Is This Team Much Different Than Last Year?

[Verdict]

So, off the top of my head, next year's draft haul should be a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3 4ths, 2 5ths (gave up 1 for Xavier Woods trade up) a 6th and a 7th. As I remember we should get two 4ths and two 5th round compensatory picks. So 10 picks overall - at this stage.
Obviously depending on how the team gels the remainder of this season, but to me, this may be the most important draft moving forward for awhile. We have the QB, whether Risen thinks so or not. RB, O-line should have 4 of 5 in place. I think we have our corners.
So needs meet resources - and hopefully during the off-season we pick up Martins contract, and a few quality FA's.
I see the first 6 picks as the quality picks 1 thru 4 rounds. With the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds being for depth.
As Percy just showed, the main culprit is the defense and that's where most of the picks should go, but we do still have needs on offense as well. Soooo where do we go ? We need LBers. We need a high quality 1-tech. We need a high quality Strong Safety. Unfortunately we probably need another DE. But, we also need a TE (depending on Rico's development), a WR, probably a LG.
So what you guys think ....

I was thinking 3 comp picks is the max but I might be wrong.

 

[T-RO]

Have you watched the games?

The team is 10-15% worse on offense and 50-60% worse on defense. Offense is good enough, defense is really bad.

In todays NFL, 10% worse on offense and 50% worse on defense is the difference between 11-13 wins versus 5-8 wins.

Well end of discussion I guess. You've got it figured out with math in your head. Who can argue with that?

Our defense is performing worse than last year *primarily* because of two players. That and tougher strength of schedule.

We have roster answers for both those roster spots (Hitchens>Jaylon; Woods>Heath)

We've had better pass rush than an any time in the past 4-5 years.

 

[Stash]

It's easy to look at the standings and conclude that the 2017 (2-3) Cowboys edition isn't nearly as good as the 2016 edition (13-3).

Is that true? I will argue here that there has a small decline, but not a great difference. LG, RT and MLB are the only spots where I really see decline.

Consider some of our wins last year:
-A last second miracle against Pittsburgh despite the fact we couldn't stop their offense.

-A win over the Vikings where they were missing about a third of their starters and where we were outgained. Dak had a QB rating of 51.

-A win against the Eagles where we'd been down 20-10 before punter Chris Jones sprinted for 30 on 4th down. We were on our own 27 yard line facing 4th and 8!

-A win against a Bears team that was decimated w/injury and relying on backup QB

-Win over hapless Cleveland

-Two nail-biter wins against Skins

-We were down 14 in SF

The margin separating success and failure in the NFL is often razor thin. I'm not as discouraged as some fans. We have a few poignant holes and we'll get them addressed...either during this season...or in the offseason.

I think the longterm outlook for the team is positive.

I don't see how finding fault with last year's 13-3 team helps to ease the disappointment with this year's version. Last year, they found ways to win - as you pointed out - and this year, they find ways to lose.

And I think it's overly simplistic to simply lay all the blame at LG and RT simply because those are the new pieces. The "Super All-Pro Squad" isn't playing up to their own last standards either.

 

[percyhoward]

We have ample reason to believe this defense will be better as the season progresses.

This team is much different from last year's, and the difference is the defense. Not a tricky bounce, or bad luck here or there. The defense.

Maybe you meant, "Will this team be much different from last year's at the end of the season?"

 

[Stash]

This team is much different from last year's, and the difference is the defense. Not a tricky bounce, or bad luck here or there. The defense.

Maybe you meant, "Will this team be much different from last year's at the end of the season?"

And it's not simply because "they're playing rookies" like some want to simplify it. The fact is that the defense is failing at every level - defensive line, linebackers, and secondary. And little of it has anything to do with rookies (unless that's what you consider Jaylon Smith).

But there are plenty of players who aren't rookies who are a big part of this defense's problems. As well as a coordinator that does little to nothing in terms of putting his players in the best position to make plays. He's a big part of the problem.

 

[dfense]

There are plenty of teams that made hardly any changes and aren't playing as well. NE, Atlanta, NYG, Oakland all come to mind.

 

[CowboyRoy]

It's easy to look at the standings and conclude that the 2017 (2-3) Cowboys edition isn't nearly as good as the 2016 edition (13-3).

Is that true? I will argue here that there has a small decline, but not a great difference. LG, RT and MLB are the only spots where I really see decline.

Consider some of our wins last year:
-A last second miracle against Pittsburgh despite the fact we couldn't stop their offense.

-A win over the Vikings where they were missing about a third of their starters and where we were outgained. Dak had a QB rating of 51.

-A win against the Eagles where we'd been down 20-10 before punter Chris Jones sprinted for 30 on 4th down. We were on our own 27 yard line facing 4th and 8!

-A win against a Bears team that was decimated w/injury and relying on backup QB

-Win over hapless Cleveland

-Two nail-biter wins against Skins

-We were down 14 in SF

The margin separating success and failure in the NFL is often razor thin. I'm not as discouraged as some fans. We have a few poignant holes and we'll get them addressed...either during this season...or in the offseason.

