MMQB - You Can’t Play Like a Rookie in the Playoffs

percyhoward

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Prescott will become the 22nd rookie QB in NFL history to start a postseason game when his Cowboys take on the Packers. Of the 21 who have gone before him, only two have won more than one playoff game (Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez).
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The best advice they're qualified to give about winning in the playoffs as rookies might be "have a defense that can hold the opponent to 14 points or less."
 
ActualCowboysFan

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A good number of the 21 were mid season replacements, road teams. Exactly one of them was a full season starter of a one seed. Drawing conclusions from only partial data is easy, rampant and worthless.
 
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drawandstrike

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percyhoward said:
The best advice they're qualified to give about winning in the playoffs as rookies might be "have a defense that can hold the opponent to 14 points or less."
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This is a team game, and this needs to be stressed. Pointing out cherry picked data like 'Of 21 rookies who played postseason games none of them reached the Super Bowl' can create an impression that the biggest reason the team never reached the title game is BECAUSE the QB was a rookie.

There are many other reasons a team can lose in the postseason tournament other than 'rookie QB'.

Dallas is in a unique situation unlike many of the teams that were often FORCED to start rookie QB's in the postseason.

A vast majority of the times an NFL team had a rookie QB starting once the postseason commenced was DUE TO INJURY to more experienced starters.

A perfect example of this from this season would be the Oakland Raiders. 3 year starter Derek Carr went down, followed by backup QB Matt McGloin, which led to rookie QB Connor Cook getting his very first start vs. the Houston Texans in the wildcard round.

Many teams that have ended up starting rookies in the playoffs are teams that are early in a rebuilding cycle. It's rare you have a team that is mostly complete taking a rookie into the playoffs, with an above average offense coupled with an above average defense.

Dallas may have been FORCED to start Dak Prescott at the beginning of the season, but by game 8 they had the option of going back to Tony Romo once he was recovered from his injury, and the team opted to stick with Prescott.

Dallas isn't being FORCED to start Dak in the post season due to injury, and it's also in the unique position of having probably the best back up QB in the league ready to come in should disaster strike.

Dallas isn't at the beginning or the middle of a rebuilding cycle; the team has 1 of the strongest offenses in the league and a defense that is playing above average.

Another factor that aids Prescott in his quest in breaking the NFL's Rookie QB Super Bowl curse is the fact he'll only have to win 2 HOME games to get there, having guided Dallas to a 13-3 record, something that secured the team a 1st round playoff bye. A team with a rookie QB starting often doesn't escape having to play that extra game in the wild card round, meaning the rookie has to win THREE games in a row to reach the championship title game.

Also how many of these 21 rookies were being forced to play road games in the playoffs? How many had the #1 seed and had 2 home games to win to reach the Super Bowl? Not very many, I'll bet.

Now add in this factor: the first playoff game Prescott will start is against a defense he's already seen and led his team to victory over earlier this year. How many of the 21 rookies that came before him had to win just 2 games to reach the Super Bowl, the first game being against a team already handily defeated in the regular season with that rookie as the starter?

Of all the rookies that have attempted this before Prescott, how many had the NFL's #1 rusher sharing the backfield with them? I'm pretty sure that # is likely not larger than 1 and is likely 0.


These are the factors that come into play to give Dak Prescott probably the BEST shot at breaking the rookie Super Bowl curse. He's in a FAR better position on a very strong team than the rookies that attempted this before him.
 
DallasEast

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Stryker44 said:
I think the Giants broke him mind, body, and soul. Just like Sanchez was broken mind, body, and soul in 2009.
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Stryker44 said:
I think he has a fixed ceiling, like RGIII. Multiple defensive formations - he can't handle them.
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Stryker44 said:
Didn't RGIII graduate in 3 years with a 3.4?
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Honestly, I have given serious thought of PAYING you to change your avatar to a Washington based one. I can't stand Rowdy, period, but even he shouldn't be abstractly associated with your... creative commentary. It ain't right.
 
Direwolf63

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Stryker44 said:
Didn't RGIII graduate in 3 years with a 3.4?
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Well for starters, RGIII was despised in his own locker room.
He played in a gimmick offense because that's all he could handle. Being intelligent isn't the same as being able to process loads of information in a few seconds that a QB must do. RGIII clearly cannot do this no matter what his IQ is.

On the other hand, Prescott has already proven that he can do this. And he has become a locker room leader. The players love him.

Trying to compare the 2 is laughable. But not surprising coming from a Commanders fan.
 
ScipioCowboy

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Dak has "looked like a rookie" a few times this year (as much as the expression is used as a metaphor for struggling) but that was against defenses with a specific and talented set of personnel. The Packers don't have that personnel. Not even close. Neither do the Falcons. It's debatable whether or not the Seahawks have it.

The Packers simply don't have the talent to stop Dak from doing what he does well.
 
hornitosmonster

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If he does play like a "rookie" for the first two quarters do the Cowboys go down with the sinking ship or move to Romo?
 

rynochop

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hornitosmonster said:
If he does play like a "rookie" for the first two quarters do the Cowboys go down with the sinking ship or move to Romo?
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Yeah, that's the question..if he's missing open receivers and throws a pic or two I could see it. Tony isn't getting all those first team practice reps solely to help the defense
 
kramskoi

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DFWJC said:
I think we all know by now that Dak is very different than most rookies.

Anyway, Green Bay's top priority by far will be to slow down Zeke. If they can't do that, they have little chance of pulling off the mini-upset.
There should be plenty of room in that secondary for Dak to take advantage of. He and the team can do this.
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Cover 1 man is going to test the GB corners (Gunter was eaten alive in the first match-up)...especially with the return of Bryant. They absolutely must make the Packers pay when they decide to walk down and/or rotate the safety or leave one-on-one coverage on the outside. Beasley operating out of the slot and shallow is also a place where they did damage (with some good RAC) in week six. I can imagine some run blitzing and/or some chances taken to derail Elliot early, until perhaps GB can get a lead...they will be highly focused on stopping the run in the first quarter.
 
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