Recommended Loss Forensics: Romo vs. the League's Top QB

[DallasEast]

In keeping with the logical fallacies permeating the thread, the hair colors from left to right are green, blue, yellow, and violet.

 

[Idgit]

I want no part of the back and forth, but being a stat guy, correlation does not imply causation. The honey bee population decline and the 10 yr US Treasury are highly correlated in math. For a stat to truly be linked to causation, there need to be pvalue, t stat, f tests, etc.

The winning % is not correlation. The correlation formula has to do with 2 data sets and deviation around a mean.

Don't mean to be a jerk, it is just sore spot when correlation is used as not intended

Good stuff. You have to admit, though, if you had a lever that controlled honeybee population, you'd be tempted to pull it to see what it might do to the treasury.

Correlation doesn't imply causation, but it doesn't rule it out, either. If all it does is suggest a possible cause, absent better options, you're going to see teams test it out.

 

[birdwells1]

just thought I would throw some more sand in the eyes of the haters like KJJ


Source: SB Nation
Time: Jul 10 4:00 PM ET



Myths about Tony Romo being a choke artist get debunked routinely, so someone created the "elimination games" stat. Here is a closer look at that "statistical proof" and a new stat for "playoff hunt" games.

I always laugh at the "statistical proof" used to define Tony Romo's ability in big games...excuse me, elimination games. When an undrafted rookie rises to the helm of the Dallas Cowboys and becomes one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the league, you have a cornucopia of factors that are sure to create drama and inspire the anti-Cowboys nation. At every turn, memes and myths would pop up taking shots at Romo's abilities, and BTB (and other media sources) would often disprove those fallacies in short order. First, it was claimed that Romo's statistical superiority didn't matter because he couldn't get it done in the fourth-quarter. Then it became about Romo not being able to play well in the important games late in the season. But the truth shall set you free...

Romo ranks sixth among active QBs for the most fourth-quarter comebacks - playing fewer games than anyone ahead of him on that list and those below him on the Top 10 list
Romo ranks ninth among active QBs for the most game winning drives - again, playing fewer games than those above him on the list
Romo has had phenomenal fourth-quarter QB ratings. This 2012 article states his 102.1 QB rating in the fourth-quarter is the best in the league, considerably surpassing the elite QBs like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. His 2012 rating (101.2) and 2013 rating (105.6) means he is likely still the best in the league in the fourth-quarter.
In games in Dec. and Jan. Romo has 63.3 completion % and 50 TD vs. 29 INT
So after all these previous myths were debunked, the national media create a new statistic to show viewers why they had been badmouthing Tony Romo...the elimination game stat. This is a collection of data from seven games in Romo's 100+ game starts. It includes four playoff games and three Week 17 matchups that determined whether the Cowboys would make it to or progress in the playoffs.

What it does not include are games like the Week 17 domination over the Eagles in '09 because the Cowboys 11-5 record didn't demand a victory to make the playoffs. A game, where coincidentally, Romo had a great performance does not get included because despite it being the final week of the season against a division rival that you would see again in the wild card playoff round, and despite the fact it determined who would become the NFC East champ...a loss would not have eliminated the Cowboys from the playoffs, so it is apparently unimportant.

For the sake of time, let's breeze past my adamant objections to terms like "big games" and "chokes when it matters" being used based off of this ‘elimination game data set.' Because every game in a 16-game schedule holds important playoff ramifications, and matchups against division rivals are "big games," and nationally televised games are "big games," and week 15 and 16 games that must be won to keep your team in the playoff hunt are "big games," and matchups to clinch a playoff spot are "big games," and week 17 matchups for the division crown are "big games." So, let's just ignore the problem with this definition of important elimination games, which boils down to a limited data set used as empirical evidence to one of the greatest intangibles in sports.

Let's just concentrate on the limited scope of this great derogatory myth, because even that makes me laugh.

Used "properly," this data set will show you that Romo in big games - sorry, did it again, elimination games - just can't win and is a choke artist. You can point to seven interceptions in those seven "most important games," top it off by including a few sack fumbles, wrap it in a bow highlighting the 1-6 W/L record...and there you go!

