Mavs Man
All outta bubble gum
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http://www.slate.com/id/2181804/entry/2181844/
As we've talked about before, the football analytical world had a ways to go to catch up to the analytical baseball world a few years ago. Between the stuff we've done and the work of many others like Albert Breer and Michael David Smith, we're closing this gap in a hurry.
Now, to the arguing: I'm sure there's a lot that we'll agree on in this discussion, but I don't see how the Giants are going to upset the Cowboys. Even with a banged-up Tony Romo, the Cowboys still look like a team that can win a high-scoring shootout. I don't think the Giants can do the same.
The problem is New York's pitiful receiving corps. When I'm evaluating teams and players, I rely a lot on a statistic called Yards Per Attempt. I've found that YPA—total yards gained divided by total pass attempts—offers the best accounting of the efficiency and explosiveness of receivers and quarterbacks. For wide receivers, an excellent season-ending YPA is 10, and a poor one is around six. I know it's a small sample size, but in the two games since Jeremy Shockey left the Giants lineup with a broken leg, Steve Smith and Plaxico Burress have been abysmal. In the last two games of the year, Smith averaged only 5.8 YPA, and Burress averaged only 5.3. They both kept up that anemic pace in the wild-card game against Tampa Bay, with only 61 yards between them on 11 pass attempts.
For a receiver, a low YPA can be a symptom of poor play or of playing with a bad quarterback. In the Giants' case, the team's receivers typically have low YPAs because of Eli Manning's inaccuracy. The YPAs for Burress and Smith, though, are lower than their teammates' numbers, and based on what I've seen on tape it, is more their fault than Eli's. Smith simply doesn't get open. And besides the second game against the Eagles, Burress has disappeared since Week 6, perhaps due to a lingering leg injury. It is very hard for an offense to get moving if its receivers are putting up low YPA numbers. While Amani Toomer and backup tight end Kevin Boss are both producing at a much better rate, the Giants can't beat Dallas with those two alone. They'll need Smith or Burress to step up, and I don't see that happening.
As we've talked about before, the football analytical world had a ways to go to catch up to the analytical baseball world a few years ago. Between the stuff we've done and the work of many others like Albert Breer and Michael David Smith, we're closing this gap in a hurry.
Now, to the arguing: I'm sure there's a lot that we'll agree on in this discussion, but I don't see how the Giants are going to upset the Cowboys. Even with a banged-up Tony Romo, the Cowboys still look like a team that can win a high-scoring shootout. I don't think the Giants can do the same.
The problem is New York's pitiful receiving corps. When I'm evaluating teams and players, I rely a lot on a statistic called Yards Per Attempt. I've found that YPA—total yards gained divided by total pass attempts—offers the best accounting of the efficiency and explosiveness of receivers and quarterbacks. For wide receivers, an excellent season-ending YPA is 10, and a poor one is around six. I know it's a small sample size, but in the two games since Jeremy Shockey left the Giants lineup with a broken leg, Steve Smith and Plaxico Burress have been abysmal. In the last two games of the year, Smith averaged only 5.8 YPA, and Burress averaged only 5.3. They both kept up that anemic pace in the wild-card game against Tampa Bay, with only 61 yards between them on 11 pass attempts.
For a receiver, a low YPA can be a symptom of poor play or of playing with a bad quarterback. In the Giants' case, the team's receivers typically have low YPAs because of Eli Manning's inaccuracy. The YPAs for Burress and Smith, though, are lower than their teammates' numbers, and based on what I've seen on tape it, is more their fault than Eli's. Smith simply doesn't get open. And besides the second game against the Eagles, Burress has disappeared since Week 6, perhaps due to a lingering leg injury. It is very hard for an offense to get moving if its receivers are putting up low YPA numbers. While Amani Toomer and backup tight end Kevin Boss are both producing at a much better rate, the Giants can't beat Dallas with those two alone. They'll need Smith or Burress to step up, and I don't see that happening.
