Maybe Roy William IS the problem

[Temo]

This is precisely my point. In the past, his success percentage was inflated because he was played "low percentage" pass patterns. The term "low percentage" is viewed from the offense's perspective, as in deep passes are "low percentage" passes and short, dump offs are "high percentage" passes. His changed role has him covering more "high percentage" passes, thus reducing his success percentage.

It might be more appropriate to compare his numbers to linebackers who cover similar routes in other defenses.

Yea, you edited your post after I'd already replied

You make a good point, though. Only thing is that most LBs don't have the requiste amount of passes intended yet to make that qualification.

But overall, yea you could be right, I appreciate the point, it's something to consider.

 

[DBoys]

Actually, I would disagree. His duties this year are different than last year. First of all, last year he was asked to play deep zone a lot more often than this year, and as a result the passes of which he was a target were often deep ones (reflected in another stat, not posted, that game charters have to chart... yards the pass goes through the air). Now, these passes will more often fall incomplete than other passes, as deep passes are inherently harder to complete.

Now, Roy Williams did not have a bad year last year. If you look at the game charting information last year, he was much, much better than Pat Watkins/Keith Davis who played beside him. But this year, when he plays Man coverage and shorter zones (even from a LB position in the dime), he has decreased his success rate to become one of the worst pass defenders among safeties in the league.

Edit: Oops, you edited your post to reflect what I said. But yea, I have all the data on yards per pass intended and all that since I did chart it, but I don't think I can share that info. Basically, yea his yards per pass intended did drop (it's averagish now)and his yards allowed per catch is middling.

Temo thanks for the work. Very very interesting stats.

I really feel like Roy will get another year but if he continues this spiral he will not be a Cowboy long.

 

[bracey]

i knew this would be the next excuse in line

It's also a horrible excuse unless you ignore the stats posted. Every DB worse than Roy is a CB, meaning that Roy has been the worst coverage safety in the entire league this year. Also, that strong safety is not the worst coverage position per attempt for many teams in the league.

 

[theogt]

Yea, you edited your post after I'd already replied

You make a good point, though. Only thing is that most LBs don't have the requiste amount of passes intended yet to make that qualification.

But overall, yea you could be right, I appreciate the point, it's something to consider.

I have a bad habit of doing that.

Interesting discussion, though. It'd sure be nice if FO could include defenders' stats in their weekly updates. I've talked to them before about it, but apparently it just takes entirely too long.

 

[Temo]

No, he did have a terrible year last year in coverage. This year he has been much better. This shows exactly why just looking at "success percentage" is a terrible idea.

I know just looking at that stat is wrong, I already said you ahve look at pass yards through the air and all that.

Now, while I didn't chart the games he played in last year, it seemed from just watching the games that a lot of the deep passes that got completed were not as much his fault as the safeties who were playing next to him, each of whom (especially Keith Davis, who I think had something crazy like 14 yards per pass intended) had absolutely terrible numbers.

 

[Temo]

Temo thanks for the work. Very very interesting stats.

I really feel like Roy will get another year but if he continues this spiral he will not be a Cowboy long.

Well, don't just thank me. I do charting, but as many as 4 people chart each cowboys game. And there's about 30 or so Football outsiders charters total.

 

[theogt]

I know just looking at that stat is wrong, I already said you ahve look at pass yards through the air and all that.

Now, while I didn't chart the games he played in last year, it seemed from just watching the games that a lot of the deep passes that got completed were not as much his fault as the safeties who were playing next to him, each of whom (especially Keith Davis, who I think had something crazy like 14 yards per pass intended) had absolutely terrible numbers.

That's true. "Absolutely terrible" might be an understatement. I can't imagine that Jerry would even consider letting Hamlin walk at this point.

 

[masomenos]

And what mental deficiency does it take for you not to recognize that I'm posting stats and information that has not been posted before, both in regards to Roy Williams as well as T New, Henry, and Reeves? Also, what kind of idiocy does it take not to read that I had clarified my position in a previous post as to what I was saying about his coverage abilities as it relates to his position?

