beware_d-ware
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It's that time of year again! Before the draft starts, I'm going to post my predictions for how all the college players I've watched will do in the NFL, along with my reasons why. Did this in 2016, did it again in 2017, and we'll see how this year goes.
And this post ended up being a LOT longer than I thought it would be...
QBs
Josh Rosen is my QB1 for this year. He plays like an NFL QB dropped off into a college offense - makes all the pre-snap reads, throws with anticipation, unbelievable footwork, and he just repeatedly drills. I don't really care about the injuries, and I don't think his personality is as much of a negative as people say either. Rosen's a prick. So is Aaron Rodgers, so is Tom Brady. If you're a franchise QB, no one cares. And I think Rosen is this draft's only franchise QB.
Baker Mayfield is my QB2. I like his chances of making it overall, but he comes with more risk than Rosen does. Excellent accuracy, athletic, handles pressure well, and the size and arm strength don't worry me at all. What does worry me is A., Mayfield's Air Raid offense (the track record of Air Raid QBs has been dreadful) and B., his Manziel-esque cocky douchebag personality. Mayfield runs hot and likes to talk a lot crap and prove his doubters wrong. When you're winning Heisman trophies and playing for national titles, all that stuff is easy. When your team is 4th place in the division and every media outlet in the country is ripping on you, it's far harder to do. I wonder if this will cause him to implode
Sam Darnold is my QB3. I don't have him as franchise QB material, but I bet you he can be a decent starter. He's got some real flaws in my mind - he arm-punts a couple throws every game, his decision making can get careless, his Hot Wheels loop of a release telegraphs throws to the defense, and I don't think those issues are easily fixable. He's smart, tough, and has plenty of arm, so I bet you he'll be a decent pro QB. But I just think Rosen and Mayfield are more accurate and better decision makers, and those are 2 of my 3 big QB traits to look for (along with how well they handle the pass rush).
Lamar Jackson is my QB4. Dude's an athlete for sure, but he can't throw worth a damn, and skinny running QBs almost always get hurt. I think he's much more likely to bust than not. But if he lands on the right team, he's got a lot of upside. Supposedly, the Patriots like him. That one would be fun to see.
Josh Allen is my QB5, and is my lead-pipe lock for a draft bust this year. He just doesn't offer anything besides arm strength. Dude has no accuracy, doesn't read defenses pre-snap, and just street-balls it once the snap is in his hands. There's no repeatable process here, he's just winging it. Every year, teams fall in love with these big white QBs who can throw a football hard - Paxton Lynch, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Hackenberg, Jake Locker, the list goes on - thinking they can coach them up. How many of them actually do?
RBs
Saquon Barkley is going to be a stud. Right now, people are ripping on him, "oh, he doesn't get every yard blocked inside" "he doesn't run with power", etc. Reminds me of people nitpicking Myles Garrett last year. Don't overthink this stuff.
WRs
I'm just going to copy-paste my WR rankings from Cowboys Zone. Didn't rank DJ Chark cause I didn't watch tape on him, and and didn't rank EQ St. Brown cause I can't make up my mind on him.
1. DJ Moore. My rule of thumb is I don't bet against players with good tape and good measurables. Moore tested at a 97th percentile athlete and won the Big 10 receiving crown even with 8 different QBs throwing to him, so how's that for film and measurables? He projects as somewhere between Steve Smith and Stefon Diggs. Top 25 grade.
2. Courtland Sutton. This is an all-upside ranking, as 6'4" 215 wideouts with faster 3-cones than Julian Edelman basically don't exist. His physical tools are create-a-player level, and he could be a dominant #1 if he puts it all together. On tape though, he's a one-speed loper who runs 2-3 routes and just outjumps sub-NFL athletes. His film looks a lot more like Terrance Williams than Julio Jones, but the Julio-type tools are there. 1st-2nd route grade.
3. DaeSean Hamilton. Played as a Marques Colston style big slot in college, but may have the size to play outside in the pros. He's a mediocre athlete, but just separates effortlessly from defenders. IMO, he's the kind of route runner that everyone thinks Calvin Ridley is. He's just always open. 2nd round grade.
