Is the 49ers defense overrated?

[Diehardblues]

Fair to say also that wagers skew Cowboys way in general because of the large fan base.

Yea but the numbers say there’s more bets in quantity on SF but more money on Dallas.

And why I shared the pic of Mattress Mack.

 

[ejwilson1984]

You can’t really run on them . The most they’ve given up to a RB this year is 60 yards twice. Even though we gave up 100 yards to like 4-5 RBs, we played more difficult RBs. We played 7 games vs the top 10 rushers. They played 1.

Their pass rush is probably 2nd best next to philly. But Their pass D is very very questionable. If Dak can get time, that is how we win.

 

[bigdnlaca]

Good Dline and linebackers but you can pass against them if given the time.

 

[xwalker]

I don't have a crystal ball to predict the future. But you can get a lot of predictions about the future pretty close by observing the past. I just finished watching a podcast online where the "experts" were talking about the betting line on the Cowboys, and how the Sports books think the Cowboys are a lot closer to the 49ers than a lot of the pundits think they are. Currently, the most bets are on the 49ers, but the majority of the money is on the Cowboys. The professional bettors are apparently favoring the Cowboys to at least cover the 3-1/2 point spread, if not win outright.

And there has to be a reason...

This goes back to a post I previously made about how the 49ers reputation may be built on an illusion of having a super powerful defense. Yes, they only play other professional teams, and every team in the NFL has super talented athletes. But some teams are more talented than others, and building a reputation of having an overpowering defense on the backs of winning a bunch of games against really poor opponents is a little suspicious. So, let's take a quick look at who the 49ers have played.

The Bottom 10 teams in the NFL (by final regular season record) are:

• 3-14 Bears
• 3-13-1 Texans
• 4-13 Cardinals
• 4-12-1 Colts
• 5-12 Broncos
• 5-12 Rams
• 6-11 Raiders
• 7-10 Falcons
• 7-10 Saints

The Cowboys played 4 games against these teams bottom feeders (Bears, Texans, Colts and Rams) going 4-0 in those games. By comparison, the 49ers played 10 of their 17 games against these bottom feeders - almost 59% of their games. The Cowboys may have had a scare against the Texans, but the 49ers lost 3 of these 10 games to the Bears, Broncos and Falcons.

The top 10 teams in the NFL (by final regular season record) are:

• 14-3 Eagles
• 14-3 Chiefs
• 13-3 Bills
• 13-4 49ers
• 13-4 Vikings
• 12-4 Bengals
• 12-5 Cowboys
• 10-7 Ravens
• 10-7 Chargers
• 9-7-1 Giants

The 49ers played only two of these teams, and both games were home games for San Francisco. They barely won by less than a touchdown against the Chargers, and got blown out by 3 touchdowns against the explosive offense of the Chiefs. So much for their vaunted defensive prowess when playing against a team with a legitimate offense. Meanwhile the the Cowboys played 6 games against these top 10 NFL teams, playing 3 at home and 3 on the road. The Cowboys record against the top teams in the NFL was a stellar 5-1, the best in the NFL.

I'm not suggesting that the 49ers shouldn't be taken seriously. They are a good team. Also, the 49ers of the 80's, and the Patriots of the last 20 years made a regular season habit of beating up on bad teams, and still established dynasties. So, it is important not to overlook San Francisco. But it is equally important for the Cowboys team to look at their own talent and ability, and have confidence they have the ability to win.

The 49ers are the current sexy pick to win the Super Bowl. And they might even do it, and overcome the almost 60 year history of no rookie QB leading his team to even play in the Super Bowl, much less win it. But I wouldn't bet on it, and wouldn't recommend anyone else do it either. Next season, when the 49ers are playing a 1st place schedule instead of a 3rd place schedule, and when they play the NFC East, which has 3 of the top 8 remaining teams in the NFL this year, we'll see if they can still match up. In the meantime, be prepared for a high chance that the Cowboys get revenge for the playoff loss at home last year by beating the 49ers tomorrow night.

Beatable: Yes

Overrated: No.

They're stronger vs the run than the pass; although, they're tied for #1 in INTs.

It stands to reason that they would be most challenged by top rated passing offenses that can win even if you shut down their run game.

KC's offense is #1 in passing. Yards, Yards/Attempt, Passing 1st downs...

