CFZ In the “Player Safety” era, players aren’t playing as long and rosters churn mightily

[T-RO]

Usually the bad teams have bigger roster churns than those who are contenders or close.

Not sure if this is true.

Chiefs can't afford to keep some of its top players so they load up on picks and churn like crazy. 11 of their 53 players this last year were rookies.

 

[Bobhaze]

What's the real cause of shorter careers?
Analytics and self-scouting.

Until the past five years players could often stay in the league well after they deserved to because they had a big-name. Now most teams scrutinize and measure without so much emotional sentiment.

Emmitt Smith's last four years in the league?
3.9 yards per carry
3.8
2.8
3.5

He was toast, but he kept getting a roster spot and carries because of his reputation. Smith played 13 years. If he came into the league now he'd only have lasted 6-8 years.

You may be right that Emmitt in this era wouldn’t have lasted near as long as he did, because these days RBs just aren’t valued nearly as much. The value of having a RB who can carry the ball 20-25 times a game has dropped through the floor because the market for QBs and WRs has skyrocketed.

Not sure if this is true.

Chiefs can't afford to keep some of its top players so they load up on picks and churn like crazy. 11 of their 53 players this last year were rookies.

That’s why I said “usually” and not “always.”

 

[T-RO]

Playing 20 games a year is ridiculous. That puts players in an early grave.

Again, not sure about your statement.

Years ago starters often played a lot in pre-season, and there were 6 preseason games. Now, hardly at all. And the most demanding positions (RB, DE, DT) are now handled more by committee/rotations.

Micah Parsons typically played about 70-75% of snaps this year. Tank and other d-linemen less than that. Back in the day such players would have been expected to play almost every down.

Look around the league and all but a few teams use running back by committee. Much lighter load on running backs in this era.

 

[AbeBeta]

It may seem strange but in the era of increased player safety, the average career of an NFL player is now only 3 seasons which is down an avg of two years since 2000. Byron Jones’ announced retirement at age 30 at the height of his earning power is a reminder that these NFL players are gladiators who are paid well but aren’t lasting as long as their predecessors of the last 30 years. And the roster churn that happens every off-season means more than 40% of the roster we had in Dallas in 2022 won’t be here next year.

Modern NFL players are not playing as long as the past. Look at the evidence by decade:

• In the 1990s, there were 83 players who appeared in 150 or more games.
• From 2000-09, that number dropped to 63.
• From 2010-19, it was down to 37.

And…NFL rosters churn quite a bit every year. NFL rosters are extremely unstable. On average only 56% of players return to the same team from one year to the next and two years out it is just around 35%. That means each year the average NFL team will keep a little more than half of their players on their active roster.

So which Cowboys players will be the more than 40% of the roster we say goodbye to this year?

Here’s a link to an article by I read by over the cap.com from 2020 that has some of the info I shared here.
https://overthecap.com/roster-turnover-in-the-nfl

Gee, could it be that the pay is much better now so guys are more comfortable walking away?

 

[T-RO]

You may be right that Emmitt in this era wouldn’t have lasted near as long as he did, because these days RBs just aren’t valued nearly as much. The value of having a RB who can carry the ball 20-25 times a game has dropped through the floor because the market for QBs and WRs has skyrocketed.

It's not just the devaluation of RBs--it's the recognition of their fast decline. Emmitt just wasn't any good the last 1/4 of his career, and was nothing special the last half of his career. In totality Smith averaged under 4 yards per carry 1996-2004.

There was a time when coaches love their "grizzled old veterans". Now when players lose a step or two of speed they are much more likely to be shown the door.

 

[Flamma]

I'm surprised more players don't retire earlier. But I'm guessing those that get paid big, often spend big.

 

[erod]

They make so much money on that first big contract in year 4, they can just walk away shortly after. The game means very little to most players these days.

 

[Havic]

Good Qb's can play into their 40's while everyone else is lucky to make it to 30

 

[rambo2]

They make so much money on that first big contract in year 4, they can just walk away shortly after. The game means very little to most players these days.

Half of them are broke.

 

[Rockport]

It may seem strange but in the era of increased player safety, the average career of an NFL player is now only 3 seasons which is down an avg of two years since 2000. Byron Jones’ announced retirement at age 30 at the height of his earning power is a reminder that these NFL players are gladiators who are paid well but aren’t lasting as long as their predecessors of the last 30 years. And the roster churn that happens every off-season means more than 40% of the roster we had in Dallas in 2022 won’t be here next year.

