Inefficiency of our first down runs and passing game bailing us out on 3rd down

[CowboyRoy]

Also notice the inefficiency on 2nd down runs.


https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...rst-down-efficiency-dak-prescott-offense-2023

Looking over this data, it’s clear the Cowboys, who finished third in the league in scoring in 2022, had serious problems on first down, running the ball at a clip higher than almost anyone in the league and falling significantly below league average in each efficiency category on first down. This put them in poor positions, and forced the quarterback, Dak Prescott, to be a hero on second and third downs in order to convert a new set of downs.

This is illustrated by Dak’s air yards per attempt numbers (and rank among QBs w/ 100 plays of each down):

• 1st down: 6.3 (27th)
• 2nd down: 7.8 (7th)
• 3rd down: 11.3 (2nd)

If Mike McCarthy can put a heavier emphasis on first down in 2023, and the Cowboys can improve their ability to generate positive results early in a series. It will make them a more consistent and explosive unit.

Oh, and the last time Mike McCarthy called plays for an NFL team, the 2018 Green Bay Packers finished seventh in EPA per play and third in success rate on first down, while passing on first down at the second highest rate in the league. So he’s done it before.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

How did leading the NFL in INTS while missing 5 games hurt the offense?

 

[Rock423]

How did leading the NFL in INTS while missing 5 games hurt the offense?

Tell me you didn’t read the post, without telling me.

 

[America's Cowboy]

How did leading the NFL in INTS while missing 5 games hurt the offense?

Here. Learn some football, and shut it with the uneducated nonsense already. You sound extremely ignorant.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Here. Learn some football, and shut it with the uneducated nonsense already. You sound extremely ignorant.

I don't care about Dak over Dallas fans excuse posts.

I won't waste a second wacthing a 'Dak excuse" video.

 

[gtb1943]

I don't care about Dak over Dallas fans excuse posts.

I won't waste a second wacthing a 'Dak excuse" video.

Just shows you how far gone the dak fanboobs are when they claim that out of 17 picks he is responsible for none of them.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Just shows you how far gone the dak fanboobs are when they claim that out of 17 picks he is responsible for none of them.

They think Cowboys fans are going to watch their Dak propaganda and it's going to change our minds.

 

[America's Cowboy]

I don't care about Dak over Dallas fans excuse posts.

I won't waste a second wacthing a 'Dak excuse" video.

That's because your sole purpose is to troll every Dak thread (which is against CZ's rules). Unbelievable how you haven't been punished.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

That's because your sole purpose is to troll every Dak thread (which is against CZ's rules). Unbelievable how you haven't been punished.

The "punish anyone that thinks Dak sucks" attitude is why you'll never be in any position to punish anyone.

You don't believe in Dak either. You're just jealous if us that aren't afraid to say it. It makes you mad so you rebel like a child. If you keep replying to me I'll prove to everyone here that you don't believe in Dak and are simply playing a character here. So, hush up now.

 

[America's Cowboy]

The "punish anyone that thinks Dak sucks" attitude is why you'll never be in any position to punish anyone.

You don't believe in Dak either. You're just jealous if us that aren't afraid to say it. It makes you mad so you rebel like a child. If you keep replying to me I'll prove to everyone here that you don't believe in Dak and are simply playing a character here. So, hush up now.

The video proves you wrong, yet you keep trolling every Dak thread while spewing the same vile lies. Yeah, you're deliberately breaking forum rules, AND YOU KNOW IT!!!

 

[Mr_437]

Defenses knew the plays on those run downs for Dallas. Furthermore, if 1st down was an incomplete on they'd run on 2nd, and choose from the same run plays as their 1st down tendencies.

Predictable.

 

[Typhus]

Also notice the inefficiency on 2nd down runs.


https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...rst-down-efficiency-dak-prescott-offense-2023

Looking over this data, it’s clear the Cowboys, who finished third in the league in scoring in 2022, had serious problems on first down, running the ball at a clip higher than almost anyone in the league and falling significantly below league average in each efficiency category on first down. This put them in poor positions, and forced the quarterback, Dak Prescott, to be a hero on second and third downs in order to convert a new set of downs.

This is illustrated by Dak’s air yards per attempt numbers (and rank among QBs w/ 100 plays of each down):

• 1st down: 6.3 (27th)
• 2nd down: 7.8 (7th)
• 3rd down: 11.3 (2nd)

If Mike McCarthy can put a heavier emphasis on first down in 2023, and the Cowboys can improve their ability to generate positive results early in a series. It will make them a more consistent and explosive unit.

Oh, and the last time Mike McCarthy called plays for an NFL team, the 2018 Green Bay Packers finished seventh in EPA per play and third in success rate on first down, while passing on first down at the second highest rate in the league. So he’s done it before.

Not being extremely predictable on 1st down will go a very long way in improving the offensive efficiency metric.

Taking Zeke out of the equation on first down at least inspires some disguise.

We have a group of RBs that have their fair share of flaws, but considerably different attributes as well.

Lets take a look at what we are rolling with currently and please add notations to these opinions.

Pollard - we already know what we have in Pollard, he has a proven and established skill set that leads this backfield if/when healthy.

