Maybe Roy William IS the problem

[Temo]

Ok, before you all start killing me, let me just say that in the past I've always defended Roy Williams and said he's average in coverage. But here's some interesting stats on Secondary play around the league:

Best Success Rate (Incomplete, INT, or catch for neglible yardage)

Charles Woodson, GB: 70%
Roderick Hood, ARI: 66%
Fakhir Brown, STL: 65%
Mike McKenzie, NO: 64%
Anthony Henry, DAL: 63%
Jabari Greer, BUF: 63%
Dunta Robinson, HOU: 63%
Richard Marshall, CAR: 63%
Champ Bailey, DEN: 63%
Will Allen, MIA: 62%
Asante Samuel, NE: 62%
Ty Law, KC: 60%
Terrence McGee, BUF: 60%

Best Yards per Pass (Obvious)

Roderick Hood, ARI: 4.3
Asante Samuel, NE: 4.5
Will Allen, MIA: 4.5
Terrence Newman, DAL: 4.7
Jabari Greer, BUF: 5.0
Terrence McGee, BUF: 5.0
Mike McKenzie, NO: 5.5
Tye Hill, STL: 5.8
Jason Craft, NO: 5.9
Anthony Henry, DAL: 6.0
Deshea Townsend, PIT: 6.0
Jarrod Bush, GB: 6.0

Worst Yards per Pass
Jason David, NO: 14.5
Hole in Zone, 11.9
Yes, Jason David is worse than throwing at a hole in the zone. Fred Thomas gave up 9.3 yards per pass last year. Egads. I guess not every player is meant to play in every defensive scheme.
Michael Huff, OAK: 10.8
Stanley Wilson, DET: 10.7
Drayton Florence, SD: 10.6
Corey Ivy, BAL: 10.0
Leon Hall, CIN: 9.6
Patrick Surtain, KC: 9.3
David Barrett, NYJ: 9.1
Cedric Griffin, MIN: 9.0
Al Harris, GB: 8.8

Most Targets per Charted Pass
Here are the players most often listed as DEFENDER1 compared to the number of passes charted for their defense. We can’t really do fewest targets without correcting for games played and a bunch of other stuff that takes lots of time.
Jacques Reeves, the Human Target, DAL: 21%
Nate Clements, SF: 20%
Will Allen, MIA: 20%
Ike Taylor, PIT: 20%
Marcus Trufant, SEA: 19%
Sam Madison, NYG: 19%
Kelvin Hayden, IND: 19%
Kelly Jennings, SEA: 19%
Dre’ Bly (aka “away from Champ Bailey&#8221, DEN: 18%
Nick Harper, TEN: 18%
DeAngelo Hall, ATL: 18%
Darelle Revis, NYJ, 18%

Worst Success Rate
Jason David, NO: 32%
Stanley Wilson, DET: 36%
Johnathan Joseph, CIN: 39%
Leon Hall, CIN: 40%
Drayton Florence, SD: 41%
Marlin Jackson, IND: 41%
Lito Sheppard, PHI: 41%
Roy Williams, DAL: 41%
Eric Green, ARI: 42%
Darrelle Revis, NYJ: 42%
Atari Bigby, GB: 42%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
First of all, I should mention that I'm a game-charter for Football outsiders for Cowboys and Jets games. And these stats on the cowboys don't surprise me. I mean, I seriously can't recall having ever charted a game where Newman is the target of more than 2 or 3 passes. Like seriously, NEVER.

And despite being the target of just about every pass when he was still starting, Jacques Reeves didn't play outstanding, but he wasn't horrible either. He was basically average, he'd give up some first downs, but he'd make some plays too. He was OK.



Now... Roy Williams. The problem isn't that he isn't fast enough, but he seriously can't make plays on the ball. If he were a centerfielder, he'd be the opposite of Andruw Jones.


And yes, Al Harris is not having a good year. He's been off all season.


Anyway, it's interesting information, I still dont' think Roy Williams is "horrible" per se. But he's official the weak point of the secondary.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/12/21/ramblings/stat-analysis/5920/

^-- link for stats

 

[Howley54]

Anyway, it's interesting information, I still dont' think Roy Williams is "horrible" per se. But he's official the weak point of the secondary.

