If Hurricane Ike moves thru Texas this weekend

[Yeagermeister]

My inlaws live in McAllen. I haven't heard if they plan to leave. They didn't leave for Dolly.

 

[DA FAN]

Good luck and stay safe

Thanks Amigo.

My inlaws live in McAllen. I haven't heard if they plan to leave. They didn't leave for Dolly.

Hope all turns out fine for them too.

 

[WoodysGirl]

Ike to become a major hurricane? Answer coming soon.

Hurricane Ike has re-developed a distinct eye tonight and now has sustained 80 mph winds.

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Tonight and tomorrow will be critical toward answering the question of how strong Ike becomes before making landfall in Texas late Friday or early Saturday. The official forecast still calls for a 120-mph hurricane to develop by Thursday night. The computer guidance remains widely split, however, between a category 1 and category 3 hurricane prior to landfall.

The models do a poor job of capturing the rapid intensity that can occur when hurricanes cross the Loop Current, however, and Ike should traverse the warmest areas during the next 24 hours. Therefore, if Ike hasn't shown signs of appreciably strenghtening by early Thursday it probably won't reach major hurricane status by landfall.

The track forecast also remains problematic tonight as the models cannot agree upon when to turn Ike northwest-ward.

Some foresee a turn after Ike reaches land, taking Ike toward South Texas. Others see a quicker turn, bringing Ike toward the central Texas coast. Here are this evening's model runs:

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Don't focus too much on the models yet as they're still subject to significant errors.

HURRICANE IKE
Interactive tracking map
Five-day forecast
Historical map
Computer models
Wind map
Satellite photo
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Hurricane Central
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The best model last year averaged an error of 100 miles three days before landfall, while others were 150 to 200 miles off. Ike, therefore, is still a threat to the entire Texas coast, but especially areas from just south of Corpus Christi north to Galveston.

The official forecast remains centered upon Port Lavaca.

According to the hurricane center, Houston has a 52 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm winds, and a 10 percent chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds, and Corpus Christi has about the same odds.

Tomorrow I'll have a full update on the models, and a bit later in the morning I plan to review the accuracy of three-day forecasts of major Gulf hurricanes.

Posted by Eric Berger at 10:15 PM | Comments (2)

 

[poke]

Houston suits up at Reliant Stadium. It's an open structure so they'd just get buttloads of rain. hopefully Ike will land in extrememe south Texas or upper Mexico and just rain alot. Hopefully this time next week we'll be watching hurricane Romo.

FYI......Reliant has a retractable roof

 

[WoodysGirl]

FYI......Reliant has a retractable roof

Retractable roof made of glass. In a stadium 80% covered by glass. In an area prone to heavy flooding.

 

[WoodysGirl]

Live chat with Hurricane tracking blogger is going on...

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

 

[Yeagermeister]

Retractable roof made of glass. In a stadium 80% covered by glass. In an area prone to heavy flooding.

Can you say fish bowl :laugh2:

I kid but I hope no one gets hurt.

 

[WoodysGirl]

Can you say fish bowl :laugh2:

I kid but I hope no one gets hurt.

Me, too. They're already talking about moving the Texans game to Mon.

Some areas are evacuating and school districts are closing. My job hasn't said a thing about it. So I'm not sure wht to do.

 

[Doomsday101]

Me, too. They're already talking about moving the Texans game to Mon.

Some areas are evacuating and school districts are closing. My job hasn't said a thing about it. So I'm not sure wht to do.

Depending on what side of town you are in will at least help you determine what you should do. I live in the Spring Branch area so even if it hit closer to us there is no reason for me to evacuate. Those on the lower lying areas would clearly need to move to higher ground

 

[WoodysGirl]

Depending on what side of town you are in will at least help you determine what you should do. I live in the Spring Branch area so even if it hit closer to us there is no reason for me to evacuate. Those on the lower lying areas would clearly need to move to higher ground

I'm off i-45s and the beltway. Pasadena/Ellington/Friendswood area.
I would need to leave my house anyway, based on the current shift, but I wouldn't necessarily need to evacuate.

However, I was planning to go out of town this weekend anyway. So it's really just a matter of timing and if I need to pack extra stuff to go with me.

Based on the blogger and the current shift towards Freeport, I don't have to worry so much about storm surge as we do high winds and maybe the normal flooding.

 

[Yeagermeister]

I'm off i-45s and the beltway. Pasadena/Ellington/Friendswood area.
I would need to leave my house anyway, based on the current shift, but I wouldn't necessarily need to evacuate.

However, I was planning to go out of town this weekend anyway. So it's really just a matter of timing and if I need to pack extra stuff to go with me.

Based on the blogger and the current shift towards Freeport, I don't have to worry so much about storm surge as we do high winds and maybe the normal flooding.

One of the few pluses of living in TN....no hurricane worries

 

[DallasCowpoke]

One of the few pluses of living in TN....no hurricane worries

You apparently have never seen what unnatural phenomena, 3 or 4 fat-girls, in-line at a Memphis BBQ joint, can conjure up, when "last call for ribs" is announced!!??

:storm:

 

[WoodysGirl]

One of the few pluses of living in TN....no hurricane worries

Aren't you in tornado alley? At least you can know when the hurricanes coming.

 

[DallasCowpoke]

Aren't you in tornado alley? At least you can know when the hurricanes coming.

Y'all don't have 75 views, from every local station with storm-tracker, Doppler radar, breaking into programing at the FIRST sign of haze gray skies?

 

[big dog cowboy]

You apparently have never seen what unnatural phenomena, 3 or 4 fat-girls, in-line at a Memphis BBQ joint, can conjure up, when "last call for ribs" is announced!!??

:storm:

:laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2:

 

[Yeagermeister]

You apparently have never seen what unnatural phenomena, 3 or 4 fat-girls, in-line at a Memphis BBQ joint, can conjure up, when "last call for ribs" is announced!!??

:storm:

It's not just that girls you have to watch out for. Those senior citizens are just as dangerous. Don't get between Grandma and Grandpa and their ribs. :laugh2:

Aren't you in tornado alley? At least you can know when the hurricanes coming.

I wouldn't say we are in tornado alley but we get an occasional threat.