lol, please... I'm still waiting for you to explain how you build in assumed first downs in to your phony 99.5% probability model. You've been running from that question for 10 pages. I know I won't get it, because you're all mouth and no substance. I have no idea about your qualifications, but generally the food is pretty good.
Thats rich.
Lets recap, I initially said 99.5% was significantly better than 95% as entire industries and science and production are built on trying to eliminate all risk or chance. You said No coach would know that and it didnt matter. I have infinite facts to support my position and your retort is basically "horseshoes"
You then champion your linked "95% WPA" as support that the team did the right thing...where in same article that % eroded to 53% in 4 plays. and 20 seconds (hint because the other team was given the ball.
I then show you where the my estimate of 99.5% was corroborated with last years stats of 99.35% conversion on all extrapoints. Mathematical fact. yet your retort is "phony 99.5%" "picked out of the air"
You asked the scenario. I said 2nd down wasnt the issue. You have to stay in bounds on first down. and keep the clock running. This was supported direclty from a Garrett quote provided in copy past and link. Next, The play on 2nd and 1 was to get the first down and fall down (wash TO #1 even with the botched 1st down stop of the clock). That makes it 1st and goal anywhere from the 5-1 yard line (drive started on the 15 so by my Burger King Math that would make the first down marker at the 5). 1st down kneel or dive. Wash last time out with 1:14 or so remaining. 2nd down takes it to 24 seconds, 3rd down takes it to 0:03. over.
Apparently our versions of running are vastly different. I have sat here and drafted picture after picture, painted numbers on the sections and given you brushes and paint and your response has been to drool all over it and play with your feces
We also have different definitions of integrity, class (still taking shots at fast food workers to prove some void and depression in your life), debate skills and overall human decency. I am very glad and comfortable to know this
So there is your mouth and substance and lesson for the day. You may have the last word (and Burger King reference) because you have made everyone in this thread dumber and dirty having to read you. It is funny that there is this continued warning of people offering nothing to the board except mindless "Dallas sucks, Garrett sucks, Jones Sucks" and here you come running to snatch the baton from their hand with "Its right because Dallas did it, Burger King" "I dont have to support my opinion because Im supporting everything blindly"
two sides. same coin