I want to see fewer first-half kneel downs

[DMAC]

I probably won't get my way. However, it drove me nuts when we would get the ball behind toward the end of the half with a small amount amount of time on the clock and then kneel down. Drove me nuts. It feels to me like giving up. I understand the reasoning behind it. You don't want to get shell shocked by a sudden screw-up that the other team scores on. I get that. But all situations aren't the same. If you get the ball with 5 seconds left in the half on your own 8 yard line and no timeouts, then I can see kneeling down, especially if we're ahead or tied. But I seem to remember better scenarios. If you get the ball on the 20 with 30 seconds left and two or three timeouts, you've got a decent chance to score at least a field goal. Yes, there's risk of something bad going down, but that's true the entire game. Several times I wanted to throw vases at the TV set last season.

The ultimate poor kneel down didn't happen when the Cowboys were playing. It was the Broncos. In the playoffs versus the Ravens. The Broncos had the game won, but screwed up royally in the secondary allowing the Ravens to tie the score. They got the ball back with 32 seconds and 2 timeouts at the end of regulation and KNELT DOWN! I was appalled. They had Peyton Manning, one of the best ever, and here they were going ultra conservative, playing not to lose. All they needed was a field goal and they win, avoiding OT. Instead they go into OT and lose.

In any event, if it's the end of the half (or the end of regulation with the score tied) I don't think it should automatically be a kneel down. I think it should depend on the circumstances. As long as the field position is decent, I want to see the team try to score. I'm well aware there's some risk, but there's no part of the game that's without risk.

With our QB, I'll take the kneel down vs a possible boneheaded play.

 

[Nav22]

What you are not interpreting correctly in those data is that one point average is across all situations where you get the ball at the 30. With limited time on the clock in what amounts to a pass only situation, your chance of scoring is greatly reduced. Additionally, those data do not address what happens if you go three and out. If you end up having to punt, you are giving the opponent an even stronger shot at scoring. For example if you punt and they get a decent return to their own 40, you've just put them in a better position to score than what you had. So it isn't scoring a field goal every three times you go for it -- it may very well end up with opponent averaging more points over the long run as a result of the silly "go for it!" attitude.

This isn't about media perception -- it is about understanding probability and not just doing things so it looks like you've got brass %$^@s.

Okay, let's use your example.

You have 30 seconds and you're at your own 30, and you decide to be aggressive. But you throw 3 incomplete passes and are then forced to punt. The other team returns that punt to their own 40.

How much time is left on the clock for them? Like 5 seconds tops?

So how are the odds better for the opponent than they are for your own team?

It's not about the odds of your team scoring, it's about which event has a higher probability: your team scoring or your opponent scoring.

Even if the expected points for this scenario was 0.5 points/possession, that would still be MUCH higher than the odds of your opponent getting the ball back with LESS time and scoring.

 

[AbeBeta]

Okay, let's use your example.

You have 30 seconds and you're at your own 30, and you decide to be aggressive. But you throw 3 incomplete passes and are then forced to punt. The other team returns that punt to their own 40.

How much time is left on the clock for them? Like 5 seconds tops?

So how are the odds better for the opponent than they are for your own team?

It's not about the odds of your team scoring, it's about which event has a higher probability: your team scoring or your opponent scoring.

Even if the expected points for this scenario was 0.5 points/possession, that would still be MUCH higher than the odds of your opponent getting the ball back with LESS time and scoring.

You throw three incomplete passes and they may very well have 10 or more seconds left. Plenty of time to run a play and get the FG unit out. In your scenario, you've taken a bad gamble, lost, and turned that into a chance for your opponent. If you start at the 20, they are going to end up with less time but likely far better field position than you started with.

That gamble comes with other potential poor outcomes -- a sack, a pick, a fumble, a blocked punt etc that could put the opponent in great position to score.

 

[Picksix]

To me, this whole thread comes down to situational awareness. Others have mentioned, its not a black and white case...you don't either go for the score or take a knee.

This is where I think JG got a bit better last year, but where he still needs to drastically improve.

Seems like whatever way he decides to go, it tends not to work out, thus it would have better had he done something else.

 

[Red Dragon]

You throw three incomplete passes and they may very well have 10 or more seconds left. Plenty of time to run a play and get the FG unit out.

Why do you think the opposing team would be more successful at getting downfield in 10 seconds than your own team was in 30 seconds?

 

[AbeBeta]

Why do you think the opposing team would be more successful at getting downfield in 10 seconds than your own team was in 30 seconds?

The scenario presented gave them better field position than we were suggested to have started with

 

[Nav22]

The scenario presented gave them better field position than we were suggested to have started with

Um... so you'd rather start from your own 40 with 10 seconds to work with than your own 30 with 30 seconds?

That's irrational enough as it is. But your "10 seconds" is a pipe dream anyways. If each incompletion takes 5 seconds off the clock (which is a pretty conservative estimate), that leaves 15 seconds. The punt AND the return would easily take around 10 seconds, unless the punt was accidentally shanked out of bounds (which hardly ever happens unless the punter completely blows).

In any event, if my QB is as good as Tony Romo, I like my odds of at least not screwing up so royally that my opponent has a better shot to score than I do.

Sorry, AbeBeta. You're a very good poster... but if Romo has 30 seconds to work with from his own 30, there's simply no way the opponent has a better chance at getting points before the half than we do.

Classic case of hurting your team's chances by playing scared because you're irrationally fearful of the worst-case scenario.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

What bothered me was punting on the opponents side of the field and a reasonable distance for a first down. If it's 4th and 4 at their 45 then go for it.

 

[joseephuss]

Um... so you'd rather start from your own 40 with 10 seconds to work with than your own 30 with 30 seconds?

That's irrational enough as it is. But your "10 seconds" is a pipe dream anyways. If each incompletion takes 5 seconds off the clock (which is a pretty conservative estimate), that leaves 15 seconds. The punt AND the return would easily take around 10 seconds, unless the punt was accidentally shanked out of bounds (which hardly ever happens unless the punter completely blows).

In any event, if my QB is as good as Tony Romo, I like my odds of at least not screwing up so royally that my opponent has a better shot to score than I do.

Sorry, AbeBeta. You're a very good poster... but if Romo has 30 seconds to work with from his own 30, there's simply no way the opponent has a better chance at getting points before the half than we do.

Classic case of hurting your team's chances by playing scared because you're irrationally fearful of the worst-case scenario.

A moot point since Dallas did not do that last season going into halftime of their games.

 

[Nav22]

A moot point since Dallas did not do that last season going into halftime of their games.

Yeah, I was mostly debating with hypotheticals anyways. Long offseason. :laugh2: