Yes and its why I want Jeanty.
QBs arent throwing for big yardage anymore
1. Lack of talent at qb overall
2. 2-Deep coverages
I think it’s still pointing towards no taking Jeanty. Because Philly didn’t burn a high 1st on Barkley. Green Bay didn’t burn a 1st on Jacobs. Let’s look at these RB “successes” in the first round:
2016: Dallas takes Zeke 4th overall, which was a hit. You can bemoan his second contract, but can’t argue he was anywhere close to being a bust. If you had hindsight 20/20, and you were back at pick 4 with these options….
Jack Conklin, All-Pro rookie season, still a starting tackle in the NFL in 2024.
Jalen Ramsay, still a perennial pro bowl starting CB in 2024.
Deforest Buckner, many time pro bowl DT with 67 career sacks….
Are you still taking Zeke 4th with what you know about him, the 2016-2024 Cowboys, and every other option at that pick?
2018: Giants Select Saquon Barkley 2nd overall. Like Zeke, not close to a bust, it was a hit. The players available at that spot:
Josh Allen, QB
Denzel Ward, 3-time PB CB
Bradley Chubb, DE with 40 career sacks including 11 last year
Quenton Nelson, pro bowl every year of his career
Knowing what you do about Saquon’s career so far, the Giants, and the picks available, are you still taking Saquon 2 overall? We can keep going
2015: Rams Take Todd Gurley 10th overall. Great player, OPOY, played in a SB… and retired by 2021. Who else could they have had?
Arik Armstead, DT with 97 starts and 35 career sacks
Andrus Peat, LG with 102 starts
Bud Dupree, LB with 99 starts and 58 career sacks
Laken Tomlinson, LG with 150 starts
DJ Humphries, pro bowl LT with 98 career starts
All still playing 4 years after Gurley retired.
2019: Josh Jacobs, 24th overall. He had some big yardage seasons for Oak/LV, but they amounted to nothing and LV didn’t even want to re-sign him.
Next DE was Montez Sweat, already 46 career sacks.
Next Olineman was Caleb McGary, already 87 starts.
Next Olineman after that is Jawaan Taylor, 95 starts.
2023: Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. Still new, still young, but here are the guys they could have had:
Jalen Carter, DT. Second in DROY
Darnell Wright, T. Started every possible game so far and has an excellent PFF grade this year
Will McDonald, DE. Already 10 sacks in 12 games
Calijah Kancey, DT. Some injuries this year, but has 6 sacks in 7 games (at DT!)
Jordan Addison, WR. 900 yards as a rookie and looks even better this year.
Despite the fact that every first round RB was a hit, give all of these teams the benefit of hindsight and they will pick someone else. Maybe not the 2 2023 guys but they’re still new, in time the teams will eventually come around to the value lost. It doesn’t matter if Jeanty is a star, if he is an electric player who makes Madden fun. The value isn’t there. Saquon and Henry are having strong years because they went to complete teams, complete offenses who had strong run games already. They’re paid so little compared to other positions because they require so much already in place to succeed. That is not someone you spend premium draft capital on.
