Zach Wilson was one of these guys who made a huge leap during the draft evaluation process. He had a great statistical year as a JR but BYU doesn't play anyone. Qb is a tough position to project, and it is made even more difficult by taking a QB who never faced any real NFL prospects on defense.....let alone multiple ones. BYU plays in a soft conference and the toughest team they played Zach's last year was Coastal Carolina. SF made the same error with Trey Lance taking him #3 overall. Lance played NOBODY in college.
Now, I think there is a place in the league for these guys to develop but the draft position was all wrong and they were way overvalued. While there are no guarantees on draft day and every pick is a guess. You can hedge the amount of guess work by simply looking at the quality of opponents they played against.