Last decade of Cowboys Day 3 draft picks and how they did

[cmoney23]

I

Three immediate big points:

• I liked the guys we drafted. Especially in rounds 1-3. Tyler Booker, Donovan Ezeiruaku and Shevon Revel are going to have impact almost immediately.
• I also believe we did not adequately address the biggest position needs we had going into the draft: DT, RB AND WR.
• Yes, on Day 3, we did draft speedy RB Jaydon Blue, DTs Jay Toia and Tommy Akingbesote and power back Phil Mafah. But the odds of those Day 3 guys becoming starters or even big contributors according to history are low.

So…What are the odds that a Day 3 Cowboys draft pick will ever become a primary starter for us? Here’s what history says:

• From 2015 through 2024 the Cowboys have used a total of 54 picks on Day 3 - 5th, 6th, and 7th round prospects.
• So here are ALL the Day 3 picks the Cowboys have had the last decade by year (multi-year starters in bold)
  • 2015: LB Damien Wilson, DE Ryan Russell, LB Mark Nzechoa, OT Lawrence Gibson, TE Geoff Swaim.
  • 2016: DE Charles Tapper, QB Dak Prescott, CB Anthony Brown, S Kavin Frazier, RB Darius Jackson, TE Rico Gathers.
  • 2017: WR Ryan Switzer, S Xavier Woods, DT Joie Ivey, WR Noah Brown, DT Jordan Carrell
  • 2018: DE Dorance Armstrong, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Mike White, LB Chris Covington, WR Cedric Wilson, RB Bo Scarborough.
  • 2019: RB Tony Pollard, CB Michael Jackson, DE Joe Jackson, S Donovan Wilson, RB Mike Webber, DE Jalen Jenks.
  • 2020: CB Reggie Robinson III, C Tyler Biadz, DT Bradley Anae, QB Ben DiNucci.
  • 2021: LB Jabril Cox, OL Josh Ball, WR Simi Fehoko, DT Quinton Bohanna, S Israel Mukamu, OL Matt Farniok.
  • 2022: TE Jake Ferguson, OT Matt Waletzko, CB Daron Bland, LB Damone Clark, DT John Ridgeway, LB Devin Harper.
  • 2023: DL Vilami Fehoko, OL Asim Richards, CB Eric Scott, RB Deuce Vaughn, WR Jalen Brooks
  • 2024: CB Calen Carson, WR Ryan Flournoy, OL Nathan Thomas, DL Justin Thomas.
• Of those 54 Day 3 draft picks the last decade, 11 became starters. Which is about 20%,, slightly above league average of 17%.

So again, I like a lot of the guys we drafted. But we cannot depend on the Day 3 draftees to fix us at DT or RB. (We didn’t draft a WR) I believe the FO is still working on picking up a WR and another RB. They should.

#1. THANK YOU for this break down! Great info and well done!!

I was of the thought that we didn't draft all that well in the later rounds and were mostly successful in the first round. But this tells me otherwise. It looks like we do a pretty good job drafting in the later rounds. According to Gemini (Google's AI) only around 6-9% (Niicceeee) become starters in the NFL. If we are pulling a 20% clip, we are crushing it.

 

[jazzcat22]

So before the draft most were saying it is a deep class at RB, they can wait and get one. As any RB can run behind a great OL. So I been told on here for years.

But when they did not go RB early, they took a top plug and OL, the team screwed up according to those same fans.
They select Blue in a deep RB class. Now he probably won’t make it because he was a day 3 pick.

You all need to make up your minds. .

 

[Bobhaze]

So before the draft most were saying it is a deep class at RB, they can wait and get one. As any RB can run behind a great OL. So I been told on here for years.

But when they did not go RB early, they took a top plug and OL, the team screwed up according to those same fans.
They select Blue in a deep RB class. Now he probably won’t make it because he was a day 3 pick.

You all need to make up your minds. .

It’s not “either or” or “all or nothing”. All drafts are shades of gray. All I did in this thread was show the math; what the “hit rate” is for Day 3 picks.

This thread is neither critical of the Cowboys nor praising them. It’s just what the averages show.

 

[conner01]

Philly was looking at Blue tho.

FO should also be looking at DTs.

I think adding a WR is important. Unless it’s an older player cut because a younger player was drafted I don’t see a DT being a real option. If they can play they are hard to get. DT is really tough because they are so hard to draft

 

[conner01]

Given the option of a great oline and avg RB, or great RB and avg oline I’d go with the great oline. Any back can be effective if he’s getting 3 yards before contact. And oline is about the safest picks in the draft. Generally a good college g or ot is good in the nfl

So before the draft most were saying it is a deep class at RB, they can wait and get one. As any RB can run behind a great OL. So I been told on here for years.

But when they did not go RB early, they took a top plug and OL, the team screwed up according to those same fans.
They select Blue in a deep RB class. Now he probably won’t make it because he was a day 3 pick.

You all need to make up your minds. .

 

[Spottswoode]

It’s not “either or” or “all or nothing”. All drafts are shades of gray. All I did in this thread was show the math; what the “hit rate” is for Day 3 picks.

This thread is neither critical of the Cowboys nor praising them. It’s just what the averages show.

Because we tend to not use FA for higher priced players, I would assume that opens more possibilities for draft picks in all rounds to contribute. I would think if your primary source of team building is the draft, you would naturally have more draft picks reach starter status. That might partially explain why we have a slightly higher % of day 3 picks.

 

[Zman5]

Although all not here Jeff Swaim has had a nice career . Especially for a 7th round pick.

 

[Wildcat711]

Because we tend to not use FA for higher priced players, I would assume that opens more possibilities for draft picks in all rounds to contribute. I would think if your primary source of team building is the draft, you would naturally have more draft picks reach starter status. That might partially explain why we have a slightly higher % of day 3 picks.

You make a good point.