4. Anthony Miller. A sharp cutter who can do some damage after the catch. I think his size and the spread offense he played in in college projects him more towards the slot, where he's one of a zillion YAC-ey slot guys in this class. But he's the best of them all. 2nd round grade.
5. Calvin Ridley. Basically the less-athletic Anthony Miller. He's fast and has experience running pro-style routes, which is hard to find in this draft. But he's old at 24 and is an awful athlete. How many jump balls did you see him win at Bama? I think his rail-thin frame and lack of explosion pushes him into the slot, and that lowers his value greatly. 2nd-3rd round grade.
6. Michael Gallup. Kind of a jack of all trades, master of none. Athletic, but not a burner. A solid route runner, but not a virtuoso. Good at running after the catch, but not a Dez or Golden Tate type menace. His measurables say outside receiver, and those are in short supply in this draft class. 3rd round grade.
7. Dante Pettis: He's got a lot going for him - tall, good route runner, very quick, might be able to stick outside in the pros. Ultimately I think he'll end up in the slot, which again dampens his value. But he's a good football player. 3rd round grade.
8. Christian Kirk. Randall Cobb-ish slot guy. Small, sloppy at running routes, and not nearly as athletic as he was billed, but he can make things happen after the catch. 3rd round grade.
9. James Washington. One-trick pony. He's got dangerous build-up speed once he gets running, but he's a poor route runner and struggles with press coverage because he doesn't release well. Big 12 teams didn't press him, NFL teams are going to make sure to press the snot out of him on the line. 4th round grade.
TEs
Mike Gesicki is going to be a bust. He reminds me a lot of Gavin Escobar or Coby Fleener - kind of a one-speed strider without much explosion, and he can't block worth a lick. I don't think he is nearly as athletic on the field as he tested at the Combine.
LTs
Mike McGlinchey is going to be a good pro starter, but not a great one. He's a 4 year starter, which are rarer than hen's teeth nowadays, so he's got all the fundamentals down and has a ton of playing experience, which gives him a pretty high floor But he struggles with both elite speed and elite power, and that makes him a pretty tough sell as a franchise LT. I think he'll be a good longtime starter at RT, but I'm hearing top 15, even top 10 hype for him as a LT and I just don't see that at all.
Kolton Miller is going to be a bust. His Combine doesn't translate to the field, as he's a stiff mover who struggles with his kick-slides and also lacks power. Speed rushers get around him, bull rushers easily drive him back, and he gets no push in the run game. Just a workout warrior.
Gs
Quenton Nelson is going to be a stud. Easiest projection in the draft.
Will Hernandez is going to be a good starter, but I don't know if he'll be a great one. Dude is huge and has power for days, but I'm not sold on his athleticism when pulling out in space. He'll start for a long time, and probably do really well in a power-blocking scheme. But he's more Richie Incognito than Zack Martin. I don't think I'd take him at #19.
Cs
James Daniels is going to be a beast. Dude has some rare athleticism - you normally don't talk about an offensive lineman's speed jumping out on tape, but Daniels is fast as hell. His lateral agility lets him make blocks that most other linemen simply can't - I've even seen him reach block 3 techs. He picks off LBs downfield likes it's nothing, and I could see him being special in a ZBS. I don't really see the lack of strength that people complain about, and even if it is an issue - he's only 20! He's got plenty of time to get bigger and stronger.
DEs
Bradley Chubb is going to be a stud. Insane production, great athleticism, and polished technique. People are like "he's too stiff to be a top pass rusher", well, he bended well enough to destroy the ACC. He's going to be one of the NFL's best pass rushers, and he's one of three no risk, can't-miss blue clip prospects I have in this class (along with Barkley and Nelson).
Harold Landry is more system-dependent than Chubb, but I think he'll be a really good pass rusher as well. The two things I look for most with pass rushers are burst and bend, and Landry is absolutely elite at both. He's pretty a clone of Vic Beasley, and like Beasley, I think he's a double-digit sack guy if you just turn him loose on the edge. But like the Falcons showed last year, you get moving these 240 pound speed rushers around the formation, and it just doesn't work well. Landry's got the talent, but hes not system-proof or idiot-coach-proof like Chubb is.
