Is This Team Much Different Than Last Year?

[percyhoward]

Stats in respect to whom we played, not the average.

The Rams and Packers (with a healthy Rodgers) did this in their other games:

Rams' points per drive
2.24 vs other teams
3.18 vs. Dallas

Packers' points per drive
2.40 vs. other teams
4.43 vs. Dallas

If you want to convert that to points per game, multiply by 11. In a typical game without return TD, each team has 11 drives.

And we would have won, because our defense would held them to a lower scoring output than GBs defense...

Playing "good enough" defense isn't the same as playing good defense. Assuming the Packers make their extra points, our defense would have held them to 31. That kind of defensive performances loses 75% of the time.

 

[T-RO]

The Rams and Packers (with a healthy Rodgers) did this in their other games:

Rams' points per drive
2.24 vs other teams
3.18 vs. Dallas

Packers' points per drive
2.40 vs. other teams
4.43 vs. Dallas

If you want to convert that to points per game, multiply by 11. In a typical game without return TD, each team has 11 drives.


Playing "good enough" defense isn't the same as playing good defense. Assuming the Packers make their extra points, our defense would have held them to 31. That kind of defensive performances loses 75% of the time.

Stuff a billion stats from a game or two ...into a blender...set to puree...and you'll get no nutritional benefit. Small sample sizes are meaningless. You can prove anything you want pulling stats from a random Sunday game.

Take one of the best linebackers in the game--and our glue--and replace him with a guy who right now is utterly inept...and you lose a close game.

This isn't a good defense. I've never said it is. But it can be OK.

 

[DCowboyz]

The Rams and Packers (with a healthy Rodgers) did this in their other games:

Rams' points per drive
2.24 vs other teams
3.18 vs. Dallas

Packers' points per drive
2.40 vs. other teams
4.43 vs. Dallas

If you want to convert that to points per game, multiply by 11. In a typical game without return TD, each team has 11 drives.


Playing "good enough" defense isn't the same as playing good defense. Assuming the Packers make their extra points, our defense would have held them to 31. That kind of defensive performances loses 75% of the time.

I keep saying, give me a solid defense and we're 4-1. Maybe even 5-0. I'd take the Browns D at this point. And their coaches too.

 

[percyhoward]

We also played crappy defenses and we couldn’t score more than the other team, part of the reason being our offense gifted an opposing defense 7 points... you see how that works?

Those "crappy" defenses allowed below the league average in points per drive in their other 10 games. The 17th-ranked Rams' defense would be 11th if they hadn't played the Cowboys. The 20th-ranked Packers' D would rank 13th.

Rams' points allowed per drive
1.73 vs other teams
3.10 vs. Dallas

Packers' points allowed per drive
1.79 vs. other teams
3.44 vs. Dallas

is the fact offense has 7 TOs because we are playing much better defenses or our offense is making stupid mistakes?

2 of those turnovers were fumbles on a desperation play that featured five laterals. Another one was Switzer on a punt return, when the offense wasn't on the field. Otherwise, we've turned it over 4 times in 51 offensive drives, which would rank in the Top 5 for fewest turnovers per drive.

 

[percyhoward]

Stuff a billion stats from a game or two ...into a blender...set to puree...and you'll get no nutritional benefit. Small sample sizes are meaningless. You can prove anything you want pulling stats from a random Sunday game.

I had originally posted the stats for all five games, which is the same sample everyone's comments are based on -- including yours. The post you quoted was in response to someone who asked specifically about just the last two.

 

[CCBoy]

The Rams and Packers (with a healthy Rodgers) did this in their other games:

Rams' points per drive
2.24 vs other teams
3.18 vs. Dallas

Packers' points per drive
2.40 vs. other teams
4.43 vs. Dallas

If you want to convert that to points per game, multiply by 11. In a typical game without return TD, each team has 11 drives.