"Statistical proof" that Romo just can't win the games that matter most:

ELIMINATION GAMESCmpAttCmp%TDINT
2006 Playoffs vs SEA17 29 58.6% 1 0
2007 Playoffs vs NYG18 36 50.0% 1 1
2008 WK17 vs PHI21 39 53.9% 0 1
2009 Playoffs vs PHI23 35 65.7% 2 0
2009 Playoffs vs MIN22 35 62.9% 0 1
2011 WK17 vs NYG29 37 78.4% 2 1
2012 WK17 vs WAS20 37 54.1% 2 3
Totals15024860.5%87
There are many reasons a QB can struggle in a game, including bad weather, an old offensive-line breaking down and getting abused by the defense, and wide-receivers dropping wide open passes that could lead to TDs and wins. But let's ignore the fact that in his worst games on this list Romo had to overcome these kinds of factors. Is a QB with over 60% completions and more TDs than INTs really choking in those games? Sure, this small sample size averages out below Romo's career averages, but is it proof Romo will not be able to win when it matters? The Cowboys only won one of these games. Can you count more games where Romo's performance was certainly good enough to lead his team to victory?

Now, let's have some fun with numbers and show why this small sample set is ridiculous. I am going to add some games and rename this the stat for "Playoff Hunt Games." We will still include all the elimination games, but also add games that clinched a playoff spot or won the division crown. Let's see what happens...

PLAYOFF HUNT GAMESCmpAttCmp%TDINT
Elimination Games15024860.5%87
2006 Clinch Wk15 vs ATL222975.9%21
2007 Clinch WK13 vs GB193063.3%41
2009 Clinch WK16 vs WAS253865.8%21
2009 WinDiv Wk17 vs PHI243470.6%21
Totals24037963.3%1811
As you can clearly see, when the Dallas Cowboys are playing games to clinch a playoff spot, win a division title, or progress into the playoffs, Tony Romo is phenomenal with a 63.3 completion % throwing 18 TD vs. 11 INT. See how fun it is to play with numbers and small sample sizes for statistical proof? Can you imagine what would happen if we started including all the must-win games where Romo led the Cowboys to victory so that those Week 17 elimination games even mattered?

If anyone thinks the Cowboys can't make it to or win in the playoffs because of Romo, then they simply haven't seen enough of his games to know better. So whenever someone tells you Romo is a choke artist when it matters, you now have even more statistical proof to let them now they are wrong... Romo's Playoff Hunt Games stat.

Actually this article basically proves what some of us have been saying, when there's more chances to make up for a loss Tony plays loose but when
It's win or go home he tightens up. Playoff hunt games are not far away from the elimination game so why the big disparity in the performances, I do see that most of the playoff hunt games were at home and the elimination games are on the road maybe that's the difference.

 

[Brooksey]

They believe in their hearts which can override any rational thinking that might be going on inside their head. There's a collection of sports fans who operate with their head (intellectually) and those who operate with their heart (emotionally) and a few who go with their gut. People who make the best decisions typically operate from all three. Your mind, emotions and intuition should all be cooperating and working together to formulate a reality-based plan from which you can operate. The problem on FAN boards is they're heavily populated with homers who operate strictly with their heart which results in a conflict between them and those who are realists. If a FAN is torn between what their head is saying and what their heart is saying they'll go with their heart.

Every person has intuition that feeling about something but FANS here don't don't pay attention to any negative feeling they may have in their gut or what their head may be telling them they continue to go with their heart that gets broken every year by the Cowboys. They only want to see the good in Romo and if anyone mentions his negatives (which some are clearly in denial over) whether it be a fan here or someone in the media they cry foul. I've seen well respected broadcasters like Al Michaels and Brent Musberger get ripped to shreds by FANS on this board because of a less than glowing opinion they had of the Cowboys.

We see it all the time on this board someone in the media being called out as a hater by a FAN because of an honest, candid opinion they had of the team or Romo that was deemed negative. The stats/passer ratings/rankings that are posted on Romo by percy and others have brainwashed a lot of FANS into believing Romo is a better QB than some HOF QB's including two QB's that have 22 playoff wins between them and led the Cowboys to 5 SB championships. Romo is a very good QB and everyone agrees but as Parcells said years ago he has some warts and he still has them.

KJJ, you're having a meltdown, take a breather. I can't believe you're still going.

We all saw the picks, It doesn't mean Romo can't win the big one or win playoff games down the road, so what's the point? . Let go of your anger and hate, those games are over.

If you choose to see Romo as a choker that's fine...it's not much of an optimistic view as a fan but hey good luck with that.

 

[KJJ]

KJJ, you're having a meltdown, take a breather. I can't believe you're still going.

We all saw the picks, It doesn't mean Romo can't win the big one or win playoff games down the road, so what's the point? . Let go of your anger and hate, those games are over.