Marcus Davenport is most likely going to bust. Just a big, straight-line rusher with no moves, who's 6'7" and plays standing straight up. The talent is there, but the fundamentals just aren't, and the learning curve is too long for me to be comfortable with thaking him.
Sam Hubbard has been my pet cat all offseason, and I think he's going to surprise some people. Physically, he's a near clone of Joey Bosa. Now he's not the same caliber of prospect as Bosa, but people were trashing Bosa coming out of Ohio State saying he's stiff, he can't bend the corner, then he gets out to the Chargers and proves that that's absoultely no issue at all. Hubbard had the fastest 3-cone among DEs and looks pretty damn nimble when he's turned loose on the edge, but here I am hearing the same cricticism about him. I would bet on him having a Bosa-type emergence as a pass rusher in the pros. Bet you now that he's going to be a better pro than college player.
DTs
Vita Vea is going to be the league's next Vince Wilfork or Haloti Ngata. They say that really talented running backs or receivers play at a different speed than everyone else on the field - Vea plays at a different strength than everyone else on the field. He can stonewall a double team without breaking a sweat. He can hold off a down-blocking guard with one arm. He pushes around 300 pound Pac-12 linemen like blocking dummies, and it's just ridiculous to see. And I wouldn't call him a great pass rusher, but he's better than you'd expect for a 350 pound NT. Talented 2-gappers like Vea make the whole defense around them better, and I think he's going to be a plus-plus-plus run stuffer and good pocket pusher on likely a very good front seven.
Mo Hurst is a big unknown right now with his heart issue. But if he's on the field, then I think he's going to be one of the best defenders in this class. Dude is a super-fast gap shooter with uncommon power for an upfield 3T. He packs way more of a punch than you think for 290 pounds, and I keep hearing all this stuff about how he gets pushed around in the run game, but I see just the opposite on tape. He's a good plugger. There are shades of Geno Atkins or Aaron Donald to his game. He's my #2 DT, and if his medicals check out, I think he'll be a steal. Of course, he could get Nick Fairley'd and his career could end even before it even starts. I just don't know.
Da'Ron Payne is a wrecking ball against the run, but I'm not high on him as a pass rusher. Plays high, doesn't really have any moves, and his effort comes and goes. I think he'll end up as an A'Shawn Robinson type player - a good stuffer to have on your team, but I don't think he's a top 20 talent.
Harrison Phillips is going to be a mediocre rotational stuffer. On paper, he looks big, athletic and productive, but on tape, he doesn't get much of a pass rush and just goes to the ground left and right. Not quick enough to pass rush in a 4-3, not strong and balanced enough to stuff in a 3-4, I think he's just a rotational player.
Derrick Nnadi is my late round DT to watch. Not a great athlete, offers zero pass rush upside, but he run stuffs like an animal. Just a joy to watch wrestle linemen inside. I bet you he turns into a Terrell McClain type player.
LBs
Tremaine Edmunds is the LB version of Tyron Smith, and like Tyron, I wouldn't be surprised if he's eventually an All-Pro. He's an absolutely unreal physical talent - 19 years old and already the most athletic LB in this class - and he's already super productive. Now if he busts, it's going to be because of his instincts, he misreads a lot of plays. But still - age wise, he's a freaking freshman. If he was 22 years old and going into the draft, I might actually put him in the bust category becaue I hate LBs without instincts. But I am going to bet on a 19 year old kid being able to pick that all up and put it together. Top 10 grade from me.
Roquan Smith is a clone of Lavonte David or Telvin Smith. He needs to go onto the right defense that keeps him covered up and lets him run to the ball, but if he gets there, he's going to be a run-and-hit machine. On the wrong defense, he could be a really mediocre player - he'll be good in coverage, but will get ran over by blockers if the defense doesn't protect him or tries to square-peg him as a block-shedding Mike.
Leighton Vander Esch is going to be one of the NFL's better MLBs. As I said earlier, my rule of thumb is that I don't bet against player with good tape and good measurables. LVE won conference defensive player of the year and put up Combine measurables nearly identical to Brian Urlacher. So yeah, I'm a fan. LVE's got instincts, he's got all the physical traits in the world, and he looks natural dropping into zone. The only thing holding him back IMO, is that he plays small and doesn't really use his frame to bully around blockers, so he doesn't hammer against the run like you think a 257 pound Mike would. Usually the elite LBs that don't have that are supernaturally good at reading the play and cutting off blockers ahead of time, like Lee or Kuechly, and LVE's just not on that kind of level. But still, he's going to stop the run wide, he's going to cover really well, he's going to be a great player.
