an Eagles field goal attempt

Bengals: Half ends with a Bengals kneel down. Cowboys previous drive started at 3:24 and Dallas called 8 pass plays to drive the ball to their own 31

Steelers: Dallas takes over with 34 seconds left on their own 20 with two timeouts left and kneels down to end the half.

Saints: Half ends with a Saints field goal attempt

Commanders: Cowboys take over with 3:28 left in the half and call 7 straight pass plays. Drive ends with a punt from the Washington 34, Ravens run out the clock.

 

[Nation]

If you're into advanced NFL statistics, here is a chart on Expected Points by 1st Down Field Position. It doesn't include clock time, so the probability of scoring goes down late in the half.

 

[Doomsday101]

As you said situations plays a big part. Sometimes the best thing a team can do when things are not going well is take a knee and get in to half time to regroup. As you mentioned field position plays a big part. I see many teams who will run a play on 1st down and depending on the success of the play will help determine if they run another or just take it to the locker room.

 

[joseephuss]

I did the work below to look this up, and the O.P. couldn't have been more wrong.

Giants: Half ends with Eli kneel-down

Seahawks: With 1st and 10 on their own 29 and 10 seconds on the clock Romo take a knee

Bucs: Cowboys take over on their own 20 with 57 seconds left and run 7 pass plays. Half ends with Romo pass down the deep middle incomplete to Jason Witten.

Bears: Half ends with Cutler kneel-down

Ravens: Cowboys start their possession with 41 seconds left and one timeout on their own 30. Half ends with a rush by Felix Jones.

Panthers: With two timeouts The Cowboys start their drive off at their own 20, with 14 seconds left. Romo takes a knee to end the half.

Giants: With 1st and 10, 13 seconds left, and on their own 24 and two timeouts Romo takes a knee.

Falcons: Half ends with a Falcons field goal

Eagles: The Cowboys take over on their own 38 with 0 timeouts left and 9 seconds on the clock. Romo kneel down ends half.

Browns: Half ends with a Browns rush on 1st & 10.

Commanders: Cowboys take over with 1st & 20 with 5 seconds left in the half on their own 20. Knee down ends the half.

Eagles: Half ends with an Eagles field goal attempt

Bengals: Half ends with a Bengals kneel down. Cowboys previous drive started at 3:24 and Dallas called 8 pass plays to drive the ball to their own 31

Steelers: Dallas takes over with 34 seconds left on their own 20 with two timeouts left and kneels down to end the half.

Saints: Half ends with a Saints field goal attempt

Commanders: Cowboys take over with 3:28 left in the half and call 7 straight pass plays. Drive ends with a punt from the Washington 34, Ravens run out the clock.

Thanks for the research. I had a feeling that this was the case.

 

[Idgit]

If you're into advanced NFL statistics, here is a chart on Expected Points by 1st Down Field Position. It doesn't include clock time, so the probability of scoring goes down late in the half.

Interesting. I'd have expected more variation in that data.

 

[AbeBeta]

If you're into advanced NFL statistics, here is a chart on Expected Points by 1st Down Field Position. It doesn't include clock time, so the probability of scoring goes down late in the half.

That is a great graphic. I expect that if it was broken down into different situations (e.g., less than a minute left) you would see the expected points would fall as you enter a situation where you can't keep the defense off balance at all. They run their dime unit out there and you've got doubles on your best guys. Good decision making isn't always the most exciting thing in the world, but clearly the numbers back this approach.

At best, all running a play does is get some cheap stats for guys like Witten who are going to be given a substantial cushion to gain 10 yards or so.

 

[DFWJC]

The Broncos totally blew that game.
Such a fine line between the Ravens even making it it the next round.
That coverage mistake was the worst I can ever remember late in a huge game like that.
Then Manning throws the OT pick. yikes.

I agree about the kneel downs. I see why Dallas did it a couple fo times though. In obvious passing situations with that oline, the odds were not good at all.

By late season, once Dez and Romo were on the same page and the trust was there, the odds of them throwing up to him would have been greater.

They had two or three 3rd and long punt-picks already last year. Of course, in the stat book, it just looks like a pick.

 

[AbeBeta]

Interesting. I'd have expected more variation in that data.

Given the distribution my bet is that these are heavily aggregated numbers. So, for a year you have the average number points scored (or given up) when starting at the one, the two etc. Might be over several years even.

There isn't huge variability b/c there are likely tons of datapoints averaged into each point on the graph.

 

[Idgit]

Given the distribution my bet is that these are heavily aggregated numbers. So, for a year you have the average number points scored (or given up) when starting at the one, the two etc. Might be over several years even.

There isn't huge variability b/c there are likely tons of datapoints averaged into each point on the graph.

You're probably right.

When I think of field position, I always think about how Parcels would love to take a shot once his team got outside it's own 40 yard line. Or about how teams invariably take knees inside the 20s at the end of halves. I expected a somewhat stepped line, as a result, with there being some field positions--red zones, for example, or once you get inside FG range--where the proximity to the end zone alone changes the way plays are called and defended. That data probably exists, but gets blended in with the size of the sample graphed.