Is the 49ers defense overrated?

[ThatJerryKid]

I don't have a crystal ball to predict the future. But you can get a lot of predictions about the future pretty close by observing the past. I just finished watching a podcast online where the "experts" were talking about the betting line on the Cowboys, and how the Sports books think the Cowboys are a lot closer to the 49ers than a lot of the pundits think they are. Currently, the most bets are on the 49ers, but the majority of the money is on the Cowboys. The professional bettors are apparently favoring the Cowboys to at least cover the 3-1/2 point spread, if not win outright.

And there has to be a reason...

This goes back to a post I previously made about how the 49ers reputation may be built on an illusion of having a super powerful defense. Yes, they only play other professional teams, and every team in the NFL has super talented athletes. But some teams are more talented than others, and building a reputation of having an overpowering defense on the backs of winning a bunch of games against really poor opponents is a little suspicious. So, let's take a quick look at who the 49ers have played.

The Bottom 10 teams in the NFL (by final regular season record) are:

• 3-14 Bears
• 3-13-1 Texans
• 4-13 Cardinals
• 4-12-1 Colts
• 5-12 Broncos
• 5-12 Rams
• 6-11 Raiders
• 7-10 Falcons
• 7-10 Saints

The Cowboys played 4 games against these teams bottom feeders (Bears, Texans, Colts and Rams) going 4-0 in those games. By comparison, the 49ers played 10 of their 17 games against these bottom feeders - almost 59% of their games. The Cowboys may have had a scare against the Texans, but the 49ers lost 3 of these 10 games to the Bears, Broncos and Falcons.

The top 10 teams in the NFL (by final regular season record) are:

• 14-3 Eagles
• 14-3 Chiefs
• 13-3 Bills
• 13-4 49ers
• 13-4 Vikings
• 12-4 Bengals
• 12-5 Cowboys
• 10-7 Ravens
• 10-7 Chargers
• 9-7-1 Giants

The 49ers played only two of these teams, and both games were home games for San Francisco. They barely won by less than a touchdown against the Chargers, and got blown out by 3 touchdowns against the explosive offense of the Chiefs. So much for their vaunted defensive prowess when playing against a team with a legitimate offense. Meanwhile the the Cowboys played 6 games against these top 10 NFL teams, playing 3 at home and 3 on the road. The Cowboys record against the top teams in the NFL was a stellar 5-1, the best in the NFL.

I'm not suggesting that the 49ers shouldn't be taken seriously. They are a good team. Also, the 49ers of the 80's, and the Patriots of the last 20 years made a regular season habit of beating up on bad teams, and still established dynasties. So, it is important not to overlook San Francisco. But it is equally important for the Cowboys team to look at their own talent and ability, and have confidence they have the ability to win.

The 49ers are the current sexy pick to win the Super Bowl. And they might even do it, and overcome the almost 60 year history of no rookie QB leading his team to even play in the Super Bowl, much less win it. But I wouldn't bet on it, and wouldn't recommend anyone else do it either. Next season, when the 49ers are playing a 1st place schedule instead of a 3rd place schedule, and when they play the NFC East, which has 3 of the top 8 remaining teams in the NFL this year, we'll see if they can still match up. In the meantime, be prepared for a high chance that the Cowboys get revenge for the playoff loss at home last year by beating the 49ers tomorrow night.

Don’t pay attention to some of the idiotic responses you’re going to get. This was a very interesting post and well researched. I enjoyed it. Thanks!!

 

[Creeper]

It is subjective. I think it has been overhyped a bit. It is a good defense but it is as good as everyone seems to think? I don't think so. They have played a very weak schedule with not many good offenses. But I think they are good enough to win a Super Bowl.

This game depends on how Dak plays. If he plays like he did against the Commanders, the 49ers defense will look like the 85 Bears.

 

[blueblood70]

Dumb post

Is our offense overrated based on some of the easy matchups ? See how it works both ways …

its not dumb , jeez

that opponents record has merit to question them, but my answer is no not overrated but not as scary or dominate as it looks because they haven't played a team like us since KC and they lost that game..i realize they were missing players but all year, so have we in much tougher division and much tougher schedule. we saw the raiders game and Seattle hanging with them for 3 qtrs , we are better than both those teams.

 

[blueblood70]

Raiders put 500 yards on their prolific D let that sink in!!!

with Stidham

 

[texbumthelife]

I don't have a crystal ball to predict the future. But you can get a lot of predictions about the future pretty close by observing the past. I just finished watching a podcast online where the "experts" were talking about the betting line on the Cowboys, and how the Sports books think the Cowboys are a lot closer to the 49ers than a lot of the pundits think they are. Currently, the most bets are on the 49ers, but the majority of the money is on the Cowboys. The professional bettors are apparently favoring the Cowboys to at least cover the 3-1/2 point spread, if not win outright.