Modern NFL players are not playing as long as the past. Look at the evidence by decade:

• In the 1990s, there were 83 players who appeared in 150 or more games.
• From 2000-09, that number dropped to 63.
• From 2010-19, it was down to 37.

And…NFL rosters churn quite a bit every year. NFL rosters are extremely unstable. On average only 56% of players return to the same team from one year to the next and two years out it is just around 35%. That means each year the average NFL team will keep a little more than half of their players on their active roster.

So which Cowboys players will be the more than 40% of the roster we say goodbye to this year?

Here’s a link to an article by I read by over the cap.com from 2020 that has some of the info I shared here.
https://overthecap.com/roster-turnover-in-the-nfl

Salary cap plays into it as well. Players making a lot are getting cut and some just retire on all the money they’ve made.

 

[DanA]

It may seem strange but in the era of increased player safety, the average career of an NFL player is now only 3 seasons which is down an avg of two years since 2000. Byron Jones’ announced retirement at age 30 at the height of his earning power is a reminder that these NFL players are gladiators who are paid well but aren’t lasting as long as their predecessors of the last 30 years. And the roster churn that happens every off-season means more than 40% of the roster we had in Dallas in 2022 won’t be here next year.

Modern NFL players are not playing as long as the past. Look at the evidence by decade:

• In the 1990s, there were 83 players who appeared in 150 or more games.
• From 2000-09, that number dropped to 63.
• From 2010-19, it was down to 37.

And…NFL rosters churn quite a bit every year. NFL rosters are extremely unstable. On average only 56% of players return to the same team from one year to the next and two years out it is just around 35%. That means each year the average NFL team will keep a little more than half of their players on their active roster.

So which Cowboys players will be the more than 40% of the roster we say goodbye to this year?

Here’s a link to an article by I read by over the cap.com from 2020 that has some of the info I shared here.
https://overthecap.com/roster-turnover-in-the-nfl

There are a few issues here.

1. Rosters are bigger and the talent pool outside the NFL is greater than ever. It's not an apple-to-apple comparison
2. Money is bigger than ever so top players only really need a year or two on their second contract to be set for life
3. Players are more educated/aware of long-term implications than ever
4. The game is bigger, faster, and stronger. That creates more risk
5. Rookie contracts artificially reduce the cost of players in the first four years.

When you do the math 40% isn't that much considering about half that churn will be the new rookies coming in. In terms of who the 40% will be. About 80% of it is pretty clear to me. It's a combination of out-of-contract guys, unfavorable contracts, and guys at the bottom of the roster:

• Out of Contract: Shultz, Wilson, A.Brown, N.Brown, Hilton, LVE, Barr, Fowler, Hankins, McGovern, Peters, Watkins, Maher, Goodwin, Rush
• Unfavorable Contracts; Tyron Smith, Zeke,
• Bottom of the roster: Dowdle, Rush, Gifford,

At most maybe 5 of those 20 players remain on the roster in 2023/24.

 

[T-RO]

I'm surprised more players don't retire earlier. But I'm guessing those that get paid big, often spend big.

Terrell Owens made $80 million...all gone within 10 years.

https://www.yahoo.com/video/earned-estimated-80m-fortune-then-215741771.html

 

[75boyz]

Seems like the only 2 positions that possibly buck the trend lately are QBs and o-linemen.
Nowadays I see a lot more of these 2 positions hanging on into their mid to upper 30s, if not 40s.

 

[Wizarus]

It makes no sense to play in the league for that long. Football breaks you down physically and mentally. Multiple concussions and a very dangerous scare just this season, and every year these players take that risk.

 

[DuncanIso]

Read the latest story’s on Bryon Jones after 8 years in the league. He’s saying Do Not take any pills or drugs that your trainers give you. He’s a very smart kid.

He’s made some $$$. Get out now.

3 million in the bank is 120k per year at 4 percent.

 

[beware_d-ware]

I like seeing some of the stars of the game walk away while they still can.

I watched a Joe Rogan podcast a while ago, where he spoke with Conor McGregor's trainer. The trainer told Conor, "you are a prize fighter. You take damage in exchange for money. So if you are not making a LOT of money, you need to leave UFC immediately."

Different sports, but the sentiment in the NFL should be the same. Make a lot of money, SAVE it, and use it to leave before football physically destroys you.

 

[blueblood70]

What's the real cause of shorter careers?
Analytics and self-scouting.