People get pretty defensive about the whole "Roy" thing. I think you're post is great and very informative. It's not a matter of Roy struggling in coverage, it's a matter of him being awful. Near the bottom of the league awful. I wish I could see how he ranked in previous years though; is this a gradual decline, has it all been downhill since his contract? Anyways, ignore the people who attack you for showing statistics that go against, (what's the word people like to throw around on here) their agaenda.

 

[theogt]

People get pretty defensive about the whole "Roy" thing. I think you're post is great and very informative. It's not a matter of Roy struggling in coverage, it's a matter of him being awful. Near the bottom of the league awful. I wish I could see how he ranked in previous years though; is this a gradual decline, has it all been downhill since his contract? Anyways, ignore the people who attack you for showing statistics that go against, (what's the word people like to throw around on here) their agaenda.

He had the highest success percentage among the entire Cowboys secondary last year, Newman and Henry included.

 

[Temo]

People get pretty defensive about the whole "Roy" thing. I think you're post is great and very informative. It's not a matter of Roy struggling in coverage, it's a matter of him being awful. Near the bottom of the league awful. I wish I could see how he ranked in previous years though; is this a gradual decline, has it all been downhill since his contract? Anyways, ignore the people who attack you for showing statistics that go against, (what's the word people like to throw around on here) their agaenda.

Really, the "good" game charting has only been around since last season, and theogt (sp) already mentioned some of his stats then and how that could relate.

I still don't think he's a "terrible" player though, I just think his weaknesses are becoming more and more pronounced as time goes on.

 

[Rampage]

He had the highest success percentage among the entire Cowboys secondary last year, Newman and Henry included.

when did he get his contract extension?

 

[theogt]

when did he get his contract extension?

Prior to the 2006 season.

 

[masomenos]

He had the highest success percentage among the entire Cowboys secondary last year, Newman and Henry included.

Interesting. I can see part of it attributed to what Temco said, about him playign deep safety more last year and deep throws being inherently harder to complete, but it wasn't really up until this year that Roy feel out of favor with me. I doubt his percentage was ever higher than last year, so maybe there is no "steady decline" like i was suggesting.

 

[Temo]

when did he get his contract extension?

heh. Before we get to that point, I think it should be mentioned that success percentage alone won't give you a full picture of how Roy played last year. I think his overall rankings among safeties last year was dead average, which is why I started out this year defending his ability to cover. He's been pretty bad this year though, which was my point.

 

[Rampage]

Prior to the 2006 season.

guess money isn't the problem than.

 

[iceberg]

Again, no. You're wrong. I wasn't comparing him to CBs, I was comparing him to all Defensive Backs. Including safeties. And he can't prevent people from catching the ball.

and this is a revalation that hasn't been discussed 187,232,785 times already?

i swear to god some people just gotta get their shots in at all costs.

 

[masomenos]

heh. Before we get to that point, I think it should be mentioned that success percentage alone won't give you a full picture of how Roy played last year. I think his overall rankings among safeties last year was dead average, which is why I started out this year defending his ability to cover. He's been pretty bad this year though, which was my point.

You dont happen to have access to Roy's overall safety rankings from the time he entered the league to present do you? That'd be rather interesting to see.

 

[theogt]

heh. Before we get to that point, I think it should be mentioned that success percentage alone won't give you a full picture of how Roy played last year. I think his overall rankings among safeties last year was dead average, which is why I started out this year defending his ability to cover. He's been pretty bad this year though, which was my point.

We're still not comparing apples to apples, though. I don't think anyone would doubt that Roy in the "nickel linebacker" role is better than just about any other linebacker in the same role.

 

[Temo]

You dont happen to have access to Roy's overall safety rankings from the time he entered the league to present do you? That'd be rather interesting to see.

No, I don't even have 2006, I don't have my Pro football prospectus on me (it's at home). I was going off recollection. Maybe theogt has 2006.

Also, before 2006, FO did do game charting, but they didn't chart yards through the air, yards after the catch against, and all that... so the ratings are kinda lacking. You really do need to look at all the stats as a whole to make a judgement, which was my concession in this arguement to theogt.

 

[Rampage]

We're still not comparing apples to apples, though. I don't think anyone would doubt that Roy in the "nickel linebacker" role is better than just about any other linebacker in the same role.

not lofa tatupu in my opinion