If you choose to see Romo as a choker that's fine...it's not much of an optimistic view as a fan but hey good luck with that.

There's one guy in here who's having a meltdown from all the BS he's posting. LOL It's amazing what happens to some when you point out facts about Romo. There's no anger or hate in my comments the anger and hate is coming from others. Looking at the team and considering his offseason back surgery it's going to be tough for Romo to win a playoff game down the road. The clock is ticking and if it doesn't work out with Garrett in 2014 the Cowboys will be starting over next year with another HC. By the way I didn't say Romo was a choker it's a label he's been given and it wasn't by me.

 

[TheDude]

Good stuff. You have to admit, though, if you had a lever that controlled honeybee population, you'd be tempted to pull it to see what it might do to the treasury.

Correlation doesn't imply causation, but it doesn't rule it out, either. If all it does is suggest a possible cause, absent better options, you're going to see teams test it out.

Maybe after I refinance again, im good with 2.5% 10yr yield. Plus its supporting the equity market levels. i need to rebalance to short ETFs then i'll be happy up to my eyeballs in honeybees

But to your point, it doesn't rule it out either, true. I thought about doing a multiple regression factor analysis or pca around this, but I dont think there is enough data (sample size) in the thread to get a statistically significant factor (i.e. p<0.05%). The larger the correlation the stronger the relationship, the lower the pvalue, the stronger the relationship

 

[Idgit]

Maybe after I refinance again, im good with 2.5% 10yr yield. Plus its supporting the equity market levels. i need to rebalance to short ETFs then i'll be happy up to my eyeballs in honeybees

But to your point, it doesn't rule it out either, true. I thought about doing a multiple regression factor analysis or pca around this, but I dont think there is enough data (sample size) in the thread to get a statistically significant factor (i.e. p<0.05%). The larger the correlation the stronger the relationship, the lower the pvalue, the stronger the relationship

Way beyond my grad school stats recollections, but I appreciate the mathiness of that last sentence.

 

[Alexander]

Seriously???? People are still debating this? I guess the anti-Romo crowd will learn how fortunate we have been to have Romo when we go back into QB purgatory in a few years.

This is one thing that literally amazes me.

We live in fear of life Post-Romo. Like it means the end of the ability to win anything and he is the one thing that allows this team to win a game, any game.

A QB is extremely hard to find. But not impossible.



Nevermind.

This message is brought to you by Diet Dr. Pepper.

 

[TheDude]

Way beyond my grad school stats recollections, but I appreciate the mathiness of that last sentence.

typo.

The larger the correlation the stronger the relationship, the lower the pvalue, the more significant the relationship

 

[TheDude]

This is one thing that literally amazes me.

We live in fear of life Post-Romo. Like it means the end of the ability to win anything and he is the one thing that allows this team to win a game, any game.

A QB is extremely hard to find. But not impossible.



Nevermind.

This message is brought to you by Diet Dr. Pepper.

Yea, post-Romo scares me because there hasn't been a minor league Baseball player start at QB for Dallas (or NFL) for a decade. I think some may think "Well, it's due"

 

[birdwells1]

This is one thing that literally amazes me.

We live in fear of life Post-Romo. Like it means the end of the ability to win anything and he is the one thing that allows this team to win a game, any game.

A QB hard to find. But not impossible.

Nevermind.

This message is brought to you by Diet Dr. Pepper.

I agree, If you find one In the draft that's decent you can actually strenghten the rest of your team. With the rookie wage scale you might be able to get someone like Wilson and if the rest of your team is good then you might be able to go deep into the playoffs.

 

[Alexander]

Yea, post-Romo scares me because there hasn't been a minor league Baseball player start at QB for Dallas (or NFL) for a decade. I think some may think "Well, it's due"

Weeden played baseball. We are already ahead of the game.

 

[TheDude]

Yea, post-Romo scares me because there hasn't been a minor league Baseball player start at QB for a decade. I think some may think "Well, it's due"

Weeden played baseball. We are already ahead of the game.

I forgot that,

I love those epiphany moments when a picture totally clears up.

 

[DanteEXT]

There's one guy in here who's having a meltdown from all the BS he's posting. LOL It's amazing what happens to some when you point out facts about Romo. There's no anger or hate in my comments the anger and hate is coming from others. Looking at the team and considering his offseason back surgery it's going to be tough for Romo to win a playoff game down the road. The clock is ticking and if it doesn't work out with Garrett in 2014 the Cowboys will be starting over next year with another HC. By the way I didn't say Romo was a choker it's a label he's been given and it wasn't by me.

