Is the 49ers defense overrated?

[Jumbo075]

I don't have a crystal ball to predict the future. But you can get a lot of predictions about the future pretty close by observing the past. I just finished watching a podcast online where the "experts" were talking about the betting line on the Cowboys, and how the Sports books think the Cowboys are a lot closer to the 49ers than a lot of the pundits think they are. Currently, the most bets are on the 49ers, but the majority of the money is on the Cowboys. The professional bettors are apparently favoring the Cowboys to at least cover the 3-1/2 point spread, if not win outright.

And there has to be a reason...

This goes back to a post I previously made about how the 49ers reputation may be built on an illusion of having a super powerful defense. Yes, they only play other professional teams, and every team in the NFL has super talented athletes. But some teams are more talented than others, and building a reputation of having an overpowering defense on the backs of winning a bunch of games against really poor opponents is a little suspicious. So, let's take a quick look at who the 49ers have played.

The Bottom 10 teams in the NFL (by final regular season record) are:

• 3-14 Bears
• 3-13-1 Texans
• 4-13 Cardinals
• 4-12-1 Colts
• 5-12 Broncos
• 5-12 Rams
• 6-11 Raiders
• 7-10 Falcons
• 7-10 Saints

The Cowboys played 4 games against these teams bottom feeders (Bears, Texans, Colts and Rams) going 4-0 in those games. By comparison, the 49ers played 10 of their 17 games against these bottom feeders - almost 59% of their games. The Cowboys may have had a scare against the Texans, but the 49ers lost 3 of these 10 games to the Bears, Broncos and Falcons.

The top 10 teams in the NFL (by final regular season record) are:

• 14-3 Eagles
• 14-3 Chiefs
• 13-3 Bills
• 13-4 49ers
• 13-4 Vikings
• 12-4 Bengals
• 12-5 Cowboys
• 10-7 Ravens
• 10-7 Chargers
• 9-7-1 Giants

The 49ers played only two of these teams, and both games were home games for San Francisco. They barely won by less than a touchdown against the Chargers, and got blown out by 3 touchdowns against the explosive offense of the Chiefs. So much for their vaunted defensive prowess when playing against a team with a legitimate offense. Meanwhile the the Cowboys played 6 games against these top 10 NFL teams, playing 3 at home and 3 on the road. The Cowboys record against the top teams in the NFL was a stellar 5-1, the best in the NFL.

I'm not suggesting that the 49ers shouldn't be taken seriously. They are a good team. Also, the 49ers of the 80's, and the Patriots of the last 20 years made a regular season habit of beating up on bad teams, and still established dynasties. So, it is important not to overlook San Francisco. But it is equally important for the Cowboys team to look at their own talent and ability, and have confidence they have the ability to win.

The 49ers are the current sexy pick to win the Super Bowl. And they might even do it, and overcome the almost 60 year history of no rookie QB leading his team to even play in the Super Bowl, much less win it. But I wouldn't bet on it, and wouldn't recommend anyone else do it either. Next season, when the 49ers are playing a 1st place schedule instead of a 3rd place schedule, and when they play the NFC East, which has 3 of the top 8 remaining teams in the NFL this year, we'll see if they can still match up. In the meantime, be prepared for a high chance that the Cowboys get revenge for the playoff loss at home last year by beating the 49ers tomorrow night.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

No. Next question.

 

[KJJ]

If you’re ranked statistically as number one overall you’re not overrated. Statistical rankings aren’t an opinion they’re a fact. San Francisco has a a very solid defense, despite some fans attempting to downplay it.

 

[NFCBeasts]

Dumb post

Is our offense overrated based on some of the easy matchups ? See how it works both ways …

 

[Tabascocat]

No

 

[erod]

Not in the least.

 

[big dog cowboy]

 

[Bobhaze]

I don't have a crystal ball to predict the future. But you can get a lot of predictions about the future pretty close by observing the past. I just finished watching a podcast online where the "experts" were talking about the betting line on the Cowboys, and how the Sports books think the Cowboys are a lot closer to the 49ers than a lot of the pundits think they are. Currently, the most bets are on the 49ers, but the majority of the money is on the Cowboys. The professional bettors are apparently favoring the Cowboys to at least cover the 3-1/2 point spread, if not win outright.

And there has to be a reason...

This goes back to a post I previously made about how the 49ers reputation may be built on an illusion of having a super powerful defense. Yes, they only play other professional teams, and every team in the NFL has super talented athletes. But some teams are more talented than others, and building a reputation of having an overpowering defense on the backs of winning a bunch of games against really poor opponents is a little suspicious. So, let's take a quick look at who the 49ers have played.

The Bottom 10 teams in the NFL (by final regular season record) are:

• 3-14 Bears
• 3-13-1 Texans
• 4-13 Cardinals
• 4-12-1 Colts
• 5-12 Broncos
• 5-12 Rams
• 6-11 Raiders
• 7-10 Falcons
• 7-10 Saints

The Cowboys played 4 games against these teams bottom feeders (Bears, Texans, Colts and Rams) going 4-0 in those games. By comparison, the 49ers played 10 of their 17 games against these bottom feeders - almost 59% of their games. The Cowboys may have had a scare against the Texans, but the 49ers lost 3 of these 10 games to the Bears, Broncos and Falcons.

