TWOK11
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What happens if you fail to make the last 2 point conversion ? You kick the onside with less time, if any time is left, then you had earlier. It is better to kick an onside, recover and move into scoring range with 4 min then :10 seconds.
I’m not sure why this is difficult to understand.
It’s the psychological illusion of 8 points being a true one score game. Their minds perceive 8 points as being functionally equivalent to 7 points because you can overcome both deficits on a single drive. Statistically, the difference between 7 and 8 points is massive because of the difference in success rate of an XP vs a two point conversion. And when you attempt that two point conversion has no bearing on how likely you are to make it.
The reality is you want to know as soon as possible whether you need two or three possessions to overcome a 15 point deficit. Finding that out AFTER the second touchdown is ALWAYS to your disadvantage and to your opponents advantage, in EVERY case. This is statistical reality.