Rashaan Evans is going to be a mediocre inside banger. Dude is fast and violent when taking on blocks, but seems slow to diagnose and mediocre in coverage. I hate LBs that lack instincts, and I hate LBs that can't cover, so it's hard for me to be optimistic about Evans' pro projections. He'll probably find a home taking on blockers inside in a 3-4, but I don't think he'll be more than an average player.
CBs
Denzel Ward is going to be a stud. Ultra-athletic, great technqiue, awesome tape. I don't think being 5'11" is going to slow him down at all. He's going to be a plug-and-play Day 1 starter and will likely end up making some Pro Bowls.
S
Minkah Fitzpatrick is going to be a stud. Moreso than the college production, moreso than the athleticism, the biggest sign that he's going to be a great pro is his relentless perfectionism and work ethic. You take a guy that talented and that driven, and there's no way I'm betting against him.
I'm getting kind of tired of saying it now, but Derwin James is going to be a stud. Guess I just really like this draft class. Ridiculous athleticism and a 5 yard turbo-button when closing that's going to make him a tackle machine at SS. Or at nickel corner. Or at WLB. Or at whatever the hell he wants to play.
Justin Reid is going to be a very good starter. He's not really elite at any one thing, but he's a smart 95th percentile athlete who's pretty good at everything. FS, SS, slot corner, he can do it all. Just a good football player. Plug him in in the backfield and forget about him until his rookie contract is up.
Ronnie Harrison is going to be an average starter. He's big, fast, and can hit, but he's not a great football player IMO, doesn't have much feel in coverage. Day 1 downhill SS but not really a difference maker. I'd take him in the second.
I've heard the Cowboys like Tarvarious Moore, but that dude is trash. Great athlete with zero instincts or play awareness, plus sometimes iffy effort. He reminds me a ton of JJ Wilcox.
And this post ended up being a LOT longer than I thought it would be...
QBs
Josh Rosen is my QB1 for this year. He plays like an NFL QB dropped off into a college offense - makes all the pre-snap reads, throws with anticipation, unbelievable footwork, and he just repeatedly drills. I don't really care about the injuries, and I don't think his personality is as much of a negative as people say either. Rosen's a prick. So is Aaron Rodgers, so is Tom Brady. If you're a franchise QB, no one cares. And I think Rosen is this draft's only franchise QB.
Baker Mayfield is my QB2. I like his chances of making it overall, but he comes with more risk than Rosen does. Excellent accuracy, athletic, handles pressure well, and the size and arm strength don't worry me at all. What does worry me is A., Mayfield's Air Raid offense (the track record of Air Raid QBs has been dreadful) and B., his Manziel-esque cocky douchebag personality. Mayfield runs hot and likes to talk a lot crap and prove his doubters wrong. When you're winning Heisman trophies and playing for national titles, all that stuff is easy. When your team is 4th place in the division and every media outlet in the country is ripping on you, it's far harder to do. I wonder if this will cause him to implode
Sam Darnold is my QB3. I don't have him as franchise QB material, but I bet you he can be a decent starter. He's got some real flaws in my mind - he arm-punts a couple throws every game, his decision making can get careless, his Hot Wheels loop of a release telegraphs throws to the defense, and I don't think those issues are easily fixable. He's smart, tough, and has plenty of arm, so I bet you he'll be a decent pro QB. But I just think Rosen and Mayfield are more accurate and better decision makers, and those are 2 of my 3 big QB traits to look for (along with how well they handle the pass rush).
Lamar Jackson is my QB4. Dude's an athlete for sure, but he can't throw worth a damn, and skinny running QBs almost always get hurt. I think he's much more likely to bust than not. But if he lands on the right team, he's got a lot of upside. Supposedly, the Patriots like him. That one would be fun to see.
