McGinn Draft Series Part 6: RB

LOL LOL ....no more than you are convincing yourself they are not. All I'm saying we don't know. You said odds are it won't happen and I'm saying those odds can work either way with a new staff...D (lol)


Im not convincing myself of anything. Im being rational. 5 trades downs in 58 day 1 and 2 picks over the last 20 years. Thats an 8.6 percent chance. A rational person doesnt bet on something with an 8.6% chance of happening. If you dont like the fact that trading down is a long shot, then thats on you. If you're gonna pimping it as a likelihood, I'm going to keep shooting it down.
 
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You’re talking about natural ability to find space. He can make people miss in small areas, which for a guy his size is very good
This is something that stands out for me when I watch Giddens play. His ability to make himself small and get through tiny creases reminds me of Demarco Murray. He also has really good vision and quick lateral movement as well.
 
That would be a good approach. Love the idea of drafting one of the faster or more elusive guys in 3 like Tuten, Giddens, Harvey paired with a battering ram in James, Brooks, Martinez etc in 5 or 6.
I think Giddens will a target if hes there in rd 3
 
I think Giddens' rushing style kind of belies his athletic talent. He kind of has this shifty, stop-start, spin out of tackles style like he's a 200 lb scat back, but he's 212 and runs a 4.43. And he's got elite short-area burst metrics. Giddens could probably drop his shoulder and power over half the dudes on defense like a Judkins, he just doesn't want to.

As a pure rusher, I'm sold on him. I think he's a 2nd-3rd type guy. You probably want to pair him with a more capable passing-game back for negative game script situations, but in a favorable situation, you could feed him 20 carries and get 100 yards.
 
Ok, and they did it in 2021. Never said they wont. I wouldn't count on it. The data overwhelming shows that they are incredibly passive trading down in the top 100.
So in the last 4 years they've traded down twice and not traded down twice.

I don't know about how they compare to the rest of the league but to suggest it's some unlikely outcome this year when they did it just last year seems extreme to me.

It is very possible they end up with another pick or two in the mid rounds. It's also very possible they give up picks.
 
So in the last 4 years they've traded down twice and not traded down twice.

I don't know about how they compare to the rest of the league but to suggest it's some unlikely outcome this year when they did it just last year seems extreme to me.

It is very possible they end up with another pick or two in the mid rounds. It's also very possible they give up picks.
Im just going off of their tendencies. Based on their history, if I was on a sportsbook Im not making a bet that they trade. The person I was making the point to predicted they would. That prediction seems foolish to me based on their history
 
LOL. Martinez, supposedly a Cowboys favorite, isn't listed. After Jeanty, you could use the second, fifth, or sixth round and still get a good player. It just depends on what you are looking for.
The more I read, the more I'm thinking,g wait until the 4th or 5th ......use the first 3 picks on other positions.

BTW.....appreciate this Risen
And yet, most have Martinez rated as a 3rd and rated higher than many of the backs listed!
It’s like that first paragraph stated once you get past the first two it’s a clump of 12 or so players and will depend on the what teams are looking for.
 
I think the problem is we have so many holes that we need starters and our best bet is the first 2 rounds. We can still get a RB in the 3rd.
Anybody that looks at the draft this way shouldnt be taken seriously.

Lets say in 3 years when “our holes are filled”, would you want Ashton Jeanty on this team or Damien Martinez?
 
Im not convincing myself of anything. Im being rational. 5 trades downs in 58 day 1 and 2 picks over the last 20 years. Thats an 8.6 percent chance. A rational person doesnt bet on something with an 8.6% chance of happening. If you dont like the fact that trading down is a long shot, then thats on you. If you're gonna pimping it as a likelihood, I'm going to keep shooting it down.
We will see ........
 
3. TREVEYON HENDERSON, Ohio State (5-10, 204, 4.40, 2): Four-year starter. Largest production came as a freshman (1,248 yards, 15 touchdowns). “Helped himself at the combine,” one scout said. “Ran pretty fast. He’s really, really well-liked. He’s undersized. Does he run good? Yeah, but people value other positions more than running backs. I don’t think he’s going in the first.” Missed games in 2022-’23 with a variety of injuries. “The durability is the big question for him,” said a second scout. “He has to stay healthy. He went through injury problems a year ago, which really hurt the team. He’s got good feet. I don’t know if he has elite vision like some other guys. I wouldn’t put him in the first but because his hands are good enough and he’s a big-play threat I could see him going in the second. He’s a great guy. He’ll be great in the locker room no matter where he goes. I never saw him as having great vision to be a consistent inside runner.” Finished with 590 carries for 3,761 (6.4) and 42 TDs to go with 77 receptions for 853 (11.1) and six scores. “He’s got pick and slide and movement and balance,” a third scout said. “Really good hands. He’s a rotational starter. Maybe second round.” Five-star recruit from Hopewell, Va., ranked as the No. 1 prep back in the U.S. “Mid-round type guy,” a fourth scout said. “Not dynamic or anything like that. Just a steady Eddie guy.”

Been saying durability and lack of vision scare the hell out of me with him.
Hes who I really want.
 
The person I was making the point to predicted they would. That prediction seems foolish to me based on their history
What's foolish about predicting we could move down a few spots for an extra pick????? Part of what you are leaving out is we don't often draft in the top 15 AND have as many needs. But yeah, it's foolish we won't leverage our high pick for another pick. C'mon man......

I have a feeling we will get it back ........
I don't see it happening
 
I think Giddens' rushing style kind of belies his athletic talent. He kind of has this shifty, stop-start, spin out of tackles style like he's a 200 lb scat back, but he's 212 and runs a 4.43. And he's got elite short-area burst metrics. Giddens could probably drop his shoulder and power over half the dudes on defense like a Judkins, he just doesn't want to.

As a pure rusher, I'm sold on him. I think he's a 2nd-3rd type guy. You probably want to pair him with a more capable passing-game back for negative game script situations, but in a favorable situation, you could feed him 20 carries and get 100 yards.
You would think he is in the mix with having their OL coach on the staff.
 
Im just going off of their tendencies. Based on their history, if I was on a sportsbook Im not making a bet that they trade. The person I was making the point to predicted they would. That prediction seems foolish to me based on their history
Is this you......talking about trading down????? (LOL)


I think getting a future 1 is very far fetched having just the 12th pick. Do think we can find a small trade back and get us either a 3rd or a 4th back
A 2026 1st has the same value now as a 2025 2nd, and moving down to 18 and below is where the difference begins to be valued at a 2nd. 19/20 is more reasonable for a 2nd round value. We move down there and a 2026 1st is definitely a possibility.
 
Is this you......talking about trading down????? (LOL)



A 2026 1st has the same value now as a 2025 2nd, and moving down to 18 and below is where the difference begins to be valued at a 2nd. 19/20 is more reasonable for a 2nd round value. We move down there and a 2026 1st is definitely a possibility.
That wasnt a prediction lol. That was me saying we should. Two different things
 
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