Until the past five years players could often stay in the league well after they deserved to because they had a big-name. Now most teams scrutinize and measure without so much emotional sentiment.

Emmitt Smith's last four years in the league?
3.9 yards per carry
3.8
2.8
3.5

He was toast, but he kept getting a roster spot and carries because of his reputation. Smith played 13 years. If he came into the league now he'd only have lasted 6-8 years.

year 1 under 4, year 7 3.7 worse then zeke year 7

just saying. He went with the OL same with Zeke..sorry its fact and he also had about 4 seasons around 4 only one that was 5.. he was a volume back that needed carried. If you judge a volume big back by YPC they all would suck in todays fans minds.,

more info, Pollard last 5 of 6 games and the 9er game under 3.8, i believe no tds the last 5 games

Polard game 1 TB, 1.8(zeke 5.2) ,Washington 1 0.8, Washington 2 1.8

shall i bring in some more or we going to pick on zeke as if its only him..many of those high YPC games for Pollard was big play made but also the line was blockig well and zeke was also at 5+ and one game 6..

 

[T-RO]

year 1 under 4, year 7 3.7 worse then zeke year 7

just saying. He went with the OL same with Zeke..sorry its fact and he also had about 4 seasons around 4 only one that was 5.. he was a volume back that needed carried. If you judge a volume big back by YPC they all would suck in todays fans minds.,

more info, Pollard last 5 of 6 games and the 9er game under 3.8, i believe no tds the last 5 games

Polard game 1 TB, 1.8(zeke 5.2) ,Washington 1 0.8, Washington 2 1.8

shall i bring in some more or we going to pick on zeke as if its only him..many of those high YPC games for Pollard was big play made but also the line was blockig well and zeke was also at 5+ and one game 6..

Volume back. Bell-cow back. These notions are dying--and for good reason. It's all about production-per-play, and 95% of teams have learned you want two, even three backs spreading the load and packing the punch.

Oh and this: Zeke is done. Complete JAG at this point. Most everyone sees it.

 

[eromeopolk]

It may seem strange but in the era of increased player safety, the average career of an NFL player is now only 3 seasons which is down an avg of two years since 2000. Byron Jones’ announced retirement at age 30 at the height of his earning power is a reminder that these NFL players are gladiators who are paid well but aren’t lasting as long as their predecessors of the last 30 years. And the roster churn that happens every off-season means more than 40% of the roster we had in Dallas in 2022 won’t be here next year.

Modern NFL players are not playing as long as the past. Look at the evidence by decade:

• In the 1990s, there were 83 players who appeared in 150 or more games.
• From 2000-09, that number dropped to 63.
• From 2010-19, it was down to 37.

And…NFL rosters churn quite a bit every year. NFL rosters are extremely unstable. On average only 56% of players return to the same team from one year to the next and two years out it is just around 35%. That means each year the average NFL team will keep a little more than half of their players on their active roster.

So which Cowboys players will be the more than 40% of the roster we say goodbye to this year?

Here’s a link to an article by I read by over the cap.com from 2020 that has some of the info I shared here.
https://overthecap.com/roster-turnover-in-the-nfl

Nothing really changed. The Cowboys just don't have the management and coaching to win championships with roster churning and young players. See Tom Landry (expansion, Dirty Dozen), Jimmy Johnson (1989-1992), and even Parcells (2003-2006), before he was ran off, handled young players and roster churning.

Bill Belichick had only one consistency in his Cowboy like 20 year run and collected 6 Super Bowls. Like Landry, Johnson, and Parcells, Belichick was notorious for getting rid of veterans before they aged out the NFL or cost out the NFL.

You either manage change or change will manage you.

 

[Bobhaze]

Nothing really changed. The Cowboys just don't have the management and coaching to win championships with roster churning and young players. See Tom Landry (expansion, Dirty Dozen), Jimmy Johnson (1989-1992), and even Parcells (2003-2006), before he was ran off, handled young players and roster churning.

Bill Belichick had only one consistency in his Cowboy like 20 year run and collected 6 Super Bowls. Like Landry, Johnson, and Parcells, Belichick was notorious for getting rid of veterans before they aged out the NFL or cost out the NFL.

You either manage change or change will manage you.

Well said. Jerry has had the bad habit of waiting too long to say goodbye to vets for decades. The best coaches/GMs don’t wait until fans can tell it’s time. They get rid of people before it’s obvious.