Misleading stats about Marion Barber short yardage production last year?!

[LarryCanadian]

Does everyone remember the 1st game of this season broadcast where the announcers/commentators were saying that one reason Marion Barber hasn't gotten more carries was that despite his hard running style Barber had one of the lowest success ratios getting first downs on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 or something like that. The next week, Moose repeated that information based on the first week. Nobody ever displayed some stats or graphics, just made this general comment.

This week I read that of Barbers 14 touchdowns running last year, 9 were from 3 yards or less. I think the original comments were about 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1, not "short yardage", but I think they were highly misleading.

As a team overall, and especially for a Parcells team, I thought our running in short yardage was bad last year overall. Jones was bad as well. But if the original commentators are not including "touchdowns" in the stats for "first downs" that is highly misleading.

I thought Barber ran well on short yards last year other than occasionally trying to bounce it outside and being unsuccessful. I definately think he is far more effective in this role than Jones is, who is a better runner in space. Barber is stronger, pushes the pile better, dives more agressively, and breaks more tackles or at least carries the tackler for that extra yard. Jones is running hard this year, but he isn't as natural at short yards as Barber is.

Does anyone know where to find those types of stats. I think the commentators were a bit inaccurate or misleading if they only looked at 1 yard runs or 1 and two yard runs on 3rd or 4th down. That is a very small sample size. Taking away Barbers touchdown runs (which I can't say they did or didn't) would make a huge difference.

LarryCanadian

 

[Hoofbite]

I thought the stat was very misleading as well. Good thing Barber buried it with a massive TD run.

 

[RomoIsBack]

I thought the stat was very misleading as well. Good thing Barber buried it with a massive TD run.

u aint lie about that

 

[theogt]

Right here.

 

[burmafrd]

Of course then one has to go back and look at each play and figure out when you can blame MB, the line= or maybe the D just made a great play.
Just spouting numbers means NOTHING.

 

[AdamJT13]

Last year, Barber converted only 10 out of 20 carries on third-and-1 or fourth-and-1. That was the worst percentage (50 percent) for any player with more than seven of those attempts.

The odd thing is, the rest of the team went 5-for-5. Julius was 2-for-2, Bledsoe was 2-for-2, and Romo went 1-for-1.

 

[LarryCanadian]

Thx The ogt!

Now does that include the 9 TD's he scored from 3 yards or less? I'm guessing that is just "1st down" stats. So add 9 TD runs to that and he appears better. Plus Barber made quite a few 3rd down connversions from farther than 3 yards out.

Julius isn't in top 20, so I don't understand the arguement. Even if Barber wasn't the best, why would the announcers bring it up if Julius was even further down the list.

What bothered me alot last year (and the year before that) is when it was 2nd and short (a great down because of so many options) Julius gained nothing or lost yards, putting the team in 3rd and short or even falling back to 3rd and mid distance. Happened a few times. We were predictable, and didn't block that great in those cases too.

LarryCanadian

 

[LarryCanadian]

Adam? Does that include Touchdowns or only 1st down conversions?

Thanks,

Larry

 

[AdamJT13]

Right here.

That's not the one they were citing. And Barber finished 20th in the stat at your link, not last (the list is just the top 20, so anyone outside the top 20 isn't on the list).

 

[Clove]

This year, I've seen a repertoire of Barber moves. I've seen him juke guys in space, plow through for the touch 1st down, burst through for huge yardage. I've seen him juke at the LOS and hit the corner and turn the corner.

I've seen him take screen passes and get 25 yards off of them. I've seen him catch the ball out of the back field and pick of great yardage. I've seen him do all of the things we say only Jones can do, so Barber is NOT just a short yardage back anymore.

 

[Clove]

Last year, Barber converted only 10 out of 20 carries on third-and-1 or fourth-and-1. That was the worst percentage (50 percent) for any player with more than seven of those attempts.

The odd thing is, the rest of the team went 5-for-5. Julius was 2-for-2, Bledsoe was 2-for-2, and Romo went 1-for-1.

I'm pretty sure it's much better this year, what's his stats on that this year?

 

[AdamJT13]

Adam? Does that include Touchdowns or only 1st down conversions?

Thanks,

Larry

Touchdowns are always considered first down conversions (and count as first downs).

 

[RomoIsBack]

thanks for the link

 

[AdamJT13]

I'm pretty sure it's much better this year, what's his stats on that this year?

He's 1-for-1 so far. His 18-yard TD run has been his only attempt on third- or fourth-and-1 this season.

 

[LarryCanadian]

Funny thing is, I just went to the same site OGT referenced and looked up 1st downs per carry!

Who was 4th best in the NFL last year. Marion Barber the 3rd. 46/135

Barber was 7 of 15 on TD attempts inside 3 yard line, and if I remember, when he didn't make it 1st or 2nd try he often made it on 2nd or 3rd try hehe. Rarely, completely denied. LJ was 12 of 15 attempts to lead league.

Barber was 6th in NFL % touchdowns inside 10 yard line. 13 of 31. Again, he might not have got there on 1st run, but with 15 TD's he got there on 2nd or 3rd try sometimes.

Barber was 2nd in NFL on "STUFFS/Carry" only being stuffed on 6 of 135 carries. That is pretty good no? If I'm reading that right! This is a huge stat. Barber simply rarely loses yardage or gains nothing. That is the way Emmitt Smith was in his best days too.

In comparisson. Julius Jones was STUFFED 26 times last year.

I still think those stats the commentators quoted were a bit misleading and poor justification. That being said, I like our 2 headed monster, and in general like the way Phillips plays to players' strengths (and Jason Garrett seems to do the same!)

LarryCanadian

 

[LarryCanadian]

Thanks for clarifying 1st down/TD stats AdamJT13.

Do you mind me asking where you get the majority of your stats from? Is it a particular website or an official stat book? Please don't tell me it's from your CRAY Computer-like brain as we are already humbled enough by your CAP and other stat information.

Thanks

LarryCanadian

 

[speedkilz88]

Thx The ogt!

Now does that include the 9 TD's he scored from 3 yards or less? I'm guessing that is just "1st down" stats. So add 9 TD runs to that and he appears better. Plus Barber made quite a few 3rd down connversions from farther than 3 yards out.

Julius isn't in top 20, so I don't understand the arguement. Even if Barber wasn't the best, why would the announcers bring it up if Julius was even further down the list.

What bothered me alot last year (and the year before that) is when it was 2nd and short (a great down because of so many options) Julius gained nothing or lost yards, putting the team in 3rd and short or even falling back to 3rd and mid distance. Happened a few times. We were predictable, and didn't block that great in those cases too.

LarryCanadian

You can't just add those 9 tds, they were counted if they were on 3rd or 4th down. If he scored them on 1st or 2nd down they didn't count and shouldn't count.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Barber was 2nd in NFL on "STUFFS/Carry" only being stuffed on 6 of 135 carries. That is pretty good no?

How can this be, if he failed to convert ten times on 3rd- or 4th-and-one? What's the definition of a stuff?

 

[theogt]

Funny thing is, I just went to the same site OGT referenced and looked up 1st downs per carry!

Who was 4th best in the NFL last year. Marion Barber the 3rd. 46/135

That's a bit misleading, because Barber's carries last year were skewed towards short yardage carries.

 

[theogt]

That's not the one they were citing. And Barber finished 20th in the stat at your link, not last (the list is just the top 20, so anyone outside the top 20 isn't on the list).

It's the closest published stat that shows what they were talking about.