Is this proof the running back position is ascending?

[Nova]

Great post. Glad you hit on who we could have had & the longevity portion of the equation. RB's can absolutely sizzle & make a team much better quickly. But their impact can sometimes be over valued because they play such a visible position.

Zeke was great & fun & no doubt made this team better but as you asked if you were doing it again with the value of hindsight there were players (or even combination of players if you traded down) who would have provided more value over a longer period of time. It's the same for the other picks you list. Don't see how anyone could argue differently.

Drafting Zeke wasn’t the problem. Extending him was.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, who was the better pick there and was their longevity worth more than Zeke’s initial value to the team?

 

[thunderpimp91]

It should be a strategy to get a difference maker early.

The shelf life for a RB is usually 6 seasons.

Why not grab a day one starter and control their prime years at a cap bargain?

Yeah I'm not completely opposed to it. My biggest hesitation is simply that i think this team needs a lot more than just a RB and could realistically be 1-2 years from seriously contending for anything so would you be better off going with a player at a position of a longer shelf life, and swinging back around at RB round 2 or 3 in what looks to be a deeper than usual class? I do think Jeanty is the one guy out of this class who would be worth the investment though.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Drafting Zeke wasn’t the problem. Extending him was.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, who was the better pick there and was their longevity worth more than Zeke’s initial value to the team?

Ramsey is one guy who I would say yes to. In theory you could have had Ramsey/Henry over Zeke/Smith.

 

[McKDaddy]

Drafting Zeke wasn’t the problem. Extending him was.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, who was the better pick there and was their longevity worth more than Zeke’s initial value to the team?

For me it's an easy decision to go another route with the benefit of hindsight. You could have put a lot of backs behind that line and put up some great numbers. Some of those other guys we coulda picked wouldn't have been as flashy but would have greatly improved our team and provided a steady return over a longer period.

Agree, the second contract was the real killer for Zeke but even if we let him go at that point the value of the pick isn't that great. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against Zeke on the field. I think he gave us everything he had but more often than not RB's don't age well.

 

[McKDaddy]

It should be a strategy to get a difference maker early.

The shelf life for a RB is usually 6 seasons.

Why not grab a day one starter and control their prime years at a cap bargain?

When it comes to RB though, I think the status of the team really matters as to when it is or isn't appropriate to spend a high pick. Detroit is the perfect example. They had completed the foundational work and were looking to add final pieces ie., difference makers & upgrades from good enough. Gibbs was a fine choice for them whereas he wouldn't have been a fine choice for a lot of teams at that position of the draft. He would have no doubt made the other teams better ... but he wouldn't put them over the top no matter what he did. You can make the argument that addition of Gibbs to Detroit's offense has taken them to another level and if they win a championship it could be on the difference between a guy who can break a 20 yard run vs a guy who can go 80.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Agree, the second contract was the real killer for Zeke but even if we let him go at that point the value of the pick isn't that great.

Remember Zeke had two years ( 4th and 5th-year option) left on his rookie deal AND was coming off a top 3 rushing season? Jerry had basically 3 options......trade, new deal or release him. Tough decision with all three......

 

[Nova]

Ramsey is one guy who I would say yes to. In theory you could have had Ramsey/Henry over Zeke/Smith.

That’s been my conventional wisdom also. But I’m trying to be introspective and think differently.

CBs typically have longer careers, but how many can truly change the betting odds and was Ramsey even really one of them?

And how do we grade longevity? Ramsey is still in the league, but his last great year was maybe 2021?

For me, I’m cool with either pick, but I’m not so sure Ramsey was the slam dunk better pick anymore.

FWIW, with full hindsight I think I’d go Zeke/Jones if I could.

 

[Nova]

When it comes to RB though, I think the status of the team really matters as to when it is or isn't appropriate to spend a high pick. Detroit is the perfect example. They had completed the foundational work and were looking to add final pieces ie., difference makers & upgrades from good enough. Gibbs was a fine choice for them whereas he wouldn't have been a fine choice for a lot of teams at that position of the draft. He would have no doubt made the other teams better ... but he wouldn't put them over the top no matter what he did. You can make the argument that addition of Gibbs to Detroit's offense has taken them to another level and if they win a championship it could be on the difference between a guy who can break a 20 yard run vs a guy who can go 80.

Totally, totally agree.

 

[jaythecowboy]

The rb position was overvalued around the time Zeke got his big contract but since then the salaries have adjusted a lot. When Zeke got $15 million a year the top receivers were getting $20 million. Now the top receiver is getting $35 million and the top rb contract is getting $19 million.

 

[McKDaddy]

Remember Zeke had two years ( 4th and 5th-year option) left on his rookie deal AND was coming off a top 3 rushing season? Jerry had basically 3 options......trade, new deal or release him. Tough decision with all three......

Or refuse, at least until he played another season. Zeke had no leverage. Jerry tries to do right by players but it's not always the best thing for the organization.

