Mayock on NFLN on risers/fallers

[AKATheRake]

I'll take Teddy Bridgewater with the 47th pick in the draft and not even blink.

Doubt he'll be there though.

 

[Nirvana]

Manziel, Bridgewater and Bortles are 1,2,3 or 1a, 1b, 1c, they all give that "Franchise QB vibe" to a top 8 Team. Nothing has changed since the Season ended. Carr is a distant 4th in the 3 year evaluation process that has transpired.

I think what has changed is that the people who actually decide who teams will draft have made up their minds about these QBs and it's not what the scouts were pushing. Interviews have probably played a bigger factor than we could ever know about. I have a hard time believing Bridgewater drops like this because of failing to wear a glove. I don't know. I think Bridgewater would be a great pick though, even better in a trade down.

 

[Tezz]

When push comes to shove it's tough for a decision maker to take a QB in the 1st with less than ideal measurables, which is why I think QBs drop

 

[Gaede]

I just don't buy Bridgewater's fall at all.

I can't believe one bad pro day would cause the potential number one to just free fall.

I still think he's going to Minnesota.

 

[JohnnyHopkins]

I would be thrilled if he becomes a Dallas Cowboy.

 

[burmafrd]

Here is a perfect example of over analysis and media stupidity

 

[Dhragon]

If the Cowboys believe he is a franchise QB, I'd have no problem taking him.

 

[Alexander]

Doesn't Mayock like to Flip Flop alot on guys?

Very much so.

 

[xwalker]

Said he talked to teams and most are saying that Bridgewater is a 2nd round grade. He said he could not see a team taking Ealy in the first round. He thought Shazier will definitely will be taken in the first round. He thinks Laurent Duvernay-Tardif will be drafted higher than originally thought. Marquis Lee he saw slipping out of the first too.

I you were a team that was interesting in Bridgewater, what would you tell a media guy a week or two before the draft? I would tell him that I have Bridgewater rated as a 2nd rounder.

 

[Fredd]

My goodness, I would use the media to my advantage all over the place....let them float the stories/rumors out there and sit back and get your guy

 

[JD_KaPow]

Some trivia here...even after 4 years I the league, only 50% of 2nd rounders become starters! That's right...only 1/2 of 2nd rounders ever come close to meeting expectations.

Fans have massively overinflated expectations of the draft. Hit rates are much much lower than people realize. Only about 60% of first-rounders and 50% of second-rounders pan out (see this study for example). So your chances of getting two starters out of your first two picks are less than one-in-three. And that doesn't factor in where in the round you draft, or people who believe players like Marcus Spears are "busts".

 

[xwalker]

Fans have massively overinflated expectations of the draft. Hit rates are much much lower than people realize. Only about 60% of first-rounders and 50% of second-rounders pan out (see this study for example). So your chances of getting two starters out of your first two picks are less than one-in-three. And that doesn't factor in where in the round you draft, or people who believe players like Marcus Spears are "busts".

What is the Cowboys success rate of 1st rounder in the past 10 years? Bobbie Carpenter is the only bust that I recall.

 

[JD_KaPow]

What is the Cowboys success rate of 1st rounder in the past 10 years? Bobbie Carpenter is the only bust that I recall.

Let's see.

Round 1, 2004-2013:
Clear hits: Fred, Tyron, Dez, Spencer, Ware, Spears
Clear misses: Carpenter
You decide/Incomplete: Felix, Jenkins, Claiborne

Overall, I agree, we've been pretty good in the 1st. But remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results. In such a small sample, it's not that unusual for a 60% probability to end up giving you 8 hits out of 10. And look at our results in the 2nd:

Round 2, 2004-2013:
Clear hits: Lee (health concerns notwithstanding)
Clear misses: Jacob Rogers
You decide/Incomplete: Burnett, Fasano, Bennett (somewhat productive but never starters, no second contract) , Carter, Escobar

That kinda feels like a group a 50% hit rate might generate.

Hey, this is fun:

Round 3:
Clear hits: Hatcher (took a while), Murray
Clear misses: J. Williams, Brewster, Marten, Peterman
Incomplete:T. Williams, Wilcox, Crawford

Round 4
Clear hits: Free (took a while), MBIII, Canty (no second contract, but still)
Clear misses: Butler, Choice (somewhat productive but never starters, no second contract), Arkin, AOA, McGee, Stanback, Green, Thornton (who?)
Incomplete: Webb, Wilber, M. Johnson (hey, he's still here)

 

[DBOY3141]

What is the Cowboys success rate of 1st rounder in the past 10 years? Bobbie Carpenter is the only bust that I recall.

I see this thread getting off topic quick.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I see this thread getting off topic quick.

Ha! Guilty as charged.

Okay, steering back on: I think 90% of the risers/fallers stuff has nothing to do with the teams changing their opinions/boards, and everything to do with (a) media speculation and (b) media starting to get info on what teams' actual boards look like. It still only takes one team to like Bridgewater to make him a first-rounder (and even better, a juicy trade down for the Cowboys).

 

[xwalker]

Let's see.


You decide/Incomplete: Felix, Jenkins, Claiborne

You decide/Incomplete: Burnett, Fasano, Bennett (somewhat productive but never starters, no second contract) , Carter, Escobar

Clear misses: J. Williams, Brewster, Marten, Peterman
Incomplete:T. Williams, Wilcox, Crawford

Round 4
Clear hits: Free (took a while), MBIII, Canty (no second contract, but still)
Clear misses: Butler, Choice (somewhat productive but never starters, no second contract), Arkin, AOA, McGee, Stanback, Green, Thornton (who?)
Incomplete: Webb, Wilber, M. Johnson (hey, he's still here)

Good post.

Felix seemed like a hit for a couple of years. I think he is one of the players that were affected by the extreme lack of team discipline by Wade.

Talent wise Jenkins was good. He just had injury and attitude issues.

Claiborne was decent as a rookie and then struggled with the scheme and injuries. He must prove himself this year.

Burnett was good player. If he was a 3rd round pick I would say definite hit. As a 2nd, he was OK.

Peterman did have a decent career in the NFL as a starter for the Lions. They gave up on him too early.

I would give T. Williams a hit rating already.

Bulter was the primary backup for a few years which if OK for a 4th.

Wilber is definitely ahead of Webb and Johnson.

Yuck > Arkin, AOA, McGee, Stanback, Green, Thornton. The only one I thought was a reasonable risk in the 4th was AOA. He was super athletic and played the position in college. Like many others, they failed to get an accurate assessment of his mental makeup prior to the draft.