Mariotta will drop in this draft

[CowboyChris]

David Carr and Joey Harrington had pretty prolific college careers. So did Matt Barkley.

I would compare Mariota to those QB's not Winston.

 

[Rogah]

He'll be out of the league in 3-4 years. Guaranteed.

I feel bad for these kids. The media hypes them up beyond belief. Tebow, Johnny, RG3. It's not their fault. They're put on this pedestal and forced to be great.

I hate what the media does to these young athletes. The only thing they love more than hyping them up beyond belief is tearing them down when the athlete fails to live up to the hype which they (usually) never wanted or deserved in the first place.

As far as Mariota, I predict he is the top pick in the draft. He is the best QB coming out of college this year.

 

[Rogah]

I don't know what I want more.

A. Bust Mariota gets drafted #1, and all Iggles fans are shocked, mad, angry, sad and pissed off and vow to never watch football again.

I don't see many Eagles fans who believe them getting Mariota is a possibility so I do not anticipate any shock and anger when he goes to Tampa.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I hate what the media does to these young athletes. The only thing they love more than hyping them up beyond belief is tearing them down when the athlete fails to live up to the hype which they (usually) never wanted or deserved in the first place.

As far as Mariota, I predict he is the top pick in the draft. He is the best QB coming out of college this year.

I think he's the best QB coming out this year Rogah. Winston probably has more of an NFL game right now but I think Mariota will be able to develop. He's a really smart and he works hard at improving. He spends the time breaking down film etc. I really like him. We will never have the opportunity to draft him but if we did, I think I would take him.

 

[Rockport]

Is that your personal opinion or did u read that somewhere??

My personal opinion. His best attribute is his dedication to the game. He'll be constantly working on his craft. Match that with his physical gifts and the fact that he's very intelligent and you've goy a high first round pick.

 

[jcollins28]

Mariotta is the most sure fire QB to come out since Luck. He'll be highly sought after. Only fools make a judgement on a QB after just 1 game.

Umm no...I remember when people said Joey Harrington was a can't miss. It's weird but Oregon offensive players just never seem to materialize in the NFL. They are like Duke basketball players in the NBA.

 

[CowboyChris]

My personal opinion. His best attribute is his dedication to the game. He'll be constantly working on his craft. Match that with his physical gifts and the fact that he's very intelligent and you've goy a high first round pick.

I havent read or seen anything that suggests Mariota is the next coming of Andrew Luck. Mariota is going to benefit in this years draft cause there is only 2 decent qb prospects in this whole draft, and again WInston is the better of the two.

 

[Rockport]

I havent read or seen anything that suggests Mariota is the next coming of Andrew Luck. Mariota is going to benefit in this years draft cause there is only 2 decent qb prospects in this whole draft, and again WInston is the better of the two.

Backtracking already.

 

[NickZepp]

I havent read or seen anything that suggests Mariota is the next coming of Andrew Luck. Mariota is going to benefit in this years draft cause there is only 2 decent qb prospects in this whole draft, and again WInston is the better of the two.

Winston may be a better talent but I doubt he's top 10 pick just because of baggage. He could fall out of the first round. I do agree he's got a chance to be a better pro prospect. But I don't think he's really a can't miss guy either.

 

[CowboyChris]

Backtracking already.

let be clear here, im saying Winston goes #1 and Mariota slides, and you on the other hand think Mariota goes #1 am I correct?

 

[Rogah]

let be clear here, im saying Winston goes #1 and Mariota slides, and you on the other hand think Mariota goes #1 am I correct?

No way Winston goes #1 and I would be amazed if he was the first QB drafted.

 

[Rockport]

let be clear here, im saying Winston goes #1 and Mariota slides, and you on the other hand think Mariota goes #1 am I correct?

I never said he would go first. I only said he's the most sure fire QB coming out since Luck.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

yea well....everyone is trying to bring up his off the field issues, to justify him not being a good qb, facts are he went 27-1 as a starter, has the prototypical size and nfl arm, he is the most ready QB to step into the NFL. and i think he goes #1. jmo

He probably will.

And he'll bust.

It's really just that simple.

They don't bring up off the field issues to justify anything. People one of these days are going to understand that off the field issues are a concern for a reason. Stupid people tend to remain being stupid people.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

If we could define bust with a specific timeline, I'd be willing to make a pretty significant wager that says you are wrong. Care to put your $ where your mouth is?

If you like to make pointless wagers that's your bag. I feel no reason to put money on players I have no involvement with.

And I'm not interested in trying to figure out what you, or anyone else, considers a fair time line for a bust.

Personally I'll be surprised if the guy lasts 3 or 4 years in the league before his stupidity runs him right out of the NFL.

But here's the thing. I am comfortable with the fact that I could be wrong. *GASP* What a unique concept on these forums. I know some of you folks feel the need to thump your chests and act like you're 100% accurate at all times.

I don't have that problem. I realize I can, and am, wrong when it comes to this stuff.

I don't feel that a guy like Winston, whose shown to be extremely poor in his judgement, is a guy whose going to light the NFL on fire or even last.

Edit: And now that I took notice of your forum name there is no way I will continue this conversation with you. The fact that you're a fan of his college team makes you about the least objective person on the subject. So you can believe he'll be amazing, as that's your right as a fan, and I'll believe that he's going to absolutely suck and run himself out of the league being a moron. That's also my right.

 

[VACowboy]

Here's my question: Is the offense Kelly runs in Philly the exact same offense he ran in Oregon?

