It Does Matter Who You Play

[percyhoward]

And you want to single out the pair of games they played against each other because...

 

[Hostile]

And you want to single out the pair of games they played against each other because...

You can ignore how 24 games affect the % if you want to but I have no idea how you can.

Through 192 games they are dead even in strength of schedule. True or false?

Add their uncommon AFC opponents and Indy's schedule is actually harder and over 4 % points over .500 while Houston's is 13 % points below .500. True or false?

The huge difference happens when you add Indy to Houston's schedule and Houston to Indy's schedule.

Indy's strength of schedule plummets and Houston's rises.

I can pick another division if you want further proof this happens.

 

[Maikeru-sama]

Please...

We are 9-7 and out of the playoffs, no more excuses, just accept what your coach has told you, "You are what you are"?

The Colts are arguably the best team in football and their weak schedule doesn't give them no less of a shot to win it all.

The Chargers probably had the hardest schedule in football and still almost got into the playoffs, probably if they had not lost to the Dolphins they would have pulled it off.

Okay, since they had probably the hardest schedule in Football, does that mean if they would have gotten into the Playoffs they were guranteed to win the Super Bowl...heck no..

You only can play who is on the schedule....

Our offseason started when Sean Taylor scored that Touchdown on Sunday...accept it and please dont put other teams down that got into the Tourney for having a weak schedule...

- Mike G.

 

[percyhoward]

You can ignore how 24 games affect the % if you want to but I have no idea how you can.

So, by not especially focusing on these 24 games, your understanding is that I'm ignoring them...

 

[percyhoward]

We are 9-7 and out of the playoffs, no more excuses, just accept what your coach has told you, "You are what you are"?- Mike G.

What the Skins did with a tougher schedule pretty much snuffs out any excuses.

There's a lot written about key injuries, momentum swings, etc during a season. One team's collapse, another team's turnaround, but it mostly comes down to who you play.

 

[Hostile]

So, by not especially focusing on these 24 games, your understanding is that I'm ignoring them...

LOL

Whatever.

It's easy math. Try it yourself. For any division. Take Seattle and San Fran. Take Denver and Oakland. Chicaog and Green Bay. Hell, take New England and Buffalo. The numbers will be similar in result.

Wins drive the Strength of schedule up and losses drive it down. Don't know why that's so hard to grasp.

 

[Maikeru-sama]

What the Skins did with a tougher schedule pretty much snuffs out any excuses.

There's a lot written about key injuries, momentum swings, etc during a season. One team's collapse, another team's turnaround, but it mostly comes down to who you play.

I know that gives a team an edge, but the NFL has so much Parity, that if you are a Pretender and only successful because of a weak schedule, you eventually get exposed in this league.

I beleive ever team the is in the Playoffs deserves to be there.

And man, I just took glance at your post showing the Colts' 2005 schedule, and I dont know if that is a cakewalk either.

Okay Okay, let me ask you this?

Give the Cowboys the Colts' schedule and tell me what you think our record would be.

This is stupid because of "Any Given Sunday or Monday"

Ravens, 6 - Good Defense, I will say W
Jaguars, 12 - Good team, I will say L
Browns, 6 - W
Titans, 4 - W
49ers, 4 - Dont know man, they almost beat us , W
Rams, 6 - They beat us too, so I have to say L
Texans, 2 - L
Patriots, 10 - L
Texans, 2 - W
Bengals, 11 - L
Steelers, 11 - L
Titans, 4 - W
Jaguars, 12 - W (we split 1-1)
Chargers, 9 - W (They were a different team then what we face but we did win)
Seahawks, 13 - L
Cardinals, 5 - W

Man, I say the Cowboys have 9 Wins with that schedule, and that is being generous...

- Mike G.

 

[percyhoward]

OK Hos, here's a math question:

Dallas won more games than it lost, but Dallas' opponents' combined record was above .500

Why?

 

[percyhoward]

I'd like to have seen us play Seattle's schedule.

Of course every team that makes the playoffs deserves to be there, it's just a shame they don't all have the same schedule. It is do-able, if you add two regular season games, and eliminate interconference matchups.

Not the most marketable way though.

