Mock off-season (long)

[MichaelWinicki]

Very well thought out post JT.

But I do think there will be a couple FA defensive linemen signed before draft weekend.

It won't happen during the first week of free agency, but I think it will happen.

 

[AsthmaField]

They could draft Donald but they wont at 16. Because drafting Donald is a reach there considering if Dallas doesnt pick him, he's probably going to fall all the way to probably tampa in RD2.

I like to read your posts, and I think you're a good poster... but I think you are 100% wrong here. Absolutely no way Donald falls to round 2 if we don't take him.

As for Lewan and Martin being better players at their positions than Donald is at his... I don't agree with that either, but that won't surprise you coming from me because you know I've been touting Donald since December.

Anyway, I often agree with you, but not on these points.

 

[xwalker]

Connor Shaw is a football player, son of a coach, he will be a 6 or 7th rd pick so there is not much exposure, I have a hard time throwing a 3rd pick for Murray or MaCarron. Shaw is a real fighter which is a problem sometimes as he is always going for that extra yard. He will be a backup with mobility I hope and smart about football. I also like the QB from Wyoming Wright although he runs a little bit like Manute Bol and not much difference in height.
I hope you are correct on the back issue for Tony, just seems we did not see his best last year after the "cyst on his back" drama, new QB is on the horizon no doubt.

Who are the middle round receivers you are liking this year? Watch this kid Jeff Janis 6'3" and ran a 4.4 good hands will probably be available in the 6th and 7th rd from Saginaw State.

I am really not sure who are the good fit ILB and OLB for our team if you have any insight post it when you can.

Shaw would be an interest UDFA. I need to check out Wright.

I have not studied the WRs in great detail. The Cowboys need another outside guy with size. They already have Beasley and Harris for the slot. A few that I've studied:

Martavis Bryant, 6-4, 4.4x forty, NFLDS rating 3rd round
He's thin and they say he was inconsistent catching the ball, but
he looked good in the game footage that I watched.

Kevin Norwood, 6-2, 4.48 forty, NFLDS rating 6th round
Just an ok athlete, but he knows how to get open and performed well
at a top college (Alabama).

L'Damian Washington, 6-4, 4.46 forty, NFLDS rating 7th round
A less developed version of Martavis Bryant above.

Dri Archer 5-8, 173, 4.26 forty, NFLDS rating 6th round
Super fast returner and possible slot WR.

I'll check out Janis.

There are a lot of possibilities for 4-3 LB. Most of the earlier round 4-3 guys look fine depending on where they're available.
Tevin Smith is a super coverage guy, but he is 6-3, 218 lbs.
Jordon Zumwalt and Jordan Tripp are solid mid round guys.
Kevin PIerre-Louis is fast but would be project.
Avery Williamson looks better than the write ups that I've seen. He is a late round project also.

 

[xwalker]

Absolutely no way Donald falls to round 2 if we don't take him.

As for Lewan and Martin being better players at their positions than Donald is at his... I don't agree with that either, but that won't surprise you coming from me because you know I've been touting Donald since December.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Donald anywhere from #16 to the early 2nd round. Despite the Senior Bowl and combine showings, many teams are reluctant to go outside the general parameters for measureables in the 1st round. He won't be on the draft boards of 3-4 teams and probably won't be rated as a 1st rounder by teams like the Giants that value size in their version of the 4-3.

Anytime you take a player in the 1st round, you have to consider that you are passing on multiple other really good players. That 1 or 2 inches lacking in height can be just enough to keep teams from being comfortable with a player in the 1st.

Lewan and Martin probably appeal to almost all teams which probably pushes their draft stock up regardless of how good they are relative to Donald.

 

[jterrell]

I wouldn't be shocked to see Donald anywhere from #16 to the early 2nd round. Despite the Senior Bowl and combine showings, many teams are reluctant to go outside the general parameters for measureables in the 1st round. He won't be on the draft boards of 3-4 teams and probably won't be rated as a 1st rounder by teams like the Giants that value size in their version of the 4-3.

Anytime you take a player in the 1st round, you have to consider that you are passing on multiple other really good players. That 1 or 2 inches lacking in height can be just enough to keep teams from being comfortable with a player in the 1st.

Lewan and Martin probably appeal to almost all teams which probably pushes their draft stock up regardless of how good they are relative to Donald.

