Last decade of Cowboys Day 3 draft picks and how they did

[cmoney23]

I

Three immediate big points:

• I liked the guys we drafted. Especially in rounds 1-3. Tyler Booker, Donovan Ezeiruaku and Shevon Revel are going to have impact almost immediately.
• I also believe we did not adequately address the biggest position needs we had going into the draft: DT, RB AND WR.
• Yes, on Day 3, we did draft speedy RB Jaydon Blue, DTs Jay Toia and Tommy Akingbesote and power back Phil Mafah. But the odds of those Day 3 guys becoming starters or even big contributors according to history are low.

So…What are the odds that a Day 3 Cowboys draft pick will ever become a primary starter for us? Here’s what history says:

• From 2015 through 2024 the Cowboys have used a total of 54 picks on Day 3 - 5th, 6th, and 7th round prospects.
• So here are ALL the Day 3 picks the Cowboys have had the last decade by year (multi-year starters in bold)
  • 2015: LB Damien Wilson, DE Ryan Russell, LB Mark Nzechoa, OT Lawrence Gibson, TE Geoff Swaim.
  • 2016: DE Charles Tapper, QB Dak Prescott, CB Anthony Brown, S Kavin Frazier, RB Darius Jackson, TE Rico Gathers.
  • 2017: WR Ryan Switzer, S Xavier Woods, DT Joie Ivey, WR Noah Brown, DT Jordan Carrell
  • 2018: DE Dorance Armstrong, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Mike White, LB Chris Covington, WR Cedric Wilson, RB Bo Scarborough.
  • 2019: RB Tony Pollard, CB Michael Jackson, DE Joe Jackson, S Donovan Wilson, RB Mike Webber, DE Jalen Jenks.
  • 2020: CB Reggie Robinson III, C Tyler Biadz, DT Bradley Anae, QB Ben DiNucci.
  • 2021: LB Jabril Cox, OL Josh Ball, WR Simi Fehoko, DT Quinton Bohanna, S Israel Mukamu, OL Matt Farniok.
  • 2022: TE Jake Ferguson, OT Matt Waletzko, CB Daron Bland, LB Damone Clark, DT John Ridgeway, LB Devin Harper.
  • 2023: DL Vilami Fehoko, OL Asim Richards, CB Eric Scott, RB Deuce Vaughn, WR Jalen Brooks
  • 2024: CB Calen Carson, WR Ryan Flournoy, OL Nathan Thomas, DL Justin Thomas.
• Of those 54 Day 3 draft picks the last decade, 11 became starters. Which is about 20%,, slightly above league average of 17%.

So again, I like a lot of the guys we drafted. But we cannot depend on the Day 3 draftees to fix us at DT or RB. (We didn’t draft a WR) I believe the FO is still working on picking up a WR and another RB. They should.

#1. THANK YOU for this break down! Great info and well done!!

I was of the thought that we didn't draft all that well in the later rounds and were mostly successful in the first round. But this tells me otherwise. It looks like we do a pretty good job drafting in the later rounds. According to Gemini (Google's AI) only around 6-9% (Niicceeee) become starters in the NFL. If we are pulling a 20% clip, we are crushing it.

 

[jazzcat22]

So before the draft most were saying it is a deep class at RB, they can wait and get one. As any RB can run behind a great OL. So I been told on here for years.

But when they did not go RB early, they took a top plug and OL, the team screwed up according to those same fans.
They select Blue in a deep RB class. Now he probably won’t make it because he was a day 3 pick.

You all need to make up your minds. .

 

[Bobhaze]

So before the draft most were saying it is a deep class at RB, they can wait and get one. As any RB can run behind a great OL. So I been told on here for years.

But when they did not go RB early, they took a top plug and OL, the team screwed up according to those same fans.
They select Blue in a deep RB class. Now he probably won’t make it because he was a day 3 pick.

You all need to make up your minds. .

It’s not “either or” or “all or nothing”. All drafts are shades of gray. All I did in this thread was show the math; what the “hit rate” is for Day 3 picks.

This thread is neither critical of the Cowboys nor praising them. It’s just what the averages show.

 

[conner01]

Philly was looking at Blue tho.

FO should also be looking at DTs.

I think adding a WR is important. Unless it’s an older player cut because a younger player was drafted I don’t see a DT being a real option. If they can play they are hard to get. DT is really tough because they are so hard to draft

 

[conner01]

Given the option of a great oline and avg RB, or great RB and avg oline I’d go with the great oline. Any back can be effective if he’s getting 3 yards before contact. And oline is about the safest picks in the draft. Generally a good college g or ot is good in the nfl

So before the draft most were saying it is a deep class at RB, they can wait and get one. As any RB can run behind a great OL. So I been told on here for years.

But when they did not go RB early, they took a top plug and OL, the team screwed up according to those same fans.
They select Blue in a deep RB class. Now he probably won’t make it because he was a day 3 pick.

You all need to make up your minds. .