 

[Maikeru-sama]

I'd like to have seen us play Seattle's schedule.

Of course every team that makes the playoffs deserves to be there, it's just a shame they don't all have the same schedule. It is do-able, if you add two regular season games, and eliminate interconference matchups.

Not the most marketable way though.

Hahaha

We agree.

I just love their division...may need to shoot old Paul Tag an email about joining it lol.

 

[Hostile]

OK Hos, here's a math question:

Dallas won more games than it lost, but Dallas' opponents' combined record was above .500

Why?

Sigh

Chargers, 9
Commanders, 10
49ers, 4
Raiders, 4
Eagles, 6
Giants, 11
Seahawks, 13
Cardinals, 5
Eagles, 6
Lions, 5
Broncos, 13
Giants, 11
Chiefs, 10
Commanders, 10
Panthers, 11
Rams, 6

134 total wins in 256 total games is .523 strength of schedule.

The NFC East and AFC West were the 2 toughest divisions in 2005. We played our division opponents twice and each team in the AFCW.

Plus we got Seattle in a year they were strong, and the Panthers in a year they were strong.

It is a hard schedule. The Giants schedule was much softer. Their Strength of schedule reflects this at .492.

New Orleans and 3 wins, instead of Carolina and 11wins. That's +8 wins for Dallas' SOS.

San Fran and 4 wins, instead of Seattle and 13 wins. That's +9 wins for Dallas' SOS.

Then +4 wins for Dallas SOS for facing each other.

12 games do not decide the SOS between division rivals. 4 games do, because the first 12 are all equal for the entire division.

 

[percyhoward]

Sigh

Chargers, 9
Commanders, 10
49ers, 4
Raiders, 4
Eagles, 6
Giants, 11
Seahawks, 13
Cardinals, 5
Eagles, 6
Lions, 5
Broncos, 13
Giants, 11
Chiefs, 10
Commanders, 10
Panthers, 11
Rams, 6

134 total wins in 256 total games is .523 strength of schedule.

The NFC East and AFC West were the 2 toughest divisions in 2005. We played our division opponents twice and each team in the AFCW.

Plus we got Seattle in a year they were strong, and the Panthers in a year they were strong.

It is a hard schedule. The Giants schedule was much softer. Their Strength of schedule reflects this at .492.

New Orleans and 3 wins, instead of Carolina and 11wins. That's +8 wins for Dallas' SOS.

San Fran and 4 wins, instead of Seattle and 13 wins. That's +9 wins for Dallas' SOS.

Then +4 wins for Dallas SOS for facing each other.

12 games do not decide the SOS between division rivals. 4 games do, because the first 12 are all equal for the entire division.

Right. Now explain where Dallas' 9 wins "drove down the percentages of the teams they beat."

 

[Hostile]

Right. Now explain where Dallas' 9 wins "drove down the percentages of the teams they beat."

That isn't what I said PH. It isn't even close.

 

[percyhoward]

That isn't what I said PH. It isn't even close.

How about if we subtract a team's own record from it's opponents' combined record, to see how its opponents fared against the rest of the league? Let's use the extremes...

That makes Houston's SOS 123-117
Colts SOS: 115-125

Is that closer?

 

[Hostile]

How about if we subtract a team's own record from it's opponents' combined record, to see how its opponents fared against the rest of the league? Let's use the extremes...

That makes Houston's SOS 123-117
Colts SOS: 115-125

Is that closer?

I have no idea what you just said and how it is relevant to anything. My apologies for being dense.

12 games between division rivals are equal across the entire division.

From there when you have a division team with a hard schedule and a division team with an easy schedule it is based off of 4 games, 2 of them being head to head. The result can be quite significant.

If you can't see it, I don't know how to help you.

 

[percyhoward]

when you have a division team with a hard schedule and a division team with an easy schedule it is based off of 4 games, 2 of them being head to head. The result can be quite significant.

I read you all the way. Those 4 games are all there is to look at. What I don't get is why those 4 games somehow don't (or shouldn't) count.

If they give a significant result, then that reflects a significantly different SOS, without having to reflect a significantly different group of teams. Even if the only difference was that the two teams played each other (obviously they can't play against themselves), what makes one schedule harder than the other is that one of those two teams is much better than the other.