Josh Allen is my QB5, and is my lead-pipe lock for a draft bust this year. He just doesn't offer anything besides arm strength. Dude has no accuracy, doesn't read defenses pre-snap, and just street-balls it once the snap is in his hands. There's no repeatable process here, he's just winging it. Every year, teams fall in love with these big white QBs who can throw a football hard - Paxton Lynch, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Hackenberg, Jake Locker, the list goes on - thinking they can coach them up. How many of them actually do?
RBs
Saquon Barkley is going to be a stud. Right now, people are ripping on him, "oh, he doesn't get every yard blocked inside" "he doesn't run with power", etc. Reminds me of people nitpicking Myles Garrett last year. Don't overthink this stuff.
WRs
I'm just going to copy-paste my WR rankings from Cowboys Zone. Didn't rank DJ Chark cause I didn't watch tape on him, and and didn't rank EQ St. Brown cause I can't make up my mind on him.
1. DJ Moore. My rule of thumb is I don't bet against players with good tape and good measurables. Moore tested at a 97th percentile athlete and won the Big 10 receiving crown even with 8 different QBs throwing to him, so how's that for film and measurables? He projects as somewhere between Steve Smith and Stefon Diggs. Top 25 grade.
2. Courtland Sutton. This is an all-upside ranking, as 6'4" 215 wideouts with faster 3-cones than Julian Edelman basically don't exist. His physical tools are create-a-player level, and he could be a dominant #1 if he puts it all together. On tape though, he's a one-speed loper who runs 2-3 routes and just outjumps sub-NFL athletes. His film looks a lot more like Terrance Williams than Julio Jones, but the Julio-type tools are there. 1st-2nd route grade.
3. DaeSean Hamilton. Played as a Marques Colston style big slot in college, but may have the size to play outside in the pros. He's a mediocre athlete, but just separates effortlessly from defenders. IMO, he's the kind of route runner that everyone thinks Calvin Ridley is. He's just always open. 2nd round grade.
4. Anthony Miller. A sharp cutter who can do some damage after the catch. I think his size and the spread offense he played in in college projects him more towards the slot, where he's one of a zillion YAC-ey slot guys in this class. But he's the best of them all. 2nd round grade.
5. Calvin Ridley. Basically the less-athletic Anthony Miller. He's fast and has experience running pro-style routes, which is hard to find in this draft. But he's old at 24 and is an awful athlete. How many jump balls did you see him win at Bama? I think his rail-thin frame and lack of explosion pushes him into the slot, and that lowers his value greatly. 2nd-3rd round grade.
6. Michael Gallup. Kind of a jack of all trades, master of none. Athletic, but not a burner. A solid route runner, but not a virtuoso. Good at running after the catch, but not a Dez or Golden Tate type menace. His measurables say outside receiver, and those are in short supply in this draft class. 3rd round grade.
7. Dante Pettis: He's got a lot going for him - tall, good route runner, very quick, might be able to stick outside in the pros. Ultimately I think he'll end up in the slot, which again dampens his value. But he's a good football player. 3rd round grade.
8. Christian Kirk. Randall Cobb-ish slot guy. Small, sloppy at running routes, and not nearly as athletic as he was billed, but he can make things happen after the catch. 3rd round grade.
9. James Washington. One-trick pony. He's got dangerous build-up speed once he gets running, but he's a poor route runner and struggles with press coverage because he doesn't release well. Big 12 teams didn't press him, NFL teams are going to make sure to press the snot out of him on the line. 4th round grade.
TEs
Mike Gesicki is going to be a bust. He reminds me a lot of Gavin Escobar or Coby Fleener - kind of a one-speed strider without much explosion, and he can't block worth a lick. I don't think he is nearly as athletic on the field as he tested at the Combine.
LTs
Mike McGlinchey is going to be a good pro starter, but not a great one. He's a 4 year starter, which are rarer than hen's teeth nowadays, so he's got all the fundamentals down and has a ton of playing experience, which gives him a pretty high floor But he struggles with both elite speed and elite power, and that makes him a pretty tough sell as a franchise LT. I think he'll be a good longtime starter at RT, but I'm hearing top 15, even top 10 hype for him as a LT and I just don't see that at all.
