Interesting observations by KC Joyner

bpfred

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KC Joyner contributes to website http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/. Sometimes he writes about the Cowboys.

For those that aren't aware, he grades last year's plays by player (for all of the positions) and publishes a book with them. One of the statistics he keeps for offensive linemen deals with the running game, and whether they made their block at the Point of Attack (POA) or got beat by the defense. Those statistics are included in the book.

Here is something he wrote about the Cowboys running game in 2008 (on the website above).

"...I have some interesting Scientific Football Cowboys running back material to share. One of the research areas I am tracking for the book is running back productivity on rushes in which there are no Point of Attack (POA) blocking losses versus rushes with at least one POA blocking loss.
The disparity between the “all-win” POA runs and runs with at least one loss has been fairly significant for all of the backs I’ve tallied up to this point, but the Dallas backs may have the largest disparity of all. Check out the numbers:
Running back Runs w/no POA losses Yds YPA Runs w/at least one POA loss Yds YPA
Marion Barber 145 726 5.0 93 159 1.7
Felix Jones 23 249 10.8 7 17 2.4
Tashard Choice 60 433 7.2 32 39 1.2
Totals 228 1408 6.2 132 215 1.6

The metrics that stand out here are Felix Jones and Tashard Choice’s Yards Per Attempt (YPA) totals in the no POA losses category. They gained a combined total of 682 yards on 83 runs here, or 8.2 YPA. The Boys’ O-line as a whole did not play up to its potential in run blocking (three of their players were at the unacceptable POA win mark of 80% or lower), but if they can improve their consistency even by just a few percentage points, it could mean huge dividends in their rushing productivity."

Joyner hasn't published his book yet, but he has sent out run blocking statistics for about half the league (for people who pre-ordered his book). The interior linemen for the Cowboys last year (Proctor, Gurode, and Davis) were pretty bad run-blockers. Their POA wins (using Joyner's grading system) were 79.0%, 77.0%, and 77.5% respectively. A really top run blocker will win over 90% of their matchups. The absolutely top guys, like Mangold (NYJ) or Neal (NE) win 94% plus. Adams and Columbo won 85.9% and 84.4% respectively.

The success of the Cowboys emphasis on the running game may have a lot more to do with the interior of the line improving their blocking than anything else.

As a standard of comparison for starting offensive lineman within the division (in 08): Every Commander lineman was over 80%, all of the Eagles were except Jean-Gilles 76.5% and he had nearly the same number of snaps as Cole who was over 80%, and every Giants lineman was over 80%, except Diehl @ 77.5%.

Kozier and Holland barely had enough runs behind them to be statistically meaningful, but Kozier was the worst of the lineman with 76.9% (on 26 attempts) and Holland was better at 82.4% (on 17 attempts).

Let me emphasize--all of the above stats are for run-blocking only.
 

burmafrd

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I can see why Gurode might not have good numbers with Proctor right next to him, but what was Bigg's excuse?
 

NextGenBoys

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A healthy Kosier will help, but this right here is why I dont want us to be a run oriented team.

There is nothing to suggest that our offensive line can handle it.

You can still be a pass first team, and keep defenses honest, and minimize turnovers.

That is where Marty B and Felix come in. We have so many options with Barber, Witten, Felix, and Bennett in the game.

I want a balanced attack, dont get me wrong. But I dont want us to be a run-first team. I dont think it will work.
 

theogt

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Yes, the line was pitiful last year, run and pass blocking. They nearly got our QB killed. It's a wonder he even managed to finish the season. If our O-line throws up another performance like '08, there's little chance we make the playoffs.
 

TwentyOne

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burmafrd;2840457 said:
I can see why Gurode might not have good numbers with Proctor right next to him, but what was Bigg's excuse?

Statistically Proctor is the best of the three so someone could argue that Proctor sucked because of Gurode too.
 

NextGenBoys

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theogt;2840464 said:
Yes, the line was pitiful last year, run and pass blocking. They nearly got our QB killed. It's a wonder he even managed to finish the season. If our O-line throws up another performance like '08, there's little chance we make the playoffs.

When they played to their potential, (the games that come to mind right away are the first three, and @ Wash) we were very hard to beat.

It all starts up front thats for sure.
 

theogt

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TwentyOne;2840468 said:
Statistically Proctor is the best of the three so someone could argue that Proctor sucked because of Gurode too.
Or you could argue that his statistics are incredibly subjective and completely useless given that it's impossible to know, with much level of certainty, blocking assignments.
 

Yeagermeister

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TwentyOne;2840468 said:
Statistically Proctor is the best of the three so someone could argue that Proctor sucked because of Gurode too.

Proctor doesn't need any help in sucking and if this guys stats say he was one of the best then that tells me all I need to know.

theogt;2840473 said:
Or you could argue that his statistics are incredibly subjective and completely useless given that it's impossible to know, with much level of certainty, blocking assignments.