I think the longterm outlook for the team is positive.

The defense is worse for sure. And without Sean Lee, its arguable the worst defense in the NFL. The Oline is definitely worse which hinders the run game and the passing game. So a well oiled machine that couldnt be stopped on offense is now worse. Then we have the whole Elliott mess. Not sure what angle you are taking here.

Then you throw in the suspensions and the injury factor that were not as big an issue last year other than Romo. Throw that all in with a first place schedule compared to a last place schedule from last year and there you have the makings of the problems we are having this year. Looks to be another 8-8 type season for me. I dont see playoffs unless guys like Rogers keep dropping like flies for other NFC contenders. Is it possible the Cowboys could turn this all around? Sure, but not likely. And I see no way this teams does anything special on the road even if it gets to the playoffs.

 

[aikemirv]

It's easy to look at the standings and conclude that the 2017 (2-3) Cowboys edition isn't nearly as good as the 2016 edition (13-3).

Is that true? I will argue here that there has a small decline, but not a great difference. LG, RT and MLB are the only spots where I really see decline.

Consider some of our wins last year:
-A last second miracle against Pittsburgh despite the fact we couldn't stop their offense.

-A win over the Vikings where they were missing about a third of their starters and where we were outgained. Dak had a QB rating of 51.

-A win against the Eagles where we'd been down 20-10 before punter Chris Jones sprinted for 30 on 4th down. We were on our own 27 yard line facing 4th and 8!

-A win against a Bears team that was decimated w/injury and relying on backup QB

-Win over hapless Cleveland

-Two nail-biter wins against Skins

-We were down 14 in SF

The margin separating success and failure in the NFL is often razor thin. I'm not as discouraged as some fans. We have a few poignant holes and we'll get them addressed...either during this season...or in the offseason.

I think the longterm outlook for the team is positive.

I am in agreement with you. Last year we won the games like Green Bay and the Rams.

One notable difference for this year is the time of possesion. We are scoring points but not dominating the ball and our defense is on the filed a lot more (without Sean Lee) who played all of last year!

 

[percyhoward]

One notable difference for this year is the time of possession. We are scoring points but not dominating the ball and our defense is on the field a lot more...

Our defense faced more possessions last year.

Opponent drives per game
2016 10.4
2017 10.0

What that tells us is, it's not a matter of the offense sending the defense back out onto the field more often. You're right, the defense has been on the field a lot more. But it's because the defense can't get itself off the field. IOW, the problem is that the opponent's drives are longer -- not that there's more of them.

 

[Them]

"Is This Team Much Different Than Last Year?"... Last year it seemed just a little easier to win a freaking game!...

 

[T-RO]

Our defense faced more possessions last year.

Opponent drives per game
2016 10.4
2017 10.0

What that tells us is, it's not a matter of the offense sending the defense back out onto the field more often. You're right, the defense has been on the field a lot more. But it's because the defense can't get itself off the field. IOW, the problem is that the opponent's drives are longer -- not that there's more of them.

I agree w/Percy on this one.

 

[bsbellomy]

It's easy to look at the standings and conclude that the 2017 (2-3) Cowboys edition isn't nearly as good as the 2016 edition (13-3).

Is that true? I will argue here that there has a small decline, but not a great difference. LG, RT and MLB are the only spots where I really see decline.

Consider some of our wins last year:
-A last second miracle against Pittsburgh despite the fact we couldn't stop their offense.

-A win over the Vikings where they were missing about a third of their starters and where we were outgained. Dak had a QB rating of 51.

-A win against the Eagles where we'd been down 20-10 before punter Chris Jones sprinted for 30 on 4th down. We were on our own 27 yard line facing 4th and 8!

-A win against a Bears team that was decimated w/injury and relying on backup QB

-Win over hapless Cleveland

-Two nail-biter wins against Skins

-We were down 14 in SF

The margin separating success and failure in the NFL is often razor thin. I'm not as discouraged as some fans. We have a few poignant holes and we'll get them addressed...either during this season...or in the offseason.

I think the longterm outlook for the team is positive.

In other words we weren't that good last year. Thanks for cheering me up pal.

 

[Beast_from_East]

It's easy to look at the standings and conclude that the 2017 (2-3) Cowboys edition isn't nearly as good as the 2016 edition (13-3).

Is that true? I will argue here that there has a small decline, but not a great difference. LG, RT and MLB are the only spots where I really see decline.

Consider some of our wins last year:
-A last second miracle against Pittsburgh despite the fact we couldn't stop their offense.

-A win over the Vikings where they were missing about a third of their starters and where we were outgained. Dak had a QB rating of 51.

-A win against the Eagles where we'd been down 20-10 before punter Chris Jones sprinted for 30 on 4th down. We were on our own 27 yard line facing 4th and 8!