The top 10 teams in the NFL (by final regular season record) are:

• 14-3 Eagles
• 14-3 Chiefs
• 13-3 Bills
• 13-4 49ers
• 13-4 Vikings
• 12-4 Bengals
• 12-5 Cowboys
• 10-7 Ravens
• 10-7 Chargers
• 9-7-1 Giants

The 49ers played only two of these teams, and both games were home games for San Francisco. They barely won by less than a touchdown against the Chargers, and got blown out by 3 touchdowns against the explosive offense of the Chiefs. So much for their vaunted defensive prowess when playing against a team with a legitimate offense. Meanwhile the the Cowboys played 6 games against these top 10 NFL teams, playing 3 at home and 3 on the road. The Cowboys record against the top teams in the NFL was a stellar 5-1, the best in the NFL.

I'm not suggesting that the 49ers shouldn't be taken seriously. They are a good team. Also, the 49ers of the 80's, and the Patriots of the last 20 years made a regular season habit of beating up on bad teams, and still established dynasties. So, it is important not to overlook San Francisco. But it is equally important for the Cowboys team to look at their own talent and ability, and have confidence they have the ability to win.

The 49ers are the current sexy pick to win the Super Bowl. And they might even do it, and overcome the almost 60 year history of no rookie QB leading his team to even play in the Super Bowl, much less win it. But I wouldn't bet on it, and wouldn't recommend anyone else do it either. Next season, when the 49ers are playing a 1st place schedule instead of a 3rd place schedule, and when they play the NFC East, which has 3 of the top 8 remaining teams in the NFL this year, we'll see if they can still match up. In the meantime, be prepared for a high chance that the Cowboys get revenge for the playoff loss at home last year by beating the 49ers tomorrow night.

No, I don’t think the niners D is overrated. Do I think they’re beatable? Yes.

Jumbo you’ve done some good work here but I disagree with the idea that you can compare common opponents and draw strong conclusions. Sometimes you can, but it depends on when you play someone. For example, the niners lost to the falcons early in the season before they acquired Christian McCaffrey. At that time, they were 3-3. After that trade, they were 10-1. So when losses happen matter as much as the teams that beat them IMO.

 

[dcstar]

No

Go Cowboys!

 

[agk136]

YES!

Go Cowboys!

 

[Kevinicus]

No, I don’t think the niners D is overrated. Do I think they’re beatable? Yes.

Jumbo you’ve done some good work here but I disagree with the idea that you can compare common opponents and draw strong conclusions. Sometimes you can, but it depends on when you play someone. For example, the niners lost to the falcons early in the season before they acquired Christian McCaffrey. At that time, they were 3-3. After that trade, they were 10-1. So when losses happen matter as much as the teams that beat them IMO.

It's not common opponents, it's quality of opponents.

 

[cowboys5xsbs]

Even if they are a good defense not playing quality competition doesn't prepare you for when you have to play a good offense.

 

[cowboys5xsbs]

Also I find it funny how we were the overrated offense and defense last year doing the same exact thing but now people want to give SF the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Diehardblues]

Maybe it’s wagers like these that are ballooning the money on the Cowboys.

But I’m not surprised in a fairly evenly matched game that the bigger money isn’t taking the points.

Betting the NFL is extremely difficult . Even the best handicappers can only pick about 60% against the spread.

It’s all about betting bigger on your wins. If you bet evenly across the board( meaning the same amount in each game or bet) you end up barely breaking even after paying 10% juice.

 

[Cowboy_svt]

If you’re ranked statistically as number one overall you’re not overrated. Statistical rankings aren’t an opinion they’re a fact. San Francisco has a a very solid defense, despite some fans attempting to downplay it.

Was our offense last year overrated despite being #1?
I think theyre good and helped by an easier schedule, both can be true, but i do think theres a some similarities between them and us last year as #1s.

 

[DanA]

Maybe the stats on the 49ers are slightly skewed by opponents faced but I actually suspect that is off-set and then some if you separated pre and post McCaffrey

Regardless, I think it’s an interesting matchup with some really intriguing battles where I’m not sure who this matchup stylistically favors.

 

[DanA]

Maybe it’s wagers like these that are ballooning the money on the Cowboys.

But I’m not surprised in a fairly evenly matched game that the bigger money isn’t taking the points.

Betting the NFL is extremely difficult . Even the best handicappers can only pick about 60% against the spread.

It’s all about betting bigger on your wins. If you bet evenly across the board( meaning the same amount in each game or bet) you end up barely breaking even after paying 10% juice.

Fair to say also that wagers skew Cowboys way in general because of the large fan base.

 

[TheHerd]

No. Elite linebackers, best pass rusher in the NFL and solid DTs. Great tackling team. They aren’t number 1 by a fluke.

 

[NumOneQB]

Nope

 

[MRV52]

Raiders put 500 yards on their prolific D let that sink in!!!