There are lies, damn lies and statistics
 

Seven

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theogt;2840473 said:
Or you could argue that his statistics are incredibly subjective and completely useless given that it's impossible to know, with much level of certainty, blocking assignments.


:hammer:

What's next? TSGIME stats? Which way the ball bounced, off of what end, carried in the left hand when tackled from behind by a Bronco? With or without a horse-collar?
 

Chocolate Lab

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NextGenBoys;2840461 said:
A healthy Kosier will help, but this right here is why I dont want us to be a run oriented team.

There is nothing to suggest that our offensive line can handle it.
I was a cornerback and running back in my tiny little insignificant football life, so maybe I don't know what I'm talking about, but I still say that an OL will do a lot better job run blocking when it knows it's going to be able to fire off the ball and attack people instead of dropping back and catching pass rushers all day. That's why even when we do pass, I wish we'd do more play-action from under center rather than that stupid shotgun draw 100 times a game. We have big, strong guys up front... Let them get off the ball and hit people.

Not that the coaching and individual play doesn't need to be better, because it does. But still, I think it would help us to develop that mentality that we're going to line up and kick your *** rather than trying to be so tricky.
 

speedkilz88

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If they stay with the run blocking early in games then they will eventually wear out the DL and be a lot more successful in the 4th quarter. Giving up on the run early just lets the DL tee off on the pass rush.
 

viman96

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As big as our OL is, they seem more geared towards pass blocking. Guorde and Davis should be able to truck over the opposing DL opening good size holes for a RBs. Makes me wonder is they have poor footwork and or lack explosion coming out of the 3pt stance to generate the necessary leverage?
 

sonnyboy

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NextGenBoys;2840461 said:
A healthy Kosier will help, but this right here is why I dont want us to be a run oriented team.

There is nothing to suggest that our offensive line can handle it.

You can still be a pass first team, and keep defenses honest, and minimize turnovers.

That is where Marty B and Felix come in. We have so many options with Barber, Witten, Felix, and Bennett in the game.

I want a balanced attack, dont get me wrong. But I dont want us to be a run-first team. I dont think it will work.


Couldn't agree more. It just doesn't play to our strength. Any run oriented team operates that way for at least one of these three reasons. Most of the time it's two of them.

1) They have a young or poor QB they are trying to protect.
2) They have an outstanding run blocking OL.
3) They have a truely dynamic RB who absolutely commands the ball 25 times a game.

Our RB stable may qualify us on point #3, but we certainly don't qualify on point 1 or 2.

We have a great QB and very good receivers including our TE's. Should we be more balanced than we were in 2008? Of course.

But we still need to pass a little more than run. We are a passing team. A pass first team. That's our strength, that's how we best attack a defense.

Pass first, and counter with the run.
 

Alexander

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theogt;2840473 said:
Or you could argue that his statistics are incredibly subjective and completely useless given that it's impossible to know, with much level of certainty, blocking assignments.

Joyner has begun to cross that fine line from using statistics to support a point to downright foolishness.

His blog in the New York Times today suggested that Jay Cutler would remind Bears fans of Rex Grossman.
 

Monster Heel

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Is KC Joyner really trying to tell me that Andre "BLOCKING CENTER IN THE LEAGUE" Gurode is below par in a blocking category? Clearly he's doesn't know what he's talking about.

/sarcasm
 

Monster Heel

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Alexander;2840499 said:
Joyner has begun to cross that fine line from using statistics to support a point to downright foolishness.

His blog in the New York Times today suggested that Jay Cutler would remind Bears fans of Rex Grossman.

The guy is a turnover machine and Chicago doesn't have what Denver had offensively. I agree that he's probably going a bit far, but I could see him being a disappointment.
 

Alexander

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Monster Heel;2840501 said:
The guy is a turnover machine and Chicago doesn't have what Denver had offensively. I agree that he's probably going a bit far, but I could see him being a disappointment.

I don't think Cutler is the savior that Bears fans think he is either. But he's still a quality QB with maturing to do. He could very well fall short of the expectations, especially with that WR group they have.

Joyner is well within his rights to say he'll be a disappointment. That's a far cry from saying:

“I’ve said it many times and I’ll say it again — Cutler will make Bears fans remember Rex Grossman. He’ll make just as many crazy passes but won’t suffer the Grossman fate because Chicago’s fan base is so in love with him that they will forgive the nutty throws he makes in ways that they never forgave Grossman.”

If that's the case, what does he make of Romo? He makes "nutty throws" that fans forgive.

Cutler is no different from any other gunslinger who has ultimate faith in his arm (ala Favre).

That's different from a snakebitten flop like Grossman who could post a 6-20, 3 interception game at any time. Grossman was an outstanding punter for the Bears, I have a hard time thinking Cutler will do the same.
 
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