Is Dak Prescott a legitimate MVP candidate for 2026?

Yes I think it’s possible. I wouldnt consider him one of the favorites. But a legitimate possibility, sure.

The cowboys have to make the playoffs too though. Doesn’t matter how well he plays individually. Teams gotta win too.
 
Here were the vote getters and Dak.

As you can see, there was a big gap in every category but yards and INts

QBRecordMVP VotesYardsTDsIntYPARating
Stafford12–53664,7074687.9109.2
Maye14–33614,3943188.9113.5
Allen11–6913,66825108.0102.2
Dak 7–9–104,55230107.699.5

Allen also had 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns, which voters do account for
 
If the team sucks and gives him 15 minutes of garbage time to rack up stats every week in meaningless 4th quarters, watch out!

If the team around him is good and gives him every chance he could ask for to make a playoff run..... well....watch out
 
So, the stats are in the post above. Here’s why he wasn’t even in the conversation and why he almost certainly won’t win this year unless the defense has a miracle turnaround.
  • The team failed:a QB needs 11-12 wins to have a chance. Offense was good enough to win 11 games. This was a four win defense, at best.
    • No QB has ever won MVP with less than a .688 win percentage (had to dig for that). Dak carried the team on his back to their meager win total. I don’t think any of the vote getters could have come close to 11 wins with that defense.
  • Touchdowns: Stafford blew everyone away with 46 passing touchdowns. You really need 35+ TDs. 40 TDs almost always wins an MVP
  • Yards Per Attempt: Maye’s YPA (8.9 YPA) kept him close to Stafford despite the TD gap. This is a stat that matters to voters but lots of fans don’t watch. You can blame Terd Feeguson for Dak’s low number here. I asked Claude to recalculate Dak’s YPA without Ferg and his number shot up to 7.9, the same as Allen.
 
Last edited:
Of course he is, however like anyone else he must remain healthy and win when it matters. He has to be a champion on some level.
 
MVP’s 3 major criteria:

1. Team success: MVP is a team award first and foremost. No one has ever won MVP by missing the playoffs. Heck, Stafford is only the third QB ever to win the award without winning his division.

2. Narrative: Is the season a triumph for the player individually? Did he have a story of perseverance he was overcoming, or did he have his best season that led to the team’s success? Was the team way better than they were in previous years because of his breakout performance?

3. Statistical factor: did he have gaudy stats no other QB was matching that made him undeniable?

It’s just a matter of if his criteria outweighs the other QBs (which a lot of it is out of his control. If the defense sucks again he can’t win. If Pickens and/or Lamb have major injuries he may not be able to win. If Lamar has a 50 TD season there is little Dak can do). Beyond that, he absolutely can be a contender, as he has been before.
 
Johannes44 said:
How many tokens did you burn through doing that?
Click to expand...
Oh, it was a lot. Making it do all that heavy lifting on Terds meager 3.2 yards and fall down season strained the budget.

I am going to have cut back on my project of having it cross reference Star Trek, Space 1999 and Doctor Who cultural impacts that I was going to post in the off topic zone later today
 
During the Super Bowl era, teams with Most Valuable Player quarterbacks have reached the playoffs at a 98% clip--with the 1967 Baltimore Colts with Johnny Unitas being the lone exception. Below is the team with QB MVP playoff success rate, along with individual season finishes (click here for complete AP NFL MVP List):

NoCategoryRate
15​
Lost Super Bowl
33%​
12​
Lost Divisional Round
26%​
10​
Lost Conference Championship
22%​
7​
Won Super Bowl
15%​
1​
Lost Wild Card
2%​
1​
No Playoffs
2%​