Groundbreakng stuff. Who would have ever thought that a strong safety could be the worst pass defender in the entire secondary?
:starspin

 

[Temo]

Perhaps I should have worded it better. Yes, he is horrible in pass coverage, just not horrible overall.

And he's not just the worst pass defender in the secondary, he's one of the worst of any safety.

 

[03EBZ06]

Groundbreakng stuff. Who would have ever thought that a strong safety could be the worst pass defender in the entire secondary?
:starspin

LOL. Yeah, I suppose SS should be as good as CB in coverage.

Man, people will go any lengths to bash Roy.

All coaches and players who voted for him for Pro Bowl should be fired.

 

[Tehboogieman]

ooooooh nice post

 

[Temo]

Again, no. You're wrong. I wasn't comparing him to CBs, I was comparing him to all Defensive Backs. Including safeties. And he can't prevent people from catching the ball.

 

[TheCount]

Perhaps I should have worded it better. Yes, he is horrible in pass coverage, just not horrible overall.

And he's not just the worst pass defender in the secondary, he's one of the worst of any safety.

Yes, Roy has difficulty in coverage. What else ya got?

 

[Rack]

Groundbreakng stuff. Who would have ever thought that a strong safety could be the worst pass defender in the entire secondary?
:starspin

Agreed. This post will start a revolution.

Teams all across america will now realize that their strong safeties suck, and they'll start moving CBs in to replace them.


Seriously, what mental deficiency (sp?) causes someone to start yet ANOTHER Roy Williams thread? What chemical or brain cell is absent that doesn't allow them to think "Hey, maybe this is a dumb thread idea and maybe I shouldn't post it"? Is it Mental Midgetism that causes someone to start yet ANOTHER Roy Williams thread instead of posting this in one of the Millions (and Millions) of other Roy Williams threads?


I feel almost as dumb for posting in this thread as the thread idea itself.

Talk about wasting time researching all that info only to find out that the STRONG SAFETY is the weakest cover man in the secondary.

I shall take my leave now though, I have to go swim in 25 different bodies of water to find out if, in fact, I'll get wet when I do so. Have to be thorough!

 

[tunahelper]

His tight hips and poor ball recognition were seen as issues coming out of Oklahoma by scouts.

He was such a play maker that his weaknesses were forgiven.

I think he is gun shy now that he has been targeted in the passing game.

Even his tackling is suffering this year. He doesnt wrap up consistently and shoulder tackles too much.

Until he can recover his big play ability the skill trade off is not worth it IMO.

 

[TheDuke]

LOL. Yeah, I suppose SS should be as good as CB in coverage.

Man, people will go any lengths to bash Roy.

All coaches and players who voted for him for Pro Bowl should be fired.

I don't think he was trying to bash roy...just pointing out the facts and letting you decide.

 

[Temo]

Agreed. This post will start a revolution.

Teams all across america will now realize that their strong safeties suck, and they'll start moving CBs in to replace them.


Seriously, what mental deficiency (sp?) causes someone to start yet ANOTHER Roy Williams thread? What chemical or brain cell is absent that doesn't allow them to think "Hey, maybe this is a dumb thread idea and maybe I shouldn't post it"? Is it Mental Midgetism that causes someone to start yet ANOTHER Roy Williams thread instead of posting this in one of the Millions (and Millions) of other Roy Williams threads?


I feel almost as dumb for posting in this thread as the thread idea itself.

Talk about wasting time researching all that info only to find out that the STRONG SAFETY is the weakest cover man in the secondary.

I shall take my leave now though, I have to go swim in 25 different bodies of water to find out if, in fact, I'll get wet when I do so. Have to be thorough!

And what mental deficiency does it take for you not to recognize that I'm posting stats and information that has not been posted before, both in regards to Roy Williams as well as T New, Henry, and Reeves? Also, what kind of idiocy does it take not to read that I had clarified my position in a previous post as to what I was saying about his coverage abilities as it relates to his position?

 

[Temo]

I don't think he was trying to bash roy...just pointing out the facts and letting you decide.

Thanks. This is more a post about our secondary as a whole, but Roy obviously plays a big part in that, so I led off with him.