Yeah, reading this thread I sure as heck don't sense any anger from their posts when debating you... maybe laughter, possibly sympathy. But not anger.

 

[CCBoy]

Dante...I look upon yourself as a natural resource, but there is only so much dead horse kicking that this fan can stomach. I think it has something to do with sportsmanship.

 

[gimmesix]

There's only a few games that have given Romo a reputation as a choke artist just like there were only a few games that gave Roger Staubach and Joe Montana the reputation for being clutch. It comes down how big were the games that a QB choked in and how big were the games they were clutch in. The bigger the game the bigger the impact on a QB's reputation.

OK, let's look at Staubach in his final games of the season that did not end up with Super Bowl victories.

In 1972, Dallas' season ended with a 26-3 playoff loss to Washington in which Staubach was 9-20 for 98 yards, no TDs, no ints.

In 1973, Dallas' season ended with a 27-10 playoff loss to Minnesota, in which Staubach was 10-21 for 89 yards, no TDs and 4 ints.

In 1974, Dallas didn't make the playoffs, losing in its final game to Oakland 27-23 with Staubach 17-39 (43.1 percent) for 266 yards, no TDs, no ints.

In 1975, against Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl, Staubach was 15 of 24 for 204 yards, 2 TDs and 3 ints. in a 21-17 loss.

in 1976, Dallas was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by Los Angeles, losing 14-12 with Staubach 15-37 for 150 yards, 0 TDs, 4 ints.

In 1979, Dallas lost in the first round of the playoffs to LA and Staubach was 12-28 for 124 yards, 1 TD, 1 int.

In fact, the only playoff game where Staubach was "clutch" and Dallas lost was the 1978 Super Bowl against Pittsburgh, when he completed 17-30 with 3 TDs and 1 int.

Just think how many Super Bowls Dallas would have won if Staubach hadn't choked! In fact, based on the evidence that only two of his seasons ended in Super Bowl victories, that means he's only 2-7 in "final elimination" games, so that means his "reputation for being clutch" is undeserved. Get that man out of the Hall of Fame!

 

[DallasEast]

OK, let's look at Staubach in his final games of the season that did not end up with Super Bowl victories.

In 1972, Dallas' season ended with a 26-3 playoff loss to Washington in which Staubach was 9-20 for 98 yards, no TDs, no ints.

In 1973, Dallas' season ended with a 27-10 playoff loss to Minnesota, in which Staubach was 10-21 for 89 yards, no TDs and 4 ints.

In 1974, Dallas didn't make the playoffs, losing in its final game to Oakland 27-23 with Staubach 17-39 (43.1 percent) for 266 yards, no TDs, no ints.

In 1975, against Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl, Staubach was 15 of 24 for 204 yards, 2 TDs and 3 ints. in a 21-17 loss.

in 1976, Dallas was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by Los Angeles, losing 14-12 with Staubach 15-37 for 150 yards, 0 TDs, 4 ints.

In 1979, Dallas lost in the first round of the playoffs to LA and Staubach was 12-28 for 124 yards, 1 TD, 1 int.

In fact, the only playoff game where Staubach was "clutch" and Dallas lost was the 1978 Super Bowl against Pittsburgh, when he completed 17-30 with 3 TDs and 1 int.

Just think how many Super Bowls Dallas would have won if Staubach hadn't choked! In fact, based on the evidence that only two of his seasons ended in Super Bowl victories, that means he's only 2-7 in "final elimination" games, so that means his "reputation for being clutch" is undeserved. Get that man out of the Hall of Fame!

My first thought was that the upcoming reply will be interesting. Then I realized the reply shall be the same-old same-old. What would I know anyway? I'm just a FAN FAN FAN FAN FAN FAN FAN FAN

Dang it. Keyboard stuck.

 

[percyhoward]

Staubach was great on the road in the playoffs. In fact, he was probably the best road playoff QB of all time. In six road playoff games, he compiled a 95.5 rating, which was 35 points higher than the average of his era.

To put that in perspective, it would be like putting up a 120 rating over six road playoff games today.

The Cowboys were 5-1 in those games, thanks in large part to Staubach's performances. Winning on the road in the playoffs is not easy, even if you've got a complete team. Compare Dallas' record with Staubach to these QB's teams:

Aikman 1-4
Brees 1-4
Favre 3-7
Kelly 1-3
PManning 2-5
Marino 1-6
Montana 2-5
Moon 1-4
Young 0-3

 

[CCBoy]

Another great look there, Percy. Thanks.