Perhaps Zeke shows signs of decline & Jerry takes one of the other paths or at least lowers the contract value.

 

[CowboyFrog]

There is a huge diference between looking for overvalue in the 3-4th round in RB's instead of going top 5 pick verse going to camp with a bunch of nothings at RB like this off season. Most FO's are looking for cap relief where they can find it and RB will still be a hot spot for it because of the life span vs talent gap in the RB pool...what this FO did this year is WAY off the chart of any reasonable option at RB....OF COURSE they will overcorrect and pick an RB with our top pick because Jerry gonna Jerry....

 

[DFWJC]

It should be a strategy to get a difference maker early.

The shelf life for a RB is usually 6 seasons.

Why not grab a day one starter and control their prime years at a cap bargain?

Sure...sometime between picks 25ish and 65ish....sounds like a plan.
That's where the vast majority of the top 15 RBs were taken.
40ish seems to be the sweet spot.

Not top 10 or higher though.

RBs average salaries are about 9th or 10th among the positions. If you're going to save dollars by taking a player early in the 1st and leveraging that rookie deal, that for sure would not be RB.
In fact, it wouldn't be much savings at all.

But later? Yes

 

[Nova]

Sure...sometime between picks 25ish and 65ish....sounds like a plan.
That's where the vast majority of the top 15 RBs were taken.
40ish seems to be the sweet spot.

Not top 10 or higher though.

RBs average salaries are about 9th or 10th among the positions. If you're going to save dollars by taking a player early in the 1st and leveraging that rookie deal, that for sure would not be RB.
In fact, it wouldn't be much savings at all.

But later? Yes

Some good points and you're probably right.

I guess my overall point is that team's shouldn't shy away from drafting a difference making RB high.

 

[Aven8]

There is no question...... few nuggets from league insiders that we could see more in 2025





Here are his stats...... a few years ago, he would have cost a bag of chips


https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ConnJa00.htm

The league is constantly evolving. 4-5 WR sets brought in shell coverages, two deep etc. Also, two LB schemes. To counter that teams are now running the football again. Soon enough the defense will adapt and maybe we see more 34 schemes, or traditional 43 schemes, and than the offenses will be bombs away again.

 

[kskboys]

For me it's an easy decision to go another route with the benefit of hindsight. You could have put a lot of backs behind that line and put up some great numbers. Some of those other guys we coulda picked wouldn't have been as flashy but would have greatly improved our team and provided a steady return over a longer period.

Agree, the second contract was the real killer for Zeke but even if we let him go at that point the value of the pick isn't that great. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against Zeke on the field. I think he gave us everything he had but more often than not RB's don't age well.

He was under contract for 2 more years. Why would you let him go at that point?

 

[kskboys]

Sure...sometime between picks 25ish and 65ish....sounds like a plan.
That's where the vast majority of the top 15 RBs were taken.
40ish seems to be the sweet spot.

Not top 10 or higher though.

RBs average salaries are about 9th or 10th among the positions. If you're going to save dollars by taking a player early in the 1st and leveraging that rookie deal, that for sure would not be RB.
In fact, it wouldn't be much savings at all.

But later? Yes

There's no exact spot to take any player. Gibbs has shown beyond any doubt that he was worth the pick, even though the anti-RB crowd spewed and stewed and whined about his drafting. Just because starting RBs were taken at a certain spot, that does not make it some magical area to take them. Just doesn't work that way.

Top RBs in the NFL this year:

Barkley: 1st round/2nd pick in draft
Mixon: 2nd round
Henry: 2nd round
Josh Jacobs: 1st/24th pick
Jamyr Gibbs: 12th pick in draft

Two things this shows:

1) A RB needs a good team and the right scheme to succeed
2) Some RB's are well worth a high 1st.

 

[KingCorcoran]

There's no exact spot to take any player. Gibbs has shown beyond any doubt that he was worth the pick, even though the anti-RB crowd spewed and stewed and whined about his drafting. Just because starting RBs were taken at a certain spot, that does not make it some magical area to take them. Just doesn't work that way.

Top RBs in the NFL this year:

Barkley: 1st round/2nd pick in draft
Mixon: 2nd round
Henry: 2nd round
Josh Jacobs: 1st/24th pick
Jamyr Gibbs: 12th pick in draft

Two things this shows:

1) A RB needs a good team and the right scheme to succeed
2) Some RB's are well worth a high 1st.

Until a team has built a quality OLine and DLine drafting any other position is a gamble. Those two rookie DBs on Philly. They are not as good as they are if Carter is not already on that team. Sans Philly’s two O tackles Barkley isn’t doing all he’s doing this season. If there is no need to improve the trenches a team can afford to use top draft capital on running backs and wide receivers.

 

[McKDaddy]

He was under contract for 2 more years. Why would you let him go at that point?

I meant let him go at the end of his rookie contract rather than do the 2nd contract.