Playing "good enough" defense isn't the same as playing good defense. Assuming the Packers make their extra points, our defense would have held them to 31. That kind of defensive performances loses 75% of the time.

lol, Percy...and we still have to discuss why Jason Garrett limits the play through non creative choices. Fix the defense...still!

 

[CCBoy]

Stuff a billion stats from a game or two ...into a blender...set to puree...and you'll get no nutritional benefit. Small sample sizes are meaningless. You can prove anything you want pulling stats from a random Sunday game.

Take one of the best linebackers in the game--and our glue--and replace him with a guy who right now is utterly inept...and you lose a close game.

This isn't a good defense. I've never said it is. But it can be OK.

Don't take emotional baggage into a dog fight with Percy...that dog won't come back out. Percy states his meaning...just listen.

 

[T-RO]

We get Jaylon off the field...stay moderately healthy...this defense will be OK.

Not top 10 by any stretch, but it will play like a middle-of-the-pack unit. Anyone want to make a gentlemanly wager...no money...just an enjoyable acknowledgement of the proposition...I'm game.

The proposition is this: over the final 11 games of the season the Cowboys defense will be in the top 18 teams in the league. We will have to find a stats site that shows splits. Yes or no. I say YES.

 

[DandyDon52]

I think last year was before we lost the players that we lost the 2016 team was better than the 2017 team player wise.

also they had what turned out to be a weaker schedule .
and they got lucky and won some close games to get the 11-game win streak.

this year they haven't been lucky on winning the close games and they are just simply a weaker team with a stronger schedule.
now maybe they can play better down the stretch who knows,but right now it looks like an 8-8 team.

 

[Beast_from_East]

A whole lot. We're actually worse in TD allowed than FG allowed.

NFL rank -- Dallas defense
% of drives ending in TD 29th
% of drives ending in FG 27th
% of drives ending in punts 27th
% of drives ending in takeaway 31st
TOP per drive 28th
yards per drive 30th
points per drive 32nd

And the opponent's average starting field position ranks 30th (3rd best for the defense).

Dam, that is just sad.

Somebody needs to be fired for fielding a defense this bad............yikes.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Good gawd you are better than this--or I sincerely hope so. It takes ONE PLAY to stop a third down conversion. One play.

If teams can target Jaylon again and again in the run and pass game...how easy is it?


Totally Wrong. Percy is using stats of what was in the past--over the past five games. That's past. Lee and Hitch is back. Xavier will be playing more. Irving is back...and Jaylon will largely be on the bench.

While some are lost sorting out the train wreck of the past...choosing to live in hopeless gloom...I'm talking current reality.

What you are talking about is IN THE FUTURE.......Lee is back, Hitch is back, Xavier playing more, Jaylon on the bench, ect....

How do you know the rankings will change? How do you know if the team will improve from being 30th in TD drives allowed, how do you know the team will improve from being 32nd in points allowed per drive, how do you know the team will improve from being 29th in points allowed?

Simple answer is you don't, you are hoping things will be different than what they have been up till now, but HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY.

 

[Diehardblues]

It's easy to look at the standings and conclude that the 2017 (2-3) Cowboys edition isn't nearly as good as the 2016 edition (13-3).

Is that true? I will argue here that there has a small decline, but not a great difference. LG, RT and MLB are the only spots where I really see decline.

Consider some of our wins last year:
-A last second miracle against Pittsburgh despite the fact we couldn't stop their offense.

-A win over the Vikings where they were missing about a third of their starters and where we were outgained. Dak had a QB rating of 51.

-A win against the Eagles where we'd been down 20-10 before punter Chris Jones sprinted for 30 on 4th down. We were on our own 27 yard line facing 4th and 8!

-A win against a Bears team that was decimated w/injury and relying on backup QB

-Win over hapless Cleveland

-Two nail-biter wins against Skins

-We were down 14 in SF

The margin separating success and failure in the NFL is often razor thin. I'm not as discouraged as some fans. We have a few poignant holes and we'll get them addressed...either during this season...or in the offseason.

I think the longterm outlook for the team is positive.