YearQuarterbackTeamSeason Finish
2011Aaron RodgersGreen Bay PackersLost Divisional Round 20-37 vs. New York Giants
2014Aaron RodgersGreen Bay PackersLost Divisional Round 20-37 vs. New York Giants
2020Aaron RodgersGreen Bay PackersLost Divisional Round 20-37 vs. New York Giants
2021Aaron RodgersGreen Bay PackersLost Divisional Round 10-13 vs. San Francisco 49ers
1966Bart StarrGreen Bay PackersWon Super Bowl 35-10 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
1976Bert JonesBaltimore ColtsLost Divisional Round 14-40 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
1988Boomer EsiasonCincinnati BengalsLost Super Bowl 16-20 vs. San Francisco 49ers
1995Brett FavreGreen Bay PackersLost Conference Championship 27-38 vs. Dallas Cowboys
1996Brett FavreGreen Bay PackersWon Super Bowl 35-21 vs. New England Patriots
1997Brett FavreGreen Bay PackersLost Super Bowl 24-31 vs. Denver Broncos
1980Brian SipeCleveland BrownsLost Divisional Round 12-14 vs. Oakland Raiders
2015Cam NewtonCarolina PanthersLost Super Bowl 10-24 vs. Denver Broncos
1984Dan MarinoMiami DolphinsLost Conference Championship 27-31 vs. Seattle Seahawks
1968Earl MorrallBaltimore ColtsLost Super Bowl 7-16 vs. New York Jets
1975Fran TarkentonMinnesota VikingsLost Divisional Round 14-17 vs. Dallas Cowboys
1989Joe MontanaSan Francisco 49ersWon Super Bowl 55-10 vs. Denver Broncos
1990Joe MontanaSan Francisco 49ersWon Super Bowl 55-10 vs. Denver Broncos
1983Joe TheismannWashington CommandersLost Super Bowl 17-20 vs. New England Patriots
1970John BrodieSan Francisco 49ersLost Conference Championship 10-17 vs. Dallas Cowboys
1987John ElwayDenver BroncosLost Super Bowl 10-42 vs. Washington Commanders
1967Johnny UnitasBaltimore Colts1st in NFL Coastal Division (no playoffs)
2024Josh AllenBuffalo BillsLost Conference Championship 29-32 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
1981Ken AndersonCincinnati BengalsLost Super Bowl 21-26 vs. San Francisco 49ers
1974Ken StablerOakland RaidersLost Super Bowl 33-41 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
1999Kurt WarnerSt. Louis RamsWon Super Bowl 23-16 vs. Tennessee Titans
2001Kurt WarnerSt. Louis RamsLost Super Bowl 17-20 vs. New England Patriots
2019Lamar JacksonBaltimore RavensLost Divisional Round 12-28 vs. Tennessee Titans
2023Lamar JacksonBaltimore RavensLost Conference Championship 10-17 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
2016Matt RyanAtlanta FalconsLost Super Bowl 28-34 vs. New England Patriots
2025Matthew StaffordLos Angeles RamsLost Conference Championship 27-31 vs. Seattle Seahawks
2018Patrick MahomesKansas City ChiefsLost Conference Championship 31-37 vs. New England Patriots
2022Patrick MahomesKansas City ChiefsWon Super Bowl 38-35 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
2003Peyton ManningIndianapolis ColtsLost Conference Championship 14-24 vs. New England Patriots
2004Peyton ManningIndianapolis ColtsLost Divisional Round 3-20 vs. New England Patriots
2008Peyton ManningIndianapolis ColtsLost Wild Card 17-23 vs. San Diego Chargers
2009Peyton ManningIndianapolis ColtsLost Super Bowl 17-31 vs. New Orleans Saints
2013Peyton ManningDenver BroncosLost Super Bowl 8-43 vs. Seattle Seahawks
2002Rich GannonOakland RaidersLost Super Bowl 21-48 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1969Roman GabrielLos Angeles RamsLost Divisional Round 20-23 vs. Minnesota Vikings
2003Steve McNairTennessee TitansLost Super Bowl 17-20 vs. New England Patriots
1992Steve YoungSan Francisco 49ersLost Conference Championship 20-30 vs. Dallas Cowboys
1994Steve YoungSan Francisco 49ersLost Conference Championship 20-30 vs. Dallas Cowboys
1978Terry BradshawPittsburgh SteelersWon Super Bowl 35-31 vs. Dallas Cowboys
2007Tom BradyNew England PatriotsLost Divisional Round 14-17 vs. Dallas Cowboys
2010Tom BradyNew England PatriotsLost Divisional Round 21-28 vs. New York Jets
2017Tom BradyNew England PatriotsLost Super Bowl 33-41 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Staff online

Members online

... and 90 more.
Total: 11,641 (members: 190, guests: 11,451)
Robots: 1,140

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
474,524
Messages
14,542,691
Members
24,212
Latest member
JerryJonesSupporter
Back
Top