Kolton Miller is going to be a bust. His Combine doesn't translate to the field, as he's a stiff mover who struggles with his kick-slides and also lacks power. Speed rushers get around him, bull rushers easily drive him back, and he gets no push in the run game. Just a workout warrior.
Gs
Quenton Nelson is going to be a stud. Easiest projection in the draft.
Will Hernandez is going to be a good starter, but I don't know if he'll be a great one. Dude is huge and has power for days, but I'm not sold on his athleticism when pulling out in space. He'll start for a long time, and probably do really well in a power-blocking scheme. But he's more Richie Incognito than Zack Martin. I don't think I'd take him at #19.
Cs
James Daniels is going to be a beast. Dude has some rare athleticism - you normally don't talk about an offensive lineman's speed jumping out on tape, but Daniels is fast as hell. His lateral agility lets him make blocks that most other linemen simply can't - I've even seen him reach block 3 techs. He picks off LBs downfield likes it's nothing, and I could see him being special in a ZBS. I don't really see the lack of strength that people complain about, and even if it is an issue - he's only 20! He's got plenty of time to get bigger and stronger.
DEs
Bradley Chubb is going to be a stud. Insane production, great athleticism, and polished technique. People are like "he's too stiff to be a top pass rusher", well, he bended well enough to destroy the ACC. He's going to be one of the NFL's best pass rushers, and he's one of three no risk, can't-miss blue clip prospects I have in this class (along with Barkley and Nelson).
Harold Landry is more system-dependent than Chubb, but I think he'll be a really good pass rusher as well. The two things I look for most with pass rushers are burst and bend, and Landry is absolutely elite at both. He's pretty a clone of Vic Beasley, and like Beasley, I think he's a double-digit sack guy if you just turn him loose on the edge. But like the Falcons showed last year, you get moving these 240 pound speed rushers around the formation, and it just doesn't work well. Landry's got the talent, but hes not system-proof or idiot-coach-proof like Chubb is.
Marcus Davenport is most likely going to bust. Just a big, straight-line rusher with no moves, who's 6'7" and plays standing straight up. The talent is there, but the fundamentals just aren't, and the learning curve is too long for me to be comfortable with thaking him.
Sam Hubbard has been my pet cat all offseason, and I think he's going to surprise some people. Physically, he's a near clone of Joey Bosa. Now he's not the same caliber of prospect as Bosa, but people were trashing Bosa coming out of Ohio State saying he's stiff, he can't bend the corner, then he gets out to the Chargers and proves that that's absoultely no issue at all. Hubbard had the fastest 3-cone among DEs and looks pretty damn nimble when he's turned loose on the edge, but here I am hearing the same cricticism about him. I would bet on him having a Bosa-type emergence as a pass rusher in the pros. Bet you now that he's going to be a better pro than college player.
DTs
Vita Vea is going to be the league's next Vince Wilfork or Haloti Ngata. They say that really talented running backs or receivers play at a different speed than everyone else on the field - Vea plays at a different strength than everyone else on the field. He can stonewall a double team without breaking a sweat. He can hold off a down-blocking guard with one arm. He pushes around 300 pound Pac-12 linemen like blocking dummies, and it's just ridiculous to see. And I wouldn't call him a great pass rusher, but he's better than you'd expect for a 350 pound NT. Talented 2-gappers like Vea make the whole defense around them better, and I think he's going to be a plus-plus-plus run stuffer and good pocket pusher on likely a very good front seven.
Mo Hurst is a big unknown right now with his heart issue. But if he's on the field, then I think he's going to be one of the best defenders in this class. Dude is a super-fast gap shooter with uncommon power for an upfield 3T. He packs way more of a punch than you think for 290 pounds, and I keep hearing all this stuff about how he gets pushed around in the run game, but I see just the opposite on tape. He's a good plugger. There are shades of Geno Atkins or Aaron Donald to his game. He's my #2 DT, and if his medicals check out, I think he'll be a steal. Of course, he could get Nick Fairley'd and his career could end even before it even starts. I just don't know.
Da'Ron Payne is a wrecking ball against the run, but I'm not high on him as a pass rusher. Plays high, doesn't really have any moves, and his effort comes and goes. I think he'll end up as an A'Shawn Robinson type player - a good stuffer to have on your team, but I don't think he's a top 20 talent.