 

[theogt]

Success percentage in and of itself doesn't tell you much. Last season, Roy had a 59% success percentage according to FootballOutsiders, which would have put him up close to one of the best in the league. There's no doubt that he's been better this year in coverage than last year, given his reduced role in deep coverage (which is his weakest attribute).

This year, however, he's been in a lot of underneath coverage as a "nickel linebacker," which most likely puts him in coverage in more "high percentage" pass routes for offenses, thus reducing his success percentage significantly.

 

[Howley54]

he's one of the worst of any safety.

How do you quantify that statement?

 

[5Stars]

I hope Roy does not injure his knee sometime and have to stay home during a road game to rehab and a burgler breaks into his house and...well, you get the picture!

Then what?

 

[theogt]

How do you quantify that statement?

He's just saying that he was one of the worst success percentages of any safety this year.

But last year he had one of the best success percentages of any safety (and the highest success percentage of our entire secondary).

 

[Temo]

Success percentage in and of itself doesn't tell you much. Last season, Roy had a 59% success percentage according to FootballOutsiders, which would have put him up close to one of the best in the league. There's no doubt that he's been better this year in coverage than last year.

Actually, I would disagree. His duties this year are different than last year. First of all, last year he was asked to play deep zone a lot more often than this year, and as a result the passes of which he was a target were often deep ones (reflected in another stat, not posted, that game charters have to chart... yards the pass goes through the air). Now, these passes will more often fall incomplete than other passes, as deep passes are inherently harder to complete.

Now, Roy Williams did not have a bad year last year. If you look at the game charting information last year, he was much, much better than Pat Watkins/Keith Davis who played beside him. But this year, when he plays Man coverage and shorter zones (even from a LB position in the dime), he has decreased his success rate to become one of the worst pass defenders among safeties in the league.

Edit: Oops, you edited your post to reflect what I said. But yea, I have all the data on yards per pass intended and all that since I did chart it, but I don't think I can share that info. Basically, yea his yards per pass intended did drop (it's averagish now)and his yards allowed per catch is middling.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

How many catches does he allow per game? How many yards does he allow per game.

Somebody can have a 41% "success" percentage and still be pretty decent in coverage if he's not getting thrown at a lot and/or the yardage totals are low.



YAKUZA

 

[Rampage]

Agreed. This post will start a revolution.

Teams all across america will now realize that their strong safeties suck, and they'll start moving CBs in to replace them.


Seriously, what mental deficiency (sp?) causes someone to start yet ANOTHER Roy Williams thread? What chemical or brain cell is absent that doesn't allow them to think "Hey, maybe this is a dumb thread idea and maybe I shouldn't post it"? Is it Mental Midgetism that causes someone to start yet ANOTHER Roy Williams thread instead of posting this in one of the Millions (and Millions) of other Roy Williams threads?


I feel almost as dumb for posting in this thread as the thread idea itself.

Talk about wasting time researching all that info only to find out that the STRONG SAFETY is the weakest cover man in the secondary.

I shall take my leave now though, I have to go swim in 25 different bodies of water to find out if, in fact, I'll get wet when I do so. Have to be thorough!

i knew this would be the next excuse in line

 

[theogt]

Actually, I would disagree. His duties this year are different than last year. First of all, last year he was asked to play deep zone a lot more often than this year, and as a result the passes of which he was a target were often deep ones (reflected in another stat, not posted, that game charters have to chart... yards the pass goes through the air). Now, these passes will more often fall incomplete than other passes, as deep passes are inherently harder to complete.

This is precisely my point. In the past, his success percentage was inflated because he played "low percentage" pass patterns. The term "low percentage" is viewed from the offense's perspective, as in deep passes are "low percentage" passes and short, dump offs are "high percentage" passes. His changed role has him covering more "high percentage" passes, thus reducing his success percentage.

It might be more appropriate to compare his numbers to linebackers who cover similar routes in other defenses.

Now, Roy Williams did not have a bad year last year. If you look at the game charting information last year, he was much, much better than Pat Watkins/Keith Davis who played beside him. But this year, when he plays Man coverage and shorter zones (even from a LB position in the dime), he has decreased his success rate to become one of the worst pass defenders among safeties in the league.

No, he did have a terrible year last year in coverage. This year he has been much better. This shows exactly why just looking at "success percentage" is a terrible idea.