I agree. I’m not as discouraged either. We won some very close games you can’t expect to win every year. Games like the last 2 losses.

But I do differ in that we are a much different team especially on defense. While we’ve seen some progress on DL our secondary has wholesale changes and these last couple games we obviously aren’t the same without Lee.And on OL, we’ve missed Leary and Free continuity .

So to say this team isn’t different is not a proper evaluation . The bigger issue is will it become as good or better than last year or will we need another draft and offseason to get back to where we were?

 

[Prossman]

Talent wise it is better but experience it is VERY young. by midseason this team will take a turn for the better. Will it be to late for a playoff run remains to be seen.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Pass rush is better. Young secondary is emerging. Also true: o-line isn't as good. It's close to a wash, overall, IMO...esp...once these guys all kick it into full gear:


-Lewis, no training camp
-Hitchens injury...but working back into form
-Lee injury...but he'll be back
-Moore suspension
-Irving suspension...working way back in
-Awuzie...repeated hamstring issues (big plus if he can get healthy)
-Youth, inexperience in spots that will grow

Now obviously the big downers that might not be as temporary:
Taco is giving us nothing and Jaylon is not ready.

You could have just summarized by saying they will improve simply because they cant be any worse.

 

[percyhoward]

We are a much different team especially on defense...And on OL, we’ve missed Leary and Free continuity.

Those are the two major differences. Fortunately, that second one is one that the rest of the offense has been able to overcome so far.

TD runs by RB / total offensive TD
2017 2 / 15 (13%)
2016 18 / 49 (37%)

Cowboys' NFL Rank, TD/offensive drive
2017 2nd
2016 5th

RB rushing yds / total offensive yds
2017 480 / 1,763 (27%)
2016 1,991 / 6,008 (33%)

Cowboys' NFL Rank, yards/drive
2017 4th
2016 6th

 

[xwalker]

What you are talking about is IN THE FUTURE.......Lee is back, Hitch is back, Xavier playing more, Jaylon on the bench, ect....

How do you know the rankings will change? How do you know if the team will improve from being 30th in TD drives allowed, how do you know the team will improve from being 32nd in points allowed per drive, how do you know the team will improve from being 29th in points allowed?

Simple answer is you don't, you are hoping things will be different than what they have been up till now, but HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY.

Fans don't affect the strategy. That's up to the team.

T-RO is not set a strategy but it's not just Hope. He is projecting an outcome based on actual events. Lee and Hitchens really are expected to play and keep Jaylon off the field. Rookie really should improve by the game. A CB really should be a better option against the slot WR than a Safety...

 

[CCBoy]

This is what is totally dysfunctional about the current Cowboys' team:

The team's defense ranks in the bottom 5 in points allowed (26.4 per game)

The defense has allowed 328 rushing yards in it's last two games

 

[cowboyblue22]

this season was pretty much lost in the offseason by the front office and coaching staff on decisions that were made in free agency they let some players go that they should of kept and signed some players that were duds heath should not be a starter that was a dumb decision made in the offseason letting all the secondary walk was a bad idea letting mcclain go was a bad idea and losing leary was a bad idea

 

[percyhoward]

T-RO is not set a strategy but it's not just Hope. He is projecting an outcome based on actual events.

The question in the OP was "Is this year's team much different?" As soon as the question turned into "Will this defense improve by the end of the season?" it was obvious that the first question had been answered.

 

[T-RO]

What you are talking about is IN THE FUTURE.......Lee is back, Hitch is back, Xavier playing more, Jaylon on the bench, ect....

How do you know the rankings will change? How do you know if the team will improve from being 30th in TD drives allowed, how do you know the team will improve from being 32nd in points allowed per drive, how do you know the team will improve from being 29th in points allowed?

Simple answer is you don't, you are hoping things will be different than what they have been up till now, but HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY.

Hitch is today. Lee is today. Xavier Today. That plus top-rated rookie Lewis and Irving and sack leader Demarcus frikken Lawrence.