Harrison Phillips is going to be a mediocre rotational stuffer. On paper, he looks big, athletic and productive, but on tape, he doesn't get much of a pass rush and just goes to the ground left and right. Not quick enough to pass rush in a 4-3, not strong and balanced enough to stuff in a 3-4, I think he's just a rotational player.
Derrick Nnadi is my late round DT to watch. Not a great athlete, offers zero pass rush upside, but he run stuffs like an animal. Just a joy to watch wrestle linemen inside. I bet you he turns into a Terrell McClain type player.
LBs
Tremaine Edmunds is the LB version of Tyron Smith, and like Tyron, I wouldn't be surprised if he's eventually an All-Pro. He's an absolutely unreal physical talent - 19 years old and already the most athletic LB in this class - and he's already super productive. Now if he busts, it's going to be because of his instincts, he misreads a lot of plays. But still - age wise, he's a freaking freshman. If he was 22 years old and going into the draft, I might actually put him in the bust category becaue I hate LBs without instincts. But I am going to bet on a 19 year old kid being able to pick that all up and put it together. Top 10 grade from me.
Roquan Smith is a clone of Lavonte David or Telvin Smith. He needs to go onto the right defense that keeps him covered up and lets him run to the ball, but if he gets there, he's going to be a run-and-hit machine. On the wrong defense, he could be a really mediocre player - he'll be good in coverage, but will get ran over by blockers if the defense doesn't protect him or tries to square-peg him as a block-shedding Mike.
Leighton Vander Esch is going to be one of the NFL's better MLBs. As I said earlier, my rule of thumb is that I don't bet against player with good tape and good measurables. LVE won conference defensive player of the year and put up Combine measurables nearly identical to Brian Urlacher. So yeah, I'm a fan. LVE's got instincts, he's got all the physical traits in the world, and he looks natural dropping into zone. The only thing holding him back IMO, is that he plays small and doesn't really use his frame to bully around blockers, so he doesn't hammer against the run like you think a 257 pound Mike would. Usually the elite LBs that don't have that are supernaturally good at reading the play and cutting off blockers ahead of time, like Lee or Kuechly, and LVE's just not on that kind of level. But still, he's going to stop the run wide, he's going to cover really well, he's going to be a great player.
Rashaan Evans is going to be a mediocre inside banger. Dude is fast and violent when taking on blocks, but seems slow to diagnose and mediocre in coverage. I hate LBs that lack instincts, and I hate LBs that can't cover, so it's hard for me to be optimistic about Evans' pro projections. He'll probably find a home taking on blockers inside in a 3-4, but I don't think he'll be more than an average player.
CBs
Denzel Ward is going to be a stud. Ultra-athletic, great technqiue, awesome tape. I don't think being 5'11" is going to slow him down at all. He's going to be a plug-and-play Day 1 starter and will likely end up making some Pro Bowls.
S
Minkah Fitzpatrick is going to be a stud. Moreso than the college production, moreso than the athleticism, the biggest sign that he's going to be a great pro is his relentless perfectionism and work ethic. You take a guy that talented and that driven, and there's no way I'm betting against him.
I'm getting kind of tired of saying it now, but Derwin James is going to be a stud. Guess I just really like this draft class. Ridiculous athleticism and a 5 yard turbo-button when closing that's going to make him a tackle machine at SS. Or at nickel corner. Or at WLB. Or at whatever the hell he wants to play.
Justin Reid is going to be a very good starter. He's not really elite at any one thing, but he's a smart 95th percentile athlete who's pretty good at everything. FS, SS, slot corner, he can do it all. Just a good football player. Plug him in in the backfield and forget about him until his rookie contract is up.
Ronnie Harrison is going to be an average starter. He's big, fast, and can hit, but he's not a great football player IMO, doesn't have much feel in coverage. Day 1 downhill SS but not really a difference maker. I'd take him in the second.
I've heard the Cowboys like Tarvarious Moore, but that dude is trash. Great athlete with zero instincts or play awareness, plus sometimes iffy effort. He reminds me a ton of JJ Wilcox.