Charges were 3rd in passing yards and 3rd in passing 1st downs in 2022. Bottom 4 in rushing yards (total and per attempt).

 

[kramskoi]

No. But...45% of their sacks came from Bosa this year. Armstead had ZERO sacks in the regular season, even though he did have one against Seattle last week. Watching some 49er content creators, they don't seem to think the team has been really dominant on the defensive side for over a month. Armstead is one of their gripes. The secondary can be had but their front seven is excellent. Stop Bosa, or at least contain him, and the job gets easier. The two Smiths are really going to be tested in this game. How well they do will determine how well the Dallas offense can go.

 

[Donnie49inSF]

Raiders put 500 yards on their prolific D let that sink in!!!

Raiders put up big numbers that day. Might be reaching but...Maybe the Niners D wasn't up for the game since it was on New Years day in Las Vegas. I'm sure some guys were partying. They had also found out earlier that week that Carr was benched and they'd be facing Stidham. I dunno. I will say that they've been giving up more yds via air and ground last few games.

 

[DanA]

Beatable: Yes

Overrated: No.

They're stronger vs the run than the pass; although, they're tied for #1 in INTs.

It stands to reason that they would be most challenged by top rated passing offenses that can win even if you shut down their run game.

KC's offense is #1 in passing. Yards, Yards/Attempt, Passing 1st downs...

Charges were 3rd in passing yards and 3rd in passing 1st downs in 2022. Bottom 4 in rushing yards (total and per attempt).

More than just the stats though, it’s the type of offense the Chiefs run. The 49ers are particularly weak at covering slot recievers and TE’s. The Chiefs have Kelce and JuJu who put up over 200 yards combined. Hopefully we can replicate that with Shultz and Lamb.

They also obviously have a good O-line and the best QB who is still dangerous when flushed out of the pocket. Dak and our o-line are well above average in these areas but not as consistent IMO.

 

[kskboys]

Overrated, no. Beatable, yes.

 

[MizzouCowboy4]

I hate Philly coach. Punchable

 

[DanA]

Also interesting is that the 49ers D-line are very long but not particularly big. Kind of like us but longer.

• 3T: Armstead is 290lbs
• 1T: Kinlaw is 320lbs
• LDE: Ebukham is 245lbs
• RDE: Bosa is 265lbs
• LB: Greenlaw and Warner both around 230lbs

 

[Jumbo075]

I appreciate the responses.

Note to the pedants: Questioning if the pundits are overrating the Niners' defense is NOT the same thing as questioning if they have a good defense. Of course they have a good defense, and I don't deny that at all. I just think they've been practically coronated by the pundit class, and the media would love to spend the off season worshiping at the feet of a rookie QB who wins the Super Bowl. I just don't believe they are quite as good as they are being represented by the media.

The 49ers stats are not quite the equivalent of the Alabama Crimson tide running up the score on the football team from Middle Valley Community College, but let's look at their current 11 game winning streak, since being blown out by the Chiefs:

• October 30th - they beat the lowly Rams, who ended the year 5-12, and tied for the 5th worst record in the NFL
• November 13th - coming off a bye week, playing at home against a team that had to travel back 3000 miles from a game the week before, and then travel again to the Bay area, they trailed after the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters. Despite having the ball almost 17 minutes more than the Chargers, they limped to a win by kicking 3 field goals in the 4th quarter.
• November 21 - They destroyed a Cardinals team that ended the year with the 3rd worst record in the NFL. Impressive!
• November 27 - The 49ers squeezed out a win at home, 13-0, over a team that had Andy Dalton starting at QB for the Saints - a team tied with 6 other teams for the 8th worst record in the NFL. I remember how good Dalton was in Dallas when Dak got injured. Nuff said.
• December 4 - This seemed like an impressive win against the Dolphins at the time. But the Dolphins lost 5 of their last 6 games, as they limped into the playoffs.
• December 11 - The Buccaneers have the distinction of being only the 2nd team in the Super Bowl era to win their division with a losing record, joining the 2010 Seahawks. The 49ers blew out the Bucs by about the same amount as the Cowboys did last week, with both teams scoring 5 touchdowns.
• December 15 - Like the 49ers, the Seahawks got to pad their stats against many of the same teams the 49ers played. So, I'm not sure if beating the Seahawks counts as being impressive, unless you are a big believer in Geno Smith.
• December 24 - the 49ers beat the ONLY team in the NFC East to not make the playoffs - the putridly renamed Commies, er I mean Commanders.
• January 1 - the Raiders, a perpetually bad team that had the 7th worst record in the NFL, took the 49ers to overtime.
• January 8 - The 49ers end the season win a rematch against the NFL 3rd worst Cardinals, who fired everyone at the end of the season. And I mean everyone!
• January 14 - The 49ers were rewarded for beating up this skid row of teams by playing the Seahawks again in the playoffs. The Seahawks, who only managed to win 9 games against the same lineup of team predictably lost to the 49ers for a 3rd time this season.