 

[tm1119]

Here's my question: Is the offense Kelly runs in Philly the exact same offense he ran in Oregon?

I'm not an expert because I never followed Oregon closely, but I'd say no. I think it's based on the same principals though....high tempo, read option run, and getting the ball out of the QB's hand quickly to the 1st read. I live in the Philly area so I've watched more Philly games than I'd like to admit, and I can say that Foles/Sanchize missed A LOT of wide open WR's this year. Their QB play really held them back. And also the fact that Chip has never had a QB with any kind of running ability has really hampered his play calling and effectiveness....the read option isn't so hard to stop when you know the QB isn't actually a threat to keep the ball.

That's why even though I have my doubts about him, I really don't want to see the Eagles get Mariota.

 

[VACowboy]

I'm not an expert because I never followed Oregon closely, but I'd say no. I think it's based on the same principals though....high tempo, read option run, and getting the ball out of the QB's hand quickly to the 1st read. I live in the Philly area so I've watched more Philly games than I'd like to admit, and I can say that Foles/Sanchize missed A LOT of wide open WR's this year. Their QB play really held them back. And also the fact that Chip has never had a QB with any kind of running ability has really hampered his play calling and effectiveness....the read option isn't so hard to stop when you know the QB isn't actually a threat to keep the ball.

That's why even though I have my doubts about him, I really don't want to see the Eagles get Mariota.

The reason I asked is, I'm not so sure a 1-read passing offense can work in the NFL. Even if it does, when the second option is the QB running around until he finds something, it's a matter of time until he gets racked up and is watching his backup flounder while he rehabs. Russell Wilson does some running around, but he also has pocket passing skills. Seattle runs a lot of zone read, but their passing game looks like a pro offense to me. Plus, I don't think an up-tempo offense will work in the NFL over the long haul just because it's up-tempo. As I've posted a thousand times, success in the NFL comes down to moving the ball, scoring, and stopping the opposition from doing the same thing. Doesn't matter how fast you run plays. If you don't make first downs and put the ball in the end zone, all you achieve by running plays quickly is leaving more time on the clock for the other team to score.

Now, Mariota certainly knows Kelly's Oregon offense better than Foles and Sanchez, and his running ability isn't debatable, but I'm of the opinion that unless he can sit in the pocket and read defenses, he's gonna struggle against the big boys. Gimmicks like Kelly's tempo work when there's no film to look at and no time to game plan, but if Kelly can't succeed running plays every 33 seconds, he's not gonna succeed running plays every 20 either. If Mariota is a good NFL quarterback, he'll make Kelly's offense better. I don't think the opposite is necessarily true.

Can anyone name a QB who has come to the NFL from a college spread offense and had lengthy success?

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I don't know that Mariota can't read a defense. I mean, the problem is that Oregon's offense is designed to get the ball out of the QBs hands. Essentially to make very quick decisions. It's true that he threw to his first receiver a lot but is that part of the offensive design or is it Mariota's lack of ability? I mean, think about that stat. Marriota threw for over 68% completion percentage this year. That means that regardless of if he was throwing to his 1st or his secondary receiver options, he was completing a very high percentage of his passes and they weren't just checkdowns. He lead Division I in AYPA at 10 yards per. I mean, this is what you teach QBs to do. Throw to the open man. If their offense is so good that you are completing over 68% of your passes for an average of 10 yards per completion, that probably means that it's working. I don't know how much that stat means. If Oregon was not as effective as they are, it would mean more but it's really hard to argue with that success.

 

[tm1119]

I don't know that Mariota can't read a defense. I mean, the problem is that Oregon's offense is designed to get the ball out of the QBs hands. Essentially to make very quick decisions. It's true that he threw to his first receiver a lot but is that part of the offensive design or is it Mariota's lack of ability? I mean, think about that stat. Marriota threw for over 68% completion percentage this year. That means that regardless of if he was throwing to his 1st or his secondary receiver options, he was completing a very high percentage of his passes and they weren't just checkdowns. He lead Division I in AYPA at 10 yards per. I mean, this is what you teach QBs to do. Throw to the open man. If their offense is so good that you are completing over 68% of your passes for an average of 10 yards per completion, that probably means that it's working. I don't know how much that stat means. If Oregon was not as effective as they are, it would mean more but it's really hard to argue with that success.

In my opinion it was like 90% by design. Although I wouldn't get too caught up with the yards per completion though. That has a lot to do with YAC. I can't seem to find the #'s from 2014, but this chart from 2013 is pretty interesting. 44% of Mariota's pass attempts were balls thrown within 5 yards of the LOS and only 20% went more than 15 yards. That's something that obviously won't work in the NFL, he's going to have to stay in the pocket a lot longer and throw the ball down field a lot more to have success. Maybe he is capable of playing in a system outside of Oregon's, I honestly have no clue, but there is definitely cause for concern if you are a team that intends to pick a QB early.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Regardless of YAC, if the offense is successful, then you play within the Offense. I mean, if we were putting up those numbers with the Cowboys, I wouldn't care if Tony was throwing long or not. The Offensive success is what you want. That's kind of my point. That's why the AYPA is important. It shows that he is having success throwing to his 1st receiver. If he were not throwing to his first receiver when they were open, he would not be starting.

As I said earlier, I don't know if you can say that he is incapable of reading defenses or throwing to secondary receivers. In the Oregon Offense, he was not asked to do that so I think you have to stay away from any kind of blanket summary on what he can or can't do until he has had a chance to actually show that he can't.