 

[Spottswoode]

It’s not “either or” or “all or nothing”. All drafts are shades of gray. All I did in this thread was show the math; what the “hit rate” is for Day 3 picks.

This thread is neither critical of the Cowboys nor praising them. It’s just what the averages show.

Because we tend to not use FA for higher priced players, I would assume that opens more possibilities for draft picks in all rounds to contribute. I would think if your primary source of team building is the draft, you would naturally have more draft picks reach starter status. That might partially explain why we have a slightly higher % of day 3 picks.

 

[Zman5]

Although all not here Jeff Swaim has had a nice career . Especially for a 7th round pick.

 

[Wildcat711]

Because we tend to not use FA for higher priced players, I would assume that opens more possibilities for draft picks in all rounds to contribute. I would think if your primary source of team building is the draft, you would naturally have more draft picks reach starter status. That might partially explain why we have a slightly higher % of day 3 picks.

You make a good point.

 

[Pass2Run]

Although all not here Jeff Swaim has had a nice career . Especially for a 7th round pick.

True.

 

[Bigrandrn]

Philly was looking at Blue tho.

FO should also be looking at DTs.

With Mazi, Thomas, OSA and this massive UCLA NT, they may have found their 4 tackles. We got like 6+ DE to decide from.

 

[Pass2Run]

With Mazi, Thomas, OSA and this massive UCLA NT, they may have found their 4 tackles. We got like 6+ DE to decide from.

Yeah, plus a couple new LBs and a new scheme. Would be nice to have Overshown back. But I don't want him to rush it.

 

[morasp]

I think Jay Toia can be a good space eater, the question is does he have the length to shed and tackle. They will probably get at least two starters from day three and two good backups.

 

[morasp]

So if Toia is in the DT rotation and plays well but doesn't start is he a hit?

 

[BoyzBlaster]

Another great (fact based) post. Thank you!

 

[charron]

With Mazi, Thomas, OSA and this massive UCLA NT, they may have found their 4 tackles. We got like 6+ DE to decide from.

Jerry's teams don't tend to like big NT's that don't have any rush ability. Can't say if it's Jerry or pretty much every single coordinator or both. Remember they finally signed hankins, improved the run defense but as cheap as he was he only lasted 1.5 years here with no replacement.

 

[fivetwos]

Jerry's teams don't tend to like big NT's that don't have any rush ability. Can't say if it's Jerry or pretty much every single coordinator or both. Remember they finally signed hankins, improved the run defense but as cheap as he was he only lasted 1.5 years here with no replacement.

It’s why this team has been night and day in playing with a lead vs behind.

The whole plan is about stopping the pass, which the opponent doesn’t need to do when ahead and can run it at will.

I get why they don’t value DT, but it’s a flawed theory…much like Parcells teaching them to take second round TEs when you already have a good starter, just not as severe.

Change? Haha no. They are set in their ways, failure notwithstanding. “We believe we have the secret sauce….”

Normal people learn from failure and fix it. These two are right…..end of story.

 

[Bobhaze]

So if Toia is in the DT rotation and plays well but doesn't start is he a hit?

Depends on for how long. A one year contributor, as in plays in the “rotation” for a year - I wouldn’t classify as a hit. A guy who stays here for the length of their rookie deal and becomes a starter…that’s a hit in my book.

Take Mazi for example. Starting his third year here. He has started on occasion and is still on the roster. Is he a hit? To me he has not achieved that term yet. I guess it’s somewhat subjective.

 

[montgod]

Maybe they were, maybe he wasn’t on their board at all….source?

My thoughts as well. Feel like using "X team was considering taking them" is a catch all for picks taken when it's looked as a possible reach or bad pick at times.

 

[John813]

Good post. Which is why for me I don't get invested that much on who they pick in day 3. The draft is a crapshoot, it becomes even longer odds as the days go from Thursday to Saturday. Feel like the top of the 4th is when teams can regroup and take those guys who someone slipped from should of been day 2 guys. 6th and 7th round picks are just securing priority free agents.

Ideally, day 1 pick is a starter/building block. Booker fits that.
Day 2 should also have starters, but may be a year of development. EZ and Revel fit that.
Day 3 to me, is the traits, potential, guys with flaws you hope with a prayer they can overcome type of picks that can be solid depth, role players or possibly diamond in the rough starter. Very rarely will you get a legit starter.

With running backs, I feel like one of Blue and/or Mafah, can provide solid play. Replaceable? Sure, but Blue has speed so he could be a good change of pace back. To be determined how Mafah can turnout, but worthy of a hail marry pick

 

[CCBoy]

I like Blue and I’m sure a lot of teams were looking at him. He’s just not going to be “the answer” at RB. He’s super fast and we need that but even at Texas he only averaged 12 touches a game.

I’m glad we have Blue and I believe he has lots of juice to help this offense. He just isn’t enough to “fix” this offense.

Tony Dorsett and with similar qualities as shown by Blue, was really unsuccessful because of a good offensive line?