Interesting Rushing stats

[JoeKing]

So, your way of looking at it is to make no comparisons at all? This thread started out as a comparison: Running back by committee worked for the Jets, so it will work for Dallas because our backs are just as talented.

How do you prove or disprove that premise? Or do you just put blinders on and say what will be will be?

I compared the backs using what I believe to be the most accurate measure we can use, understanding that it is flawed but can still at least give us a picture of what we might can expect. It doesn't mean that's what we'll get because there are other variables at play. However, it's much more valuable to me than just saying we're just as good and closing our eyes to any evidence to the contrary.

I firmly hope McFadden can find that rare form that had him topping 5 yards a carry, that Williams can stay healthy and show he's more than a 2.8 back, that Randle's success last year wasn't the result of being the backup to a back teams had to focus on ... but I'm not going to stick my head in the sand when so much evidence shows the contrary.

I didn't state the premise so I do not defend or defeat it. I stated that the analytics is flawed and I stated how.

McFadden in Oakland is a different animal than in Dallas... Just as Demarco Murray in Philly will be a different animal than he was in Dallas. They are apples and oranges. Ignoring that fact and comparing them anyway only nets you flawed results.

 

[gimmesix]

Of course the number of carries affect the average, I'm not arguing against that point. But I do think it's fair to compare the first 20 runs of each RB on a team and average those to compare.

Not sure that would work either. It's different if your first 20 carries come in one game where you are handed the ball over and over again, while the other guys' first 20 carries come in different games against different teams and in different situations. If player B steps in after player A has worn down the defense, then the sudden change of pace and fatigue can result in that player breaking a run against a defense that's been bashed.

I would love to find a perfect measure, but I can't think of one. I've presented various ones in various threads (although I admit most of them are based on YPC, which is just as imperfect as other ways of measuring success.)

I'm not trying to paint a perfect picture with these stats, but I do believe they should give us pause in expecting much from the backs we have on staff.

The good news to me was seeing that Randle's YPC was close to Murray's without the long runs. (I thought it would be below 4.0.) However, it's impossible to determine if he could keep up that average as the lead dog getting around 100 more carries.

 

[JoeKing]

Not sure that would work either. It's different if your first 20 carries come in one game where you are handed the ball over and over again, while the other guys' first 20 carries come in different games against different teams and in different situations. If player B steps in after player A has worn down the defense, then the sudden change of pace and fatigue can result in that player breaking a run against a defense that's been bashed.

I would love to find a perfect measure, but I can't think of one. I've presented various ones in various threads (although I admit most of them are based on YPC, which is just as imperfect as other ways of measuring success.)

I'm not trying to paint a perfect picture with these stats, but I do believe they should give us pause in expecting much from the backs we have on staff.

The good news to me was seeing that Randle's YPC was close to Murray's without the long runs. (I thought it would be below 4.0.) However, it's impossible to determine if he could keep up that average as the lead dog getting around 100 more carries.

Take the first five carries from each RB for four consecutive games. Then you would have 20 carries versus equal opposition.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

New England also has Tom Brady throwing over 600 times. Not even remotely the same as our scheme. Want to look at a scheme similar to ours? Look at what the Texans did in 2011-2012 on offense.

jets, niners, Texans were top 5 in rushing. none of them made the playoffs. jets had RB by committee and had no QB or WR. niners had average play at QB. Texans in the same boat. ravens made top 10 rushing with a 30 year old RB and they don't throw 600 times.

most of the teams outside of cowboys & Seattle didn't have a work horse RB and did it by committee. they had 1000 yard rushers but the rest of their RBs got a lot of carries as well.

the fact is that you don't need a work horse RB to win. otherwise Minn would have three championships given they had a 2000 yard rusher.

and again, in the 3rd round and below did any of the RBs rate higher than what we have on the roster?

 

[gimmesix]

Take the first five carries from each RB for four consecutive games. Then you would have 20 carries versus equal opposition.

Still not the same.

For example:

Running back A comes in on the first offensive series and is handed the ball five times, including three times on first down, as the team tries to establish the run.

Running back B comes in on third-and-long and is handed the ball on a draw. The next time he comes in for his second carry is midway through the third quarter after running back A has softened up the defense.

Five carries might be all that running back B gets (if that), while running back A might get that many on the first possession alone. Then there's short-yardage carries, which running back B might not get at all or in some cases, might be all he gets.

As you said, it's difficult to find an equal measure, whether you are comparing backs on different teams by YPC or backs on the same team. That's one reason I've long been an opponent of the line of thinking that running back B is just as good as running back A because he has a similar or better YPC. Troy Hambrick is the clear example that I use because he had better averages than Emmitt Smith in 2000 (4.7 to 4.1), 2001 (5.1 to 3.9) and 2002 (4.0 to 3.8). However, when he was given the starting gig full time with defenses no longer having to focus on Smith, he averaged 3.5 and was gone the next year.

 

[gimmesix]

and again, in the 3rd round and below did any of the RBs rate higher than what we have on the roster?

At this point, we don't know. However, I feel Allen, Davis and Cobb all could be and I'd feel better if we at least had another option if the ones we have fail.

Now, at the moment, that's mitigated some by the "street" free agents out there, but there's a good possibility any who could help us will be gone by the time we determine we do need one. I'd be more apt to sign Chris Johnson now and let camp sort them out, but he'd probably be on a team already if his salary request was reasonable.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I'd be more apt to sign Chris Johnson now and let camp sort them out, but he'd probably be on a team already if his salary request was reasonable.

Johnson would be a great fall-back position.

If he averaged 4.3 YPC with the Jets, he could average 4.5 YPC with the Cowboys.

 

[gimmesix]

Johnson would be a great fall-back position.

If he averaged 4.3 YPC with the Jets, he could average 4.5 YPC with the Cowboys.

Probably, due to the better QB play if nothing else. Not sure how much better our line is run-blocking than the Jets, who appear to have done it pretty well last season.