Think you are dead wrong on Donald but we are on opposite sides of that anyways. Arguably the best DT in football is 6'1". You tell me a team that wouldn't take Geno Atkins and I'll tell you a stupid football team.
Plenty of quality DTs have been in that range for height and size. None have been that impressive with explosive measurables and only a handful have been better college players.
I absolutely guarantee you Donald will not see round 2 unless he suffers some major injury or had a major off-field break before the draft.
As to the 3-4 stuff maybe... but JJ Watt is the best 3-4 DE in football and he weighs 290 at 6'5". He's longer but essentially the same weight as Donald.
There's been significantly more guys in the 6'1" and 6'2" range and 290-299 make pro bowls than there have been guys over 6'5" or guys over 325.

As to the Lewan and Martin bit though there are reasons each isn't higher on boards that has little to do with their scheme fit.
Lewan is a talented guy with legit top 10 talent BUT some MAJOR off-field question marks. He's been accused of threatening a rape victim to defend a teammate and committing assault.
Wouldn't shock me if in Dallas he was 'in the box'.

Martin is a solid ready to play pro with questionable upside. He's probably best as a RG but has some RT ability and could be similar to Pugh from last year in that regard.
Also fair to note the only DL at the combine who gave Martin trouble was Aaron Donald. Martin is probably a similar player to Travis Frederick.
Technically sound and very smart but not the most gifted athlete. He should go in the bottom half of the 1st round but closer to 30 than 15.

 

[xwalker]

Think you are dead wrong on Donald but we are on opposite sides of that anyways. Arguably the best DT in football is 6'1". You tell me a team that wouldn't take Geno Atkins and I'll tell you a stupid football team.
Plenty of quality DTs have been in that range for height and size. None have been that impressive with explosive measurables and only a handful have been better college players.
I absolutely guarantee you Donald will not see round 2 unless he suffers some major injury or had a major off-field break before the draft.
As to the 3-4 stuff maybe... but JJ Watt is the best 3-4 DE in football and he weighs 290 at 6'5". He's longer but essentially the same weight as Donald.
There's been significantly more guys in the 6'1" and 6'2" range and 290-299 make pro bowls than there have been guys over 6'5" or guys over 325.

I'm a big fan of Donald, but...

I didn't say that 4-3 teams would take him off their board, just that some 4-3 teams might like one of the other guys in the top 4 DTs better.

Teams that run a 3-4 don't draft DTs that are under 6-1 in the first round. That eliminates about 1/2 of the teams. Now we're down to 16 teams.

Of the 16, many are going to have DT as lower priority than other positions. Depending on how you group them, there are about 10 other positions on a team. With 10 positions for 16 teams, the probability is that roughly 2 of the 16 will take a DT. The rankings are very close for the top 4 DTs. If a 4-3 team takes Nix, Hageman or Jernigan before Donald, now you're down to the probability that the 2nd 4-3 team that drafts a 1st round DT will take Donald and not one of the other 2. If that 2nd 4-3 team is at #20 and they decide to take one of the other DTs, then Donald goes from almost being drafted at #20 to dropping to the 2nd round just because of the decision of 1 team.

 

[visionary]

Donald is a good player but somewhat overhyped on this board
If the bears don't take him we are the only likely candidates until bottom rd 1

IMO he easily drops to mid 20s if bears don't take him and we trade down

 

[RS12]

Donald is a good player but somewhat overhyped on this board
If the bears don't take him we are the only likely candidates until bottom rd 1

IMO he easily drops to mid 20s if bears don't take him and we trade down

Cleveland is talking about a trade up with their number 26 in the first for Derek Carr. I d like Donald better at 26 with an extra 3rd.

 

[jterrell]

I dont agree because of whats being said by the Jones'. Saying they wont reach for a DT if there are better OL available. Couple that with all the OL they've cut, and triple that with wanting to keep Romo healthy. They could draft Donald but they wont at 16. Because drafting Donald is a reach there considering if Dallas doesnt pick him, he's probably going to fall all the way to probably tampa in RD2. This isnt about Donald isnt good enough, its about reach for a player they dont need to take that high and passing up a bigger piece. Trading down to grab Donald is a better choice by 1 million percent. If Martin, Lewan, Barr or Mosely are there at 16, you can bet Dallas phones will be ringing. And i could also see them picking either one of those guys over Donald.

Joyner is 5'9 hasnt played in the NFL and all of the sudden he's even better then Church? Unrealistic much?