After all, diversity (one team being better than the other) is the only thing (albeit repeated over a greater number of games) that makes any schedule harder or easier than any other.

And that's totally valid. No reason to throw out those two games, because they count as much as any other game.

 

[Hostile]

I read you all the way. Those 4 games are all there is to look at. What I don't get is why those 4 games somehow don't (or shouldn't) count.

If they give a significant result, then that reflects a significantly different SOS, without having to reflect a significantly different group of teams. Even if the only difference was that the two teams played each other (obviously they can't play against themselves), what makes one schedule harder than the other is that one of those two teams is much better than the other.

After all, diversity (one team being better than the other) is the only thing (albeit repeated over a greater number of games) that makes any schedule harder or easier than any other.

And that's totally valid. No reason to throw out those two games, because they count as much as any other game.

I'm not saying they shouldn't count at all PH.

The SOS is what it is.

I just was pointing out that the weaker SOS schedules are affected by weak division foes and stronger SOS are as well.

Indy's is low because they play Houston twice. Houston's is high because they play Indy twice. You saw the jump. Through 14 games Indy had a harder sshedule.

You'll get the same results if you take the division winners in the weak SOS and compare them to a division for in the stronger SOS for every division.

Some divisions are stronger than others. In fact I really should do a calculation of which divisions played the strongest SOS. The 4 teams from each division would be equal for 12 games. It would be interesting to see if I am right that the NFCE and AFCW are the 2 toughest divisions. I think they are.

 

[Deacon Moss]

Wish in one hand and do something else in the other and see which fills up faster for those of you thinking the Commanders lose to the Bucs.

I agree. I can see them advancing to the NFCCG!!!

 

[Billy Bullocks]

If you consider a loss in the first wildcard game "deep in the playoffs", they just might.

Iwould totally talk smack about Washington, and I do believe that the 2nd loss was a fluke (atleast by how much we lost), but they have looked really good the last 6 games or so. Moss is back on. Portis is running really well. They arent half bad. I dont think they can take Seattle, or Chicago, but being as though they were a controversial call away from beating Tampa earlier this year, they could easily get a WC win.

 

[StarWiz2]

Washington has a one dimensional offense, (hand off to Portis and throw to Moss)...Any stupid DC (excluding Zimmer) can defense that team eyes blindfolded and his brain in a coma...Zimmer couldn't defense a kindergarten team in the 4th quarter!!! Listen I like Mike personally,and he may well make a great HC, but as a DC he reminds me of a man with all this talent and knowledge that get garbled when it comes down to the nitty gritty....It's like he's got a panic room in his brain where he retreats when things get rough.....Usually in the 4th quarter, 4th and longs, 3rd and longs, last 2 minutes, last 10 seconds....etc...........

Washington beat two teams on a letdown from big victories over KC....They beat 2 teams on the bottom scale of bad, and the Philly game was a loss, (no excuse for the Skins not to blow that game wide open) save for Mikey who will probably be given a red eye ticket out of town in due course........Talk about smoke and mirrors, thats the Skins.........and we'll see that Saturday.. and the Skins are going to be left to wonder how they were lucky enough to get in the playoffs to begin with.........Hmmm, sounds like Dallas of 2 years ago.......

Strength of schedule in the end doesn't matter, and it is a crapshoot but I believe there are some advantages to teams having to duke it out every game and not have a bunch of gimmees......whether the rewards are now are in the future.

THe NFC is crap this year.....Everyone knows that.......It has been for some time (see NE 3 super bowl wins)

Having said all this, I believe the NFC East is on the rise and we'll be kicking the crap out of the other divisions next year......Gibbs, Coughlin have brought stability to their teams, and if Parcells stays, the Cowboys will be much stronger. However, the Eagles will be back, and I have to give the nod to the Giants and Eagles next year, since the Skins and Cowboys continue to try to win with aging QB's.......Giants and Eagles have franchise QB's whether you like Manning/ McNabb or not, and Gibbs and Parcells, (if he stays) better hit the lottery soon on a franchise QB or we'll be doing mop up duty for the next few years no matter how good our defenses are......


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