-A win against a Bears team that was decimated w/injury and relying on backup QB

-Win over hapless Cleveland

-Two nail-biter wins against Skins

-We were down 14 in SF

The margin separating success and failure in the NFL is often razor thin. I'm not as discouraged as some fans. We have a few poignant holes and we'll get them addressed...either during this season...or in the offseason.

I think the longterm outlook for the team is positive.

You answered your own question, LG, RT, MLB are all worse this year and as a result the team is not winning the close game they won last year.

Not because of some fluke, but because the team is simply not as good. Yes, the parity in the league is such that if you are not as good as you were last year, then you are not going to win as much as last year.

It really is not that complicated.....now you want to win more next year, get better and not worse in the offseason

 

[Beast_from_East]

LG - Getting better. Progress is being made.

RT - Has Collins really been worse than Turnstile Free?

MLB - The plan wasn't for Jaylon to get nearly as many snaps as he has. We all know he was forced into action. Get back the original plan to put Hitch back in there and you should see improved play.

The plan this season was to improve as the season went along especially in the OL and secondary. The 2017 Cowboys aren't as good as the 2016 version.....yet. Will they be by January is the real question. Until then comparing W's and L's from last year isn't an honest way of judging the teams.

The problem with this “get better as the season progresses” strategy is that all these games count. What good is it for the team to hit its stride come December if by then they will have lost too many games to make the playoffs?

We have all seen it before, some team gets hot and wins it’s last 5 or 6 games but misses the playoffs because they sucked in September and October.

I don’t want that to be us this year, we need to win right now.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Defense has been the obvious difference from 2016.

Offense - Points/Game
2016 26.5
2017 25.2

Defense - Points Allowed/Game
2016 19.6
2017 24.2

And the points allowed have nothing to do with the defense facing more possessions.

Opponent drives per game
2016 10.4
2017 10.0

Nice analysis my friend. So the defense is basically giving up a TD a game more this year than last year facing the same number of drives and the offense is status quo.

Well it seems like letting the entire secondary walk might not have been the best option.

 

[Beast_from_East]

We know how this movie ends. This is points per drive...

2013
offense 4th
defense 30th

2017
offense 4th
defense 32nd

Percy is just slaying this thread

 

[T-RO]

Percy is just slaying this thread

He might be if he weren't working with hopelessly small statistical sample sizes, and choosing to ignore the absences (complete or partial) of 1/3 of key defensive players in the first 5 games.

 

[Beast_from_East]

There are plenty of teams that made hardly any changes and aren't playing as well. NE, Atlanta, NYG, Oakland all come to mind.

There is a difference between not playing well and absolutely sucking.

Thanks to Percy’s outstanding research we know that when it comes to points per opponent drives, we are dead last in the NFL.

Let me repeat that, DEAD LAST!!!

 

[xwalker]

It's easy to look at the standings and conclude that the 2017 (2-3) Cowboys edition isn't nearly as good as the 2016 edition (13-3).

Is that true? I will argue here that there has a small decline, but not a great difference. LG, RT and MLB are the only spots where I really see decline.

Consider some of our wins last year:
-A last second miracle against Pittsburgh despite the fact we couldn't stop their offense.

-A win over the Vikings where they were missing about a third of their starters and where we were outgained. Dak had a QB rating of 51.

-A win against the Eagles where we'd been down 20-10 before punter Chris Jones sprinted for 30 on 4th down. We were on our own 27 yard line facing 4th and 8!

-A win against a Bears team that was decimated w/injury and relying on backup QB

-Win over hapless Cleveland

-Two nail-biter wins against Skins

-We were down 14 in SF

The margin separating success and failure in the NFL is often razor thin. I'm not as discouraged as some fans. We have a few poignant holes and we'll get them addressed...either during this season...or in the offseason.

I think the longterm outlook for the team is positive.

When I look at the team on a per position basis, I don't think it's that much worse than last year.

The offensive performance is not the problem. So that leaves the defense to be analyzed:
DE: Better with DLaw healthy.
DT: Worse with no 1-tech but McClain faded last season.
LB: Worse without Lee/Hitchens but same when both return.
Jones: Same or better with experience.
Scandrick: Slightly better.
Brown: Same or better with experience.
Lewis vs Carr: Better now.
Heath vs Church: Worse against the run, similar against the pass.

Going forward:
1-tech DT: Price with Collins/Irving also taking snaps at 1-tech. Both DTs play as 3-techs in obvious passing situations. Will they add anybody?

LB: Same as 2016 if Lee and Hitchens both healthy.

SS: A combination of Woods/Awuzie/Frazier might phase out Heath.

If everybody can get/stay healthy the defense could be better than last year before the end of this season.

 

[T-RO]

3 or 4 posters have refen

There is a difference between not playing well and absolutely sucking.

Thanks to Percy’s outstanding research we know that when it comes to points per opponent drives, we are dead last in the NFL.

Let me repeat that, DEAD LAST!!!

You want to repeat it? I'll repeat it for you. 32nd. Bottom of the barrel. Worst of 'em all.

Now let's see what happens the best/right pieces on the field.