Beasley has been doing it in the NFL. Can you wait to annoint all these players better then guys already in the NFL?

I have not heard stephen say they wont be big players. What i have heard him say is with them not knowing what the cap would be they didnt know how much they would have or what they would be able to do in FA. But he did say they would be going into FA to get DTs. Hell i'd take McDonald over a undersized rookie. Just because Donald is able to push around weak opponents in the ACC and Pitts tough schedule against the Navys and New Mexico States of the NCAA doesnt mean he'll be able to do it in the NFL. He's fast off the snap, but So are the G's in the NFL.

Scandrick contract isnt big, in 2015 he will make 4.5 mil in 2016 a shade under 4. Restructuring Scandrick was a really smart move.

Joyner is actually only 5'8" but he has this as his list of collegiate achievements.
National Champ Game best player on the field.
Best defensive player for the best defense in college football.
Unanimous All-American (by 8 different sources)
Jim Thrope Award Finalist
Bronko Nagurski Award Finalist
Ultimate Herbie Award Winner
All-ACC First Team
Coaches All-ACC First Team

Feel free to pick a game any game where he was bad. Where you said man he is just too short.

The Cowboys safeties played at a historically low level. Hard to consider that true NFL caliber performance.
Wanna argue Barbie Carpenter is better than CJ Mosley as LB too??

Beasley cant run more than one route in a row right now. Any hit knocks him 10 yards as he is so light.
Ellington is rated the 65th best player in this draft by Scouts INC. Beasley was an UDFA.
Ellington is a slot specialist and return guy who will very likely fall but his overall talent is high.

Stephen Jones: “The only thing the cap issues do with us is we can’t be big players in free agency, and I think history will tell you that being a big player in free agency is overrated and usually detrimental to the growth of a franchise, because a lot of these guys are leaving their other team for a reason.
“It’s usually because [those teams] don’t want to pay them and usually that’s for a reason.”

http://cowboysblog.***BANNED-URL***...-big-player-in-free-agency-is-overrated.html/

Scandrick: Your numbers are correct but do not account for handing him additional money. Can almost guarantee he won't be happy with his 1.5m base next year. Need to see those issues coming and not be bound to pay him 4 or 5m in cap cash to play for someone else. If you've hit on Webb and Wilcox as nickel coverage guys maybe he is expendable/tradeable at peak value for once. Scandrick lives in LA and it is expensive keeping up that LA basketball wives lifestyle.

Oh and there is this:
Dallas Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones said Monday that he has a clear "number-one goal" for the off-season.

"I think our biggest challenge is to get a better roster. Get us to where we can compete better. I think it will start with our defensive front," Jones said on KRLD-FM 105.3. "We spent a lot of energy in the offensive line the last couple of years. I think we did some good there...obviously we'll turn our attention to the front seven with the injuries and obviously the cap situation that we have."

http://www.***BANNED-URL***/sports/dallas-cowboys/headlines/20131230-stephen-jones.ece

 

[jterrell]

Donald is a good player but somewhat overhyped on this board
If the bears don't take him we are the only likely candidates until bottom rd 1

IMO he easily drops to mid 20s if bears don't take him and we trade down

in a world with no trades that might be true.

most authorities now have him rated top 15... hard to say we overrate him.

 

[Doc50]

Ehh I think you are being a little over dramatic with that. There are plenty of success stories with microfracture surgery. I will give you that its risky and some guys don't always come back, but 50/50 to ever play football again is overstating it for sure.

Most recent stats on athletes who've had microfracture surgery show that 40% return to previous form, 40% return to perform at a reduced level of proficiency, and 20% are never able to play their sport competitively.

So the odds of handling the rigors of NFL football after microfracture knee surgery are 40/60 at best.

The surgery simply consists of drilling holes in the bone beneath an area of articular cartilage deficit, in hopes that the bone/cartilage system is young and active enough to regenerate normal cartilage. There is no other way to regenerate cartilage, and this does not involve a repair, per se, as is common with meniscal cartilage. This has been a hot area of research for over 20 years, but there is nothing new on the horizon.

BTW, glucosamine, chondroitin, shark cartilage, tiger balls -- all just total BS. Nothing has been proven to strengthen, repair, or regenerate cartilage.

 

[xwalker]

Most recent stats on athletes who've had microfracture surgery show that 40% return to previous form, 40% return to perform at a reduced level of proficiency, and 20% are never able to play their sport competitively.

