I see no way this situation doesn't end in a lock out or strike. Revenues should be divided 50/50 between the owners and players, and the owners will be fighting for a number close to this. The players probably want to continue the upward trend to 60%+ (probably 62%-66.7%). The owners and players may be off by more than 10% of revenues!
For many owners, they now find themselves losing money due to higher salaries and a slow economy. The second problem is the argument between owners over profit sharing. I put these owners into three categories:
1. Large market owners
2. Small market owners who work hard to make money, but simply cannot compete with teams in larger cities
3. Small market owners who are cheap and/or don't work hard to market their teams
Category #2 has a legitimate gripe with category #1, while category #1 can point to category #3. Any revenue sharing should be based on how competant the management of the small market teams is, if the team is making the necessary steps to try to win, and if the team is making a legitimate attempt to market itself.
I also see rookie salaries being addressed as well. Both the owners and players want changes made, but the union does not. Expect a big fight on this issue.
The players do not realize how much they will lose in 2010 and 2011. With no floor, many small market teams will dump a lot of players in an attempt to make a profit in the uncapped years. Most of these players will be older or marginal players who will not be worth as much in free agency. The younger players will have to wait an additional two years to become free agents. Teams will also be able to keep their good players due to the additional tags. You may see a strike in 2011.
2012 may benefit the players when the younger guys start hitting free agency. If a lockout occurs, I look for it to happen before the 2012 season.
In either case, the league will bring in replacement player like it did in 1987. Since the owners don't pay the replacment players much, a year with replacement players hurts the players financially more than the owners. I predict that the players would cave first.