Please show me the 49ers signature win in this series of games. Even what seemed like a signature win at the time against the 8-3 Dolphins has been undermined by the fact that the Dolphins lost 5 games in a row, and then barely got into the playoffs in the last game of the year by overpowering the QB-less Jets by an overwhelming score of 11-6. Wow!

The 49ers don't get to choose their schedule, and they are obviously a good team - especially after the trade for McCaffrey. But can we please stop with the over-the-top praise of a team the crucified a bunch of also-rans in the NFL this year.

Bottom Line: If the 49ers beat the Cowboys this Sunday night, it will be their first and ONLY signature win of the 2022 NFL football season. In their only other signature matchup, they got pummeled 44-23 by the Chiefs - hardly impressive.

 

[Jumbo075]

Psssssssssssst. I'll tell you a secret if you promise not to tell anyone else. I think many Cowboys fans have grown accustomed to being losers, and have a hard time believing that this team might be different. Just between me and you, I think they need to grow a pair - Jimmy Johnson style - and start believing in their team.

Yeah. I said it.

 

[tyke1doe]

We'll see tomorrow.

 

[stiletto]

Only in HOMER-LAND are they overrated...

 

[Jumbo075]

Only in HOMER-LAND are they overrated...

That's right. Just ignore the extensive amount of research that was done to justify the posts I made and all the evidence that was shared. I'm just a homer. I'm sure that you learned the best way to argue is to call the other guy names. Don't bother refuting the evidence provided. Just call names. That's the ticket.

 

[Aven8]

No. Next question.

This

 

[leicafan]

No. But they are declining.

 

[stiletto]

That's right. Just ignore the extensive amount of research that was done to justify the posts I made and all the evidence that was shared. I'm just a homer. I'm sure that you learned the best way to argue is to call the other guy names. Don't bother refuting the evidence provided. Just call names. That's the ticket.

Woah...touched a nerve or somethin. I was gonna say I don't know who you are and what you have posted but realized you're the OP (sue me)..sorry brother... go on. Wave the pom-poms.

 

[Jumbo075]

Woah...touched a nerve or somethin. I was gonna say I don't know who you are and what you have posted but realized you're the OP (sue me)..sorry brother... go on. Wave the pom-poms.

I think calling someone a homer in a sports forum is just about the laziest and most worthless thing someone can do. I have zero respect for that. It's a waste of time to have conversations with such a person, as their ultimate go-to argument is ad hominem attacks on others. It's the most obvious tell that someone is cognitively challenged and makes up for their lack of imagination by waving their manhood (no matter how insignificant it may be) around for all to see while they attempt to bully others into shutting up. When others inevitably get tired of communicating with them, they declare victory - mistaking indifference and disgust for surrender.

 

[stiletto]

I think calling someone a homer in a sports forum is just about the laziest and most worthless thing someone can do. I have zero respect for that. It's a waste of time to have conversations with such a person, as their ultimate go-to argument is ad hominem attacks on others. It's the most obvious tell that someone is cognitively challenged and makes up for their lack of imagination by waving their manhood (no matter how insignificant it may be) around for all to see while they attempt to bully others into shutting up. When others inevitably get tired of communicating with them, they declare victory - mistaking indifference and disgust for surrender.

No offense but ultimately at the end of the day, it is about being RIGHT... I don't like living in hopes and prayer land. Gotta look at the facts. The Cowboys have been a rollar coaster all year, absolutely not a team of consistency. The 49ers have been blowing teams away for 11+ weeks. These are facts SKIP.. It's not lazy understanding and thinking in realistic terms. You are mad because those spins don't go your way so you justify it as being bullied. A lot of that going on these days....