 

[KJJ]

OK, let's look at Staubach in his final games of the season that did not end up with Super Bowl victories.

In 1972, Dallas' season ended with a 26-3 playoff loss to Washington in which Staubach was 9-20 for 98 yards, no TDs, no ints.

In 1973, Dallas' season ended with a 27-10 playoff loss to Minnesota, in which Staubach was 10-21 for 89 yards, no TDs and 4 ints.

In 1974, Dallas didn't make the playoffs, losing in its final game to Oakland 27-23 with Staubach 17-39 (43.1 percent) for 266 yards, no TDs, no ints.

In 1975, against Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl, Staubach was 15 of 24 for 204 yards, 2 TDs and 3 ints. in a 21-17 loss.

in 1976, Dallas was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by Los Angeles, losing 14-12 with Staubach 15-37 for 150 yards, 0 TDs, 4 ints.

In 1979, Dallas lost in the first round of the playoffs to LA and Staubach was 12-28 for 124 yards, 1 TD, 1 int.

In fact, the only playoff game where Staubach was "clutch" and Dallas lost was the 1978 Super Bowl against Pittsburgh, when he completed 17-30 with 3 TDs and 1 int.

Just think how many Super Bowls Dallas would have won if Staubach hadn't choked! In fact, based on the evidence that only two of his seasons ended in Super Bowl victories, that means he's only 2-7 in "final elimination" games, so that means his "reputation for being clutch" is undeserved. Get that man out of the Hall of Fame!

You just proved what I said there's only a handful of games that gave Staubach the reputation for being clutch. He was given the name Captain Comeback after the Cowboys miraculous come from behind victory in the final 90 seconds vs SF in the 72 playoffs. Staubach had a number of games where he wasn't clutch and you listed several. You never hear anyone claim Staubach choked in a game because 2 of his most clutch performances came during that playoff game in 72 vs SF and vs Minn in the 75 playoffs. Staubach's TD to turnover ratio in those 6 losses you listed was 3-12 which goes back to why I put so much weight on a QB's TD to turnover ratio. Staubach's career was defined by 3 great comebacks vs SF, Minn and Washington in the 1979 season finale with the NFC East on the line. Against SF in the playoffs in 72 Staubach tossed 2 TD's in the final 90 seconds to pull that game out. Against Minn in the 75 playoffs with the Cowboys behind in the closing minutes he hit Drew Pearson on a 4th and 16 play to keep the Cowboys last ditch drive alive. Then with only seconds to play he hit Pearson again from 50 yards out for the game winner.

That turned out to be the most memorable play of Staubach's career and one of the greatest in NFL history. Against Washington in Staubach's final regular season game of his career in 79 he brought the Cowboys back twice from 2 score deficits hitting Tony Hill in the final seconds to pull that game out. When fans think of Roger Staubach they think of those games because they made a lasting impression. The Cowboys only missed the playoffs once under Staubach. He played in 17 playoff games winning 11 of them including 2 SB's. If you look at the playoff careers of every great QB they all had their share of failures/chokes but their careers were defined by a few great games that are ingrained in everyones memory. If you look at Joe Montana's playoff record he had 3 straight seasons where the 49ers went one and out.

He had some performances that could be looked at as choke jobs but his reputation was built off of 5 great championship games. He had 2 great clutch come from behind performances in the postseason vs the Cowboys in the 81 title game and vs Cinn in the 1988 SB. When fans think of Joe Montana they think of those games. If you look at the career of Peyton Manning he's had more choke jobs than Romo's ever had but he's won 5 league MVP's, played in 3 SB's winning one and he's won 11 playoff games. Plus his teams make the playoffs every year. Staubach, Montana and Peyton Manning all have a lot of skins on their wall and their successes far outweigh their failures.

Romo is known for only failing. You can't point to one elimination game he's played in where he was "clutch." He only has one playoff win and that came almost 5 years ago in an easy win over Philly in a game the Cowboys never trailed. The only plays anyone remembers with Romo are the bad plays because they came in big games and the mistakes happened late in those games. There's not one play in a "do or die" game where he's come through. One great moment/play in a do or die championship situation could change the perception many have of him. The big mistakes he's had in the closing minutes of critical games have marred his career. He needs a Joe Montana/ Roger Staubach moment in an elimination game to help change how he's viewed.