And there has to be a reason...

This goes back to a post I previously made about how the 49ers reputation may be built on an illusion of having a super powerful defense. Yes, they only play other professional teams, and every team in the NFL has super talented athletes. But some teams are more talented than others, and building a reputation of having an overpowering defense on the backs of winning a bunch of games against really poor opponents is a little suspicious. So, let's take a quick look at who the 49ers have played.

The Bottom 10 teams in the NFL (by final regular season record) are:

• 3-14 Bears
• 3-13-1 Texans
• 4-13 Cardinals
• 4-12-1 Colts
• 5-12 Broncos
• 5-12 Rams
• 6-11 Raiders
• 7-10 Falcons
• 7-10 Saints

The Cowboys played 4 games against these teams bottom feeders (Bears, Texans, Colts and Rams) going 4-0 in those games. By comparison, the 49ers played 10 of their 17 games against these bottom feeders - almost 59% of their games. The Cowboys may have had a scare against the Texans, but the 49ers lost 3 of these 10 games to the Bears, Broncos and Falcons.

The top 10 teams in the NFL (by final regular season record) are:

• 14-3 Eagles
• 14-3 Chiefs
• 13-3 Bills
• 13-4 49ers
• 13-4 Vikings
• 12-4 Bengals
• 12-5 Cowboys
• 10-7 Ravens
• 10-7 Chargers
• 9-7-1 Giants

The 49ers played only two of these teams, and both games were home games for San Francisco. They barely won by less than a touchdown against the Chargers, and got blown out by 3 touchdowns against the explosive offense of the Chiefs. So much for their vaunted defensive prowess when playing against a team with a legitimate offense. Meanwhile the the Cowboys played 6 games against these top 10 NFL teams, playing 3 at home and 3 on the road. The Cowboys record against the top teams in the NFL was a stellar 5-1, the best in the NFL.

I'm not suggesting that the 49ers shouldn't be taken seriously. They are a good team. Also, the 49ers of the 80's, and the Patriots of the last 20 years made a regular season habit of beating up on bad teams, and still established dynasties. So, it is important not to overlook San Francisco. But it is equally important for the Cowboys team to look at their own talent and ability, and have confidence they have the ability to win.

The 49ers are the current sexy pick to win the Super Bowl. And they might even do it, and overcome the almost 60 year history of no rookie QB leading his team to even play in the Super Bowl, much less win it. But I wouldn't bet on it, and wouldn't recommend anyone else do it either. Next season, when the 49ers are playing a 1st place schedule instead of a 3rd place schedule, and when they play the NFC East, which has 3 of the top 8 remaining teams in the NFL this year, we'll see if they can still match up. In the meantime, be prepared for a high chance that the Cowboys get revenge for the playoff loss at home last year by beating the 49ers tomorrow night.

This is legitimately one of the best posts on this forum in a while not made by Risen.

Cheers, mate.

 

[NFCBeasts]

its not dumb , jeez

that opponents record has merit to question them, but my answer is no not overrated but not as scary or dominate as it looks because they haven't played a team like us since KC and they lost that game..i realize they were missing players but all year, so have we in much tougher division and much tougher schedule. we saw the raiders game and Seattle hanging with them for 3 qtrs , we are better than both those teams.

We may be better but that doesn’t mean the niners defense is overrated… look at the names in their roster alone.

 

[KMY_Amber]

Nope

 

[MikeT22]

Philly will beat them.

 

[16to87Money]

Next up.. Philly will get maybe 9 points next week, so at least you guys can take solace in that.

 

[Mankster]

So...looks like the Niners actually are a good team. Better than the Cowboys. There..said it. Now they will take the lessons learned today an go beat Philly next week.

 

[Motorola]

No, I don’t think the niners D is overrated. Do I think they’re beatable? Yes.

Jumbo you’ve done some good work here but I disagree with the idea that you can compare common opponents and draw strong conclusions. Sometimes you can, but it depends on when you play someone. For example, the niners lost to the falcons early in the season before they acquired Christian McCaffrey. At that time, they were 3-3. After that trade, they were 10-1. So when losses happen matter as much as the teams that beat them IMO.

The loss to Atlanta was about San Francisco missing key players due to injury and committing turnovers.
Nick Bosa was out; CB Charvarius Ward and OT Mike Mcglinchey suffered injuries in the 1st half and didn't return, WR McCloud III and S Hufunga missed some game due to possible concussions.
Garoppolo threw 2 picks and WR Neff Wilson lost a fumble.

 

[ICP]

I think Philly is gonna kill em next week

 

[meddleroidz]

eagles will gash and bash that D, Dak's 2 INT is probably 14 points right there. do the math.