MM explains his thought process of going for 2

[Lutonio]

There’s really no discussion to be had if there can’t be an agreement that 8 points is a one possession game.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I like how people keep saying "not knowing what you need" as if the scoreboard is just going to change. You know you need 7, 8 or 9.

I don't need an explanation on the logic. I get it. You know you need two scores early. I understand I swear. I know you need to get a 2-pt either way. I just think it is very stupid to choose a two-possession game with a weak defense, against a potent offense, with only 3 minutes left. That's ESPECIALLY true if you're not going to go for 2 the next time, which MM hasn't cited as his reason. It just makes no sense to close the window like that - you forced yourself into an onside kick with 3:00 left, when you didn't have to.

You're not choosing a two-possession game. That's the part you need to get. That's not the choice. You'd like to make the 2-pointer and avoid that entirely. You're only choosing WHEN to attempt the 2-pointer.

 

[JD_KaPow]

There’s really no discussion to be had if there can’t be an agreement that 8 points is a one possession game.

It's not, and thinking it is is the entire problem here.
An 8 point deficit is either a one-possession or a two-possession game. You don't know which until AFTER you attempt the 2-pointer. If you fail on the 2-pointer, well, it turns out it wasn't a one-possession game at all.

 

[DOUBLE WING]

Whats harder scoring once and making the two or scoring twice with one score having to come after an onsides kick?

Cmon buddy, this isn't rocket science. And the fact that nobody ever does what MM did more than verifies that.

Waiting to try the 2-point conversion until the second TD attempt doesn’t make it any easier to convert.

 

[ConstantReboot]

On the flipside, if he would have made the 2-point conversion, they would call him a genius.

 

[JD_KaPow]

On the flipside, if he would have made the 2-point conversion, they would call him a genius.

Here's the funny thing. If they make it and they score the TD later, the game almost certainly goes into overtime...and who knows what happens then?

 

[Lutonio]

It's not, and thinking it is is the entire problem here.
An 8 point deficit is either a one-possession or a two-possession game. You don't know which until AFTER you attempt the 2-pointer. If you fail on the 2-pointer, well, it turns out it wasn't a one-possession game at all.

Eight points IS one possession in football, whether you, analytics, or the zombified corpse of Vince Lombardi tries to argue otherwise.

If your logic, math, and analytics is becoming so twisted that you’re having to do mental acrobatics to deny this fact, then there is zero discussion to have here.

You can not like it. You can highlight the difference between scores and possession, but it won’t change that a team only needs a single possession to score 8 points.

I can understand people wanting to know sooner and wanting extra time to react, but you can’t plant your flag on the holy mountain of Math for one side and then ignore Math on the other.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Eight points IS one possession in football, whether you, analytics, or the zombified corpse of Vince Lombardi tries to argue otherwise.

If your logic, math, and analytics is becoming so twisted that you’re having to do mental acrobatics to deny this fact, then there is zero discussion to have here.

You can not like it. You can highlight the difference between scores and possession, but it won’t change that a team only needs a single possession to score 8 points.

I can understand people wanting to know sooner and wanting extra time to react, but you can’t plant your flag on the holy mountain of Math for one side and then ignore Math on the other.

This is silly semantics. You saw yesterday that Dallas did NOT get 8 points in one possession. Yes, it's possible to score 8 points in one possession, but why would you leave that as your only option if you didn't have to?

 

[Nav22]

Eight points IS one possession in football, whether you, analytics, or the zombified corpse of Vince Lombardi tries to argue otherwise.

If your logic, math, and analytics is becoming so twisted that you’re having to do mental acrobatics to deny this fact, then there is zero discussion to have here.

You can not like it. You can highlight the difference between scores and possession, but it won’t change that a team only needs a single possession to score 8 points.

I can understand people wanting to know sooner and wanting extra time to react, but you can’t plant your flag on the holy mountain of Math for one side and then ignore Math on the other.

You’re down 8 points.

You score a TD and fail on the 2-point conversion, which has about a 50% success rate historically.

Did that 8-point deficit end up being a 1-score deficit or a 2-score deficit?

 

[stiletto]

It's not, and thinking it is is the entire problem here.
An 8 point deficit is either a one-possession or a two-possession game. You don't know which until AFTER you attempt the 2-pointer. If you fail on the 2-pointer, well, it turns out it wasn't a one-possession game at all.

So you are saying a 7 point game is also not one possession? You know PAT's aren't a given either right?

 

[JD_KaPow]

So you are saying a 7 point game is also not one possession? You know PAT's aren't a given either right?

Yes, and we're reminded of it a few times a year. But they're close enough to 100% that they never really change our strategic/tactical calculations. Two-pointers are emphatically not close enough to 100% that we should simply round up.

 

[stiletto]

Yes, and we're reminded of it a few times a year. But they're close enough to 100% that they never really change our strategic/tactical calculations. Two-pointers are emphatically not close enough to 100% that we should simply round up.

I think you are confusing "score" vs "possession". 7 and 8 points are 100% one possession deficits. You need two scoring plays but only one possession to meet the points.....

 

[Future]

You're not choosing a two-possession game. That's the part you need to get. That's not the choice. You'd like to make the 2-pointer and avoid that entirely. You're only choosing WHEN to attempt the 2-pointer.

You're choosing a 50/50 chance at a 2 possession game...so I guess it's choosing the chance of one.

Stop telling me what I do and don't get. You keep repeating yourself, doesn't make it more right the number of times you say it.

 

[Rockport]

Except for the fact that it was absolutely the right call, for exactly the reason MM gave.

It is the right call to make as long as the players know the reasoning. My thought at the time is "will this deflate the players?"

 

[Aviano90]

Anybody ready to agree to disagree? Two strategies can exist.

 

[eromeopolk]

Kudos to one poster here ( not sure who ) for nailing this 100%

They question his football IQ. Last week he should have kicked the field goal and this week, he should have kicked the extra point.

The game is called FOOT ball.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I think you are confusing "score" vs "possession". 7 and 8 points are 100% one possession deficits. You need two scoring plays but only one possession to meet the points.....

I don't really care what you call it. You can't count on the 2-pointer either way, and if you can leave yourself alternative options, you should.

Actually, I do care what you call it, because calling it a "one-possession game" tends to make people complacent, as if the two-pointer were a given.

If you're down 8, you might be able to get it all in one possession, but there's a good chance you won't. That's what you need to know to make decisions; the terminology is irrelevant.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It is the right call to make as long as the players know the reasoning. My thought at the time is "will this deflate the players?"

It sure didn't yesterday!

My thought is: geez, these are professional football players, not delicate flowers. I expect them to play hard whether they're ahead or behind.

 

[tomsanders921]

Kudos to one poster here ( not sure who ) for nailing this 100%

You also have to think that if you miss it, the opposing team will play a lot more conservative on offense too. If they are up by 9 instead of 8, chances are they won't try to pass the ball to get a first

 

[JD_KaPow]

You're choosing a 50/50 chance at a 2 possession game...so I guess it's choosing the chance of one.

Stop telling me what I do and don't get. You keep repeating yourself, doesn't make it more right the number of times you say it.

You're also choosing a 50/50 chance of a two-possession game. You're just doing it later. In your scenario, they go for two at the end and they either end up tied or down by 2 points and needing an onside kick. It's no different.

It's the nature of being down by 15 or 8. You need a two-pointer, which is exactly a 50-50 chance of a two-possession game.