MM explains his thought process of going for 2

[cffl2323]

What's really scary is Jean-Jacques Taylor doesn't get it either, and gets paid to write about this stuff. Seems like a lost cause trying to convince those that think it was a bad decision.

 

[CowboyRoy]

They DID miss the 2 point conversion. And they WON.
I'll keep asking: what's your plan if they kick the XP and then miss the 2-pointer late? What is your plan then if it isn't to attempt an onside kick?

You only need the onside kick if you FAIL at the 2-point conversion. Conversely, if you fail at the 2-point conversion, NO MATTER WHEN YOU FAIL, you will always need the onside kick.

What is your plan of you don't make the onsides kick?

Your plan you have to make an onsides kick. My plan you just have to make a 2 point conversion. Simple stuff.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Doesn't have to be. If the value of going for it early is "to know whether it's a two-score game or not," then you simply approach it as if it is regardless.

I've answered this one for you before, but you've ignored it.

It's a terrible strategy to rush through the second drive if you end up making the 2-pointer: you've just left time on the clock for the other team to mount a FG drive and beat you in regulation. This is why you want the information early: so you can avoid things liike this.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Wonder how some of these people would feel had we lost? LOL The miracle made them believe in Mike Jesus....I'd say with the time remaining what MM did would not work 99.9% of the time with the failed 2 pt conversion at that point.

Mike McCarthy is the new genius. No one has ever thought of that idea but him.

I got news for them. Everyone has thought of it, and they don't do it because its stupid.

If we now see everyone else doing the same thing, I will eat crow.

Ill tell you what, that onsides kick attempt was genius.

 

[CowboyRoy]

its smart not stupid it does change players perceptions of how the game is going which could affect playa
nd even if it "doesnt change anything" then why does it matter one way or the other, according to the logic of it not changing anything you may as well flip a coin to go or not go.

So why does the rest of the NFL kick it there? Have you ever seen ANYONE do what MM did? Lets start there.

 

[cffl2323]

I've answered this one for you before, but you've ignored it.

It's a terrible strategy to rush through the second drive if you end up making the 2-pointer: you've just left time on the clock for the other team to mount a FG drive and beat you in regulation. This is why you want the information early: so you can avoid things liike this.

We have plenty of experience scoring the "game winning score" too early, only for Aaron Rodgers to kick us in the balls.

 

[Future]

I've answered this one for you before, but you've ignored it.

It's a terrible strategy to rush through the second drive if you end up making the 2-pointer: you've just left time on the clock for the other team to mount a FG drive and beat you in regulation. This is why you want the information early: so you can avoid things liike this.

I didn't ignore it, I just think it's a poor answer.

 

[JD_KaPow]

What is your plan of you don't make the onsides kick?

Your plan you have to make an onsides kick. My plan you just have to make a 2 point conversion. Simple stuff.

I don't see what you're not getting. My plan is to make the 2-point conversion too. I don't plan on failing at it. If the Cowboys converted that 2-pointer, there would have been no need for the onside kick. But they did fail, so they needed an onside kick. If you fail the 2-pointer, you need the onside kick, NO MATTER WHEN YOU FAIL. If you succeed at the 2-pointer, you don't need an onside kick, NO MATTER WHEN YOU SUCCEED.

Again, what's your plan if they fail the 2-pointer at the end? As far as I can tell, your plan is to lose. That's a way worse plan than trying an onside kick.

 

[CowboyRoy]

And if you fail to convert the 2 point conversion at the very end of the game ? The onside kick is still difficult, with less time to execute and get into FG range.

Why would I assume I am going to miss the 2 point conversion?

 

[JD_KaPow]

I didn't ignore it, I just think it's a poor answer.

Why? Do you really think it's a good strategy to tie the game with 1:40 left rather than tie it with 30 seconds or less left?

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Nobody gives a damn if its executed properly. That's just what it comes down. That's mostly coaching......are you putting your players in the best position to succeed and execute? Hearing his explanation....it seems like he was attempting to do just that.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I don't see what you're not getting. My plan is to make the 2-point conversion too. I don't plan on failing at it. If the Cowboys converted that 2-pointer, there would have been no need for the onside kick. But they did fail, so they needed an onside kick. If you fail the 2-pointer, you need the onside kick, NO MATTER WHEN YOU FAIL. If you succeed at the 2-pointer, you don't need an onside kick, NO MATTER WHEN YOU SUCCEED.

Again, what's your plan if they fail the 2-pointer at the end? As far as I can tell, your plan is to lose. That's a way worse plan than trying an onside kick.

Pretty simple...……….what is easier? If he used analytics at all, it should have clued him in on that.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Why would I assume I am going to miss the 2 point conversion?

You wouldn't. You assume you have a 50% shot at the 2-point conversion, NO MATTER WHEN YOU ATTEMPT IT. You make the decisions before you know the outcome. The Cowboys had a 50%ish chance of making the 2-point conversion when they did try it. The odds don't change depending on when you attempt it.

 

[LoneStar84]

For what it’s worth, I just asked my friend who has a Masters in Mathematics and a PHD in physics about this. I originally thought you should kick it first and then go for 2 at the end. But he says it makes more sense from a mathematical perspective to go for 2 first, basically for the same reason MM stated. He said that because the probability of converting the 2 point conversion is equal, regardless of whether you do it first or second, you would be in a more advantageous position to know as early as possible if the 2 point conversion is successful or not.

 

[CowboyRoy]

What's really scary is Jean-Jacques Taylor doesn't get it either, and gets paid to write about this stuff. Seems like a lost cause trying to convince those that think it was a bad decision.

LOL...…..because a the ONLY people that think it was a good one is about 10 people on the Cowboys chat room.

 

[Future]

Why? Do you really think it's a good strategy to tie the game with 1:40 left rather than tie it with 30 seconds or less left?

Not always, but this only matters if you're down 7, and there's too much context to have a hard rule on this.

You've said it yourself that a 2-pt conversion means scoring twice. So yes, I'm trying to score quickly down by 8 and giving myself a chance to get the ball back - onsides or with a stop.

 

[DCBoysfan]

I still think it’s a mistake
By kicking it’s a one procession game
If you don’t convert it’s still a 2 procession game

I think the point he is making is, either way, we would have needed to score twice, and he wanted to know early in the game how soon we needed to try and score twice.

I was yelling at the TV just kick the #$%^# XP, and make it an 8 point game.

 

[CowboyRoy]

We have plenty of experience scoring the "game winning score" too early, only for Aaron Rodgers to kick us in the balls.

So why score early? Was Rogers on the other team yesterday? What easier...…….stopping the Falcons once or recovering an onsides kick?

 

[JD_KaPow]

What is your plan of you don't make the onsides kick?

Your plan you have to make an onsides kick. My plan you just have to make a 2 point conversion. Simple stuff.

No! My plan is to EITHER make a 2-point conversion OR, if the attempt fails, attempt the onside kick. Your plan is to make a 2-point conversion or lose.

 

[Doomsday101]

Way I see it, there were 2 option go for the 2 right away or on next possession. I don't think 1 way is more right than they other in the end you still need a TD extra point and TD 2 point conversion. All it did by doing after the 1st TD was let the team know they would need another possession of the ball which we ended up getting. I really do not seeing 1 way of doing this as the only way.