Imagine if Wade pulled a Belichik

[JohnsKey19]

At least this call will dominate the headlines/TV for a few days and we dont have to hear how the Cowboys are frauds again.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

Much to my surprise most of the analysts on tv and radio are bashing Belicheat for that move last night
I think Wade probably would have done the same thing given that we have lots of ways of getting a yard or 2
..but if Wade had done that he would have probably been fired today

Wade might have been fired today, yes.

But Wade has no sterling HC record. Wade has no Super Bowl Tropies.
Thus the difference in the treatment of the two. Jimma would agree with me on this.

 

[AdamJT13]

That call was playing the percentages!?

Making that call on the Colts 40 yard line is playing the percentages

Yes, it is playing the percentages. The odds of making the first down OR preventing the Colts from scoring a touchdown (either of which would have won the game) were greater than the odds of preventing the Colts from scoring a touchdown if the Patriots had punted.

Research has shown that teams would be much better off if they went for it on fourth down much more often than they do. But coaches are afraid to go for it and fail, so it looks like a huge gamble when they go for it on fourth down. In reality, it's not.

Here's an explanation of the odds surrounding last night's play --

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

"Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option."

 

[Hoofbite]

I don't think any amount of fancy painting in regards to "odds" can honestly say that Bill made the right choice.

This isn't blackjack in Vegas. There's far too many different possible occurrences between the punt and a Colts score to say the odds of them scoring or not scoring is any definite amount.

 

[AdamJT13]

I don't think any amount of fancy painting in regards to "odds" can honestly say that Bill made the right choice.

This isn't blackjack in Vegas. There's far too many different possible occurrences between the punt and a Colts score to say the odds of them scoring or not scoring is any definite amount.

You don't have to say it's a definite amount (although you can estimate it based on their history). But it's pretty clear that there is a relationship between the odds of them scoring from the Patriots' 28 or 29 and the odds of them scoring from their own 30 or 35 after the punt. And the difference between those odds isn't great enough to outweigh the odds of the Patriots converting.

 

[Aikmaniac]

Yes, just imagine if Wade were to win multiple Superbowls........

^ That pretty much ends the thread right there.

If I was a Pats fan, I'd give BB the benefit of the doubt.

 

[kramskoi]

Much to my surprise most of the analysts on tv and radio are bashing Belicheat for that move last night
I think Wade probably would have done the same thing given that we have lots of ways of getting a yard or 2
..but if Wade had done that he would have probably been fired today

...he was cooked regardless and he knew it...does'nt absolve the call...you play the percentages but Manning was going to drive the ball down and score anyway in that type of situation...Faulk did'nt get deep enough on his route on 4th-2 and it cost them the game...i still think they are a better team than Indianapolis though...