M. Davis - Im putiing MD ahead of Duece at the moment, rooks need to prove a lot still.

DV - Duece has a lot to learn before he can be considered viable RB2, and if we have to rely on the rook for RB1 status than we will be opening the rolodex for Zeke return or Fournette.

Luepke before Jones? - Yes Luepke has the potential to gain a significant role if he earns the staffs approval early with understanding block assignments, so Luepke is in play vs DV for snap count in game.

So Luepke and DV both accelerate their value early when they both understand how important this area of their game is and how it translates to time in offense.

Leaves us With Dowdle and Jones, Both IMO are camp legs, esp Jones, bet they run him hard vs starters in camp, both good camp legs, but we need fresh legs from our starting backfield entering regular season play.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Oh, and the last time Mike McCarthy called plays for an NFL team, the 2018 Green Bay Packers finished seventh in EPA per play and third in success rate on first down, while passing on first down at the second highest rate in the league. So he’s done it before.

This stands in contrast with MM's statement "just run the damn ball". After not drafting a RB or OL early, that starts looking like a smokescreen. We'll see at the end of the season how much more (if any) MM runs the ball.

The play calling philosophy on first down is an interesting subject.

Dallas ranked 11th in running on first down last season, at 36.6%

KC was 30th at 25.68%.

SF was 8th and Phlly was 4th, but I suspect having a running QB skewed Philly's ranking.

I wish Dallas would open it up, spread it out, attack, and force the defense to back off- but it's ultimately about taking what the defense is giving. First downs keep your own defense off the field, not running plays.

 

[Typhus]

You can't help yourself so lets expose your fakeness.

My account against yours.

Dak throws for 3,000+ yards, 30 TDs, and less than 12 INTS.
Dak leads the Cowboys to the Super Bowl.
Dak finishes top 3 in the MVP voting.

If ANY of those 3 things happen I'll never post again. If none of those happen you never post again.

Deal?

Show everyone how your Dak belief is fake.

Why do you continually insist on putting other posters accounts on the line for approval rating,,,
Just seems over board to me, why not just continue to engage in conversation.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Dak throws for 3,000+ yards, 30 TDs, and less than 12 INTS.

He actually did that in 2019.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Defenses knew the plays on those run downs for Dallas. Furthermore, if 1st down was an incomplete on they'd run on 2nd, and choose from the same run plays as their 1st down tendencies.

Predictable.

Yep, exactly. And with Zeke mostly getting the ball on first down, its predictable because he cant bounce it outside. Same on 2nd down if they pass first.

Its soo obvious with many measurable and any way possible how much Zeke hurt this offense.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Not being extremely predictable on 1st down will go a very long way in improving the offensive efficiency metric.

Taking Zeke out of the equation on first down at least inspires some disguise.

We have a group of RBs that have their fair share of flaws, but considerably different attributes as well.

Lets take a look at what we are rolling with currently and please add notations to these opinions.

Pollard - we already know what we have in Pollard, he has a proven and established skill set that leads this backfield if/when healthy.

M. Davis - Im putiing MD ahead of Duece at the moment, rooks need to prove a lot still.

DV - Duece has a lot to learn before he can be considered viable RB2, and if we have to rely on the rook for RB1 status than we will be opening the rolodex for Zeke return or Fournette.

Luepke before Jones? - Yes Luepke has the potential to gain a significant role if he earns the staffs approval early with understanding block assignments, so Luepke is in play vs DV for snap count in game.

So Luepke and DV both accelerate their value early when they both understand how important this area of their game is and how it translates to time in offense.

Leaves us With Dowdle and Jones, Both IMO are camp legs, esp Jones, bet they run him hard vs starters in camp, both good camp legs, but we need fresh legs from our starting backfield entering regular season play.

If the Oline can block, these running backs with do their fair share of damage and have big plays.

I just dont think this line will be up to task. Maybe for a stretch with everyone healthy. But once Tyron goes down the musical chairs begin, thats when it ends.

 

[CowboyRoy]

This stands in contrast with MM's statement "just run the damn ball". After not drafting a RB or OL early, that starts looking like a smokescreen. We'll see at the end of the season how much more (if any) MM runs the ball.

The play calling philosophy on first down is an interesting subject.

Dallas ranked 11th in running on first down last season, at 36.6%

KC was 30th at 25.68%.

SF was 8th and Phlly was 4th, but I suspect having a running QB skewed Philly's ranking.

I wish Dallas would open it up, spread it out, attack, and force the defense to back off- but it's ultimately about taking what the defense is giving. First downs keep your own defense off the field, not running plays.

The personnel on this team points to a spread them out, pass first team with big play RB's making them pay when they go nickel, dime, and cheat to stop the passing game.

Problem again is the oline.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Why do you continually insist on putting other posters accounts on the line for approval rating,,,
Just seems over board to me, why not just continue to engage in conversation.

Why dont you just put him on ignore? I figured that one out the first 20 posts.

 

[jazzcat22]

Tell me you didn’t read the post, without telling me.

That is his typical stuff. He finds something and repeats it for a year.
He wants Dak to fail and has stated so. He rather we go 0-17, then to make the playoffs where anything can happen.

Half of his posts count is repetitive Dak hate.