So the odds of handling the rigors of NFL football after microfracture knee surgery are 40/60 at best.

The surgery simply consists of drilling holes in the bone beneath an area of articular cartilage deficit, in hopes that the bone/cartilage system is young and active enough to regenerate normal cartilage. There is no other way to regenerate cartilage, and this does not involve a repair, per se, as is common with meniscal cartilage. This has been a hot area of research for over 20 years, but there is nothing new on the horizon.

BTW, glucosamine, chondroitin, shark cartilage, tiger balls -- all just total BS. Nothing has been proven to strengthen, repair, or regenerate cartilage.

Thanks for providing the numbers.

I thought that the glucosamine type supplements were just antiflamatory in nature. I took some of the combo supplements when my knees were sore and it seemed to have an effect similar to Advil but it seemed to last longer.

 

[jterrell]

Thanks for providing the numbers.

I thought that the glucosamine type supplements were just antiflamatory in nature. I took some of the combo supplements when my knees were sore and it seemed to have an effect similar to Advil but it seemed to last longer.

I have used gluco/chron for knees and shoulders.
They work great until I lift heavy... lol.
Probably have really no effect more than Advil.

Only thing I'd disagree with above is the 40% for Spencer to return to NFL.
I think the given data suggests that number is much closer to 60/40 for, though not all 60% is at Pro Bowl level.

Studies below indicate much higher success rates but number of studies seems very small and perhaps not as scientific as what Doc is using.
http://www.bio.davidson.edu/people/...ebsites/2010/Hendershot/clinical studies.html

 

[Macnalty]

Doc 50 thanks for those numbers I hope Spencer beats the odds and we should plan accordingly.
If Donald makes it to us at 16 I think in the first rd behind us we would only have to worry about NE grabbing him, which gives us some latitude for trading back into the mid twenties and still selecting him along with another 2nd/3rd depending on how good Jerry is this year at trading. That trade last year with SF 49ers was just a little bit better than nothing and not the norm for that type of trade, it indicates we were desperate(out of other options) no matter how you look at the compensation with T Williams. We should expect better this year.

Walker I will keep an eye out on Avery Williamson thanks for the heads up, I am in agreement with you on the two Jordans great mid round picks. Hard for me to squeeze in an Olineman this year when I see all the talent still available on Defense in the first three rounds.
Round 1 Pick 16: Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Round 2 Pick 15: Will Sutton, DT, Arizona State
Round 3 Pick 14: Terrence Brooks, FS, Florida State
Round 4 Pick 19: Jordan Tripp, OLB, Montana
Round 5 Pick 18: Andre Williams, RB, Boston College
Round 7 Pick 14: Brett Smith, QB, Wyoming
Round 7 Pick 16: Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley
Round 7 Pick 23: Howard Jones, OLB, Shepherd

 

[Doc50]

Thanks for providing the numbers.

I thought that the glucosamine type supplements were just antiflamatory in nature. I took some of the combo supplements when my knees were sore and it seemed to have an effect similar to Advil but it seemed to last longer.

Glucosamine naturally occurs in bone marrow, and is a precursor for the formation of major components of joint cartilage, hence, the hypothesis that higher levels of this might lead to structural improvement or durability of cartilage. But alas, no benefit has been found in multiple double-blind placebo-controlled clinical studies. By its chemical structure as an amino acid, it has no specific anti-inflammatory properties. When taken in higher doses, there is evidence to suggest there may be gradual damage to pancreatic cells, increasing the risk of diabetes.

 

[Doc50]

I have used gluco/chron for knees and shoulders.
They work great until I lift heavy... lol.
Probably have really no effect more than Advil.

Only thing I'd disagree with above is the 40% for Spencer to return to NFL.
I think the given data suggests that number is much closer to 60/40 for, though not all 60% is at Pro Bowl level.

Studies below indicate much higher success rates but number of studies seems very small and perhaps not as scientific as what Doc is using.
http://www.bio.davidson.edu/people/midorcas/animalphysiology/websites/2010/Hendershot/clinical studies.html

The study analysis referenced above essentially shows that young, healthy, high impact athletes fared below the 40% full recovery rate that I quoted in a statistical summary. The specific data of the one cited study reported that 66% of the trial subjects reported good or excellent results initially, but that only 57% of those were able to return to a level of function that they had before